Yes, it's definitely too early to trust this. When Katrina was at this stage, the forecast track was for Panama City.
It's not out of the question. Brian Norcross on WFOR/Miami just indicated that NOLA is in play, even though it is on the edge of the future-track.
Don't be surprised with further eastward tracking as we move forward...
I wonder how they can tell it won't stall out, like katrina did, and gather strength?
For Houstonians, the large shift to Galveston right now may actually end up being good news. Since in just 24 hours it has moved from around Brownsville to Corpus to Houston, odds are that it will shift at least a bit more east. Way too early to reach conclusions, but my gut thinks that this won't get much west of Pt. Arthur, leaving us on the cleaner side of the storm.
Galveston could still be in a heap of trouble, especially if the center gets near High Island, because storm surge could wash over the Bolivar P. and push in from the NE. No seawall on the north side of the island, much of which is below 10'.
From that graphic, it looks like the wife and I picked a good time to leave Houston to go on vacation. I just hope I don't come home to a house full of water :-P
Whoa.