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Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)
NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Announcements; News/Current Events; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneophelia; ophelia; tropical; weather
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To: GregB
Add me to the naughty list. How did you become one?

Done. How did I become one _______?

101 posted on 09/10/2005 7:27:07 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: jackbill
Maryland is bad enough, but how in the world could anyone live in Delaware?

ROFL!!!! after 21 years of living in Delaware there was no way on the planet earth I would live in Maryland. Considering I had grown up in NYC, Delaware was a wonderful change for me in 1982 - it started going down hill shortly after the start of Mike Castle's 2nd term as Governor. My husband grew up in Dover - he is thrilled being out of there.

I know the station you are talking about - WGMD. When I worked in radio in the 80s (the reason I wound up in Delaware) I did the legislative reports for them when the Legislature was in session.

I worked at a 50,000 watt FM station and so didn't have a squirrel problem - but we did have a mortality problem with snakes - one of those in the transmitter knocked us off the air everytime.

102 posted on 09/10/2005 7:29:28 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: GregB

I can't help you there, my FRiend.............


103 posted on 09/10/2005 7:30:24 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz
Well, I hope the storm moves out to sea in direct contradiction to current reports.

If Ophelia moves in, so will the reporters. My personal advice is to find Shep Smith and Geraldo and tie them up with duct tape, put them in a corner of a shelter, and release them a couple days after the storm. It will give you guys something constructive to do, and the rest of us will not have to increase our BP meds.

104 posted on 09/10/2005 7:35:11 PM PDT by Miss Marple (Lord, please look after Mozart Lover's son and keep him strong.)
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To: GregB
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005

 
...Ophelia again nearly stationary with little change in strength...

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward on Sunday.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

 
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coast should
monitor the progress of Ophelia.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude  75.8 west or about  255 miles
east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about  235 miles
south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 
Ophelia is nearly stationary and little motion is expected tonight
and Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. 
NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 47 mph.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is  978 mb...28.88 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.8 W.  Movement
...Stationary.  Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

105 posted on 09/10/2005 7:54:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: All
Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005

 
satellite imagery during the evening shows that the low-level center
of Ophelia has become partially exposed on the western edge of the
convection.  Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate a central pressure of 977-978 mb and an eyewall
open in the south semicircle.  Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb
are 79 kt in the southwest quadrant...while eyewall dropsondes in
the southeast and northeast quadrants indicated 60-65 kt surface
winds.  Since the aircraft data is essentially identical to the
previous flight...the initial intensity remains 70 kt.

Ophelia has drifted a little to the east-northeast over the past 6
hr but is now nearly stationary.  Water vapor imagery indicates
large mid/upper-level ridges centered over western Tennessee and
near 25n57w...with Ophelia in between.  The latest large-scale
model runs forecast this combination to keep Ophelia nearly
stationary for the next 2-3 days...followed by a slow generally
northward motion as the U. S. Ridge shifts eastward into the
altantic.  The guidance is still well spread...with the left
outliers of the GFDN and the Canadian calling for landfall in South
Carolina and the right outliers of the GFS and GFDL calling for the
storm to pass east of Cape Hatteras.  The new forecast track is
shifted a little to the right and a little slower than the previous
package...and is on the left side of the main envelope of guidance. 
The new track has a small loop in the first 24-36 hr...as much of
the guidance suggests that Ophelia will drift southward during part
of that time.

Ophelia continues to experience light to moderate westerly shear...
and water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air west of the cyclone. 
These have probably eroded the convective structure to some degree. 
However...the largest factor controlling the intensity is likely to
be sea surface temperatures and upwelling of cold water underneath
the slow-moving storm.  NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the
center is reporting an SST of 27.2c...and a drifting buoy south of
the center is reporting 24.4c...down almost 3c from before Ophelia
passed over it.  Elsewhere in the area...SSTs are between 27-28c
except in the relatively narrow Gulf Stream.  Should Ophelia move
as slowly as forecast...it may upwell enough cold water to suppress
development.  The GFDL...SHIPS...and superensemble all show a
little strengthening through 30 hr...and the intensity forecast
follows suit.  However...those models all forecast weakening after
36-48 hr.  The intensity forecast will not yet follow that
scenario...but it is a distinct possibility.

The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of the southeast
U. S. Coast with no changes at this time.  If Ophelia is to begin a
track like that of the GFDN or Canadian toward South Carolina...it
should happen within the next 24-36 hr.  Therefore...it is too
early to sound an all clear for any part of the area currently
under the Hurricane Watch.

Forecaster Beven

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      11/0300z 31.8n  75.8w    70 kt
 12hr VT     11/1200z 31.7n  75.8w    70 kt
 24hr VT     12/0000z 31.7n  76.1w    75 kt
 36hr VT     12/1200z 32.0n  76.4w    75 kt
 48hr VT     13/0000z 32.4n  76.7w    75 kt
 72hr VT     14/0000z 33.5n  77.5w    75 kt
 96hr VT     15/0000z 35.5n  76.5w    45 kt...inland
120hr VT     16/0000z 38.0n  73.0w    35 kt...over water

106 posted on 09/10/2005 7:55:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse
The three day forecast includes the SE portion of VA, and the five day forecast includes a whole lot more of VA...

We could use a little rain.

107 posted on 09/10/2005 8:00:24 PM PDT by EverOnward
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To: Gabz

Sorry, that was my cheezy way of asking if Ophelia was on her way to your neck of the woods.


108 posted on 09/10/2005 8:10:11 PM PDT by lainie
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To: Gabz

Dang it, Gabz, one of the new models has it coming right at you!


109 posted on 09/10/2005 8:12:43 PM PDT by GummyIII (If you have the ability, it's your responsibility." Marine Sgt. John Place, Silver Star recipient)
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To: NautiNurse

Why wont you post the cone graphic at the head of the thread that updates as the storm moves? I see you posted it on the other thread, but a couple of pages in.

As someone who has used FR (and I mean up to the last minute before I bugged out on Frances) when hurricanes were coming or threatening, I can tell you that graphic is one of the first things I looked for.

Whoever used to do the threads had that graphic. It might have been "nwtx" or whatever his handle is.

If it was at the top of the thread it made things much easier. Just hit the hurricane thread and there it was.
I guess I could try to post it, but it wouldn't be at the top of the thread where it needs to be by the time I tried.


110 posted on 09/10/2005 8:13:18 PM PDT by Praxeus
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To: Praxeus

rainfall will be the biggest story..so far we have been lucky it was stalled ove the ocean vs near the shore


111 posted on 09/10/2005 8:16:08 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

you in carolina?

Well.. I guess for you guys rain is a big issue. Meaning that the terrain of NC & SC cant handle bunches of flooding and rain like Florida can.

I wish the best for all of you.


112 posted on 09/10/2005 8:18:09 PM PDT by Praxeus
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To: NautiNurse

Ok.. I Figured out how to do it. Still not at the top of the thread where it should be.

113 posted on 09/10/2005 8:29:44 PM PDT by Praxeus
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To: CindyDawg

They know nothing on this one right now.


114 posted on 09/10/2005 8:30:20 PM PDT by beyond the sea ("I was just the spark the universe chose ....." --- Cindy Sheehan (barf alert))
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To: Nathan Zachary
It's funny but one neighbour can have his brick chimney knocked off of the house and have a large sized tree uprooted on the opposite side of the front yard. No damage in between either. Surrounding neighbours may have wood fence sections blown down and I could attribute that to simple high winds that blow in right before the thunderstorms hit. The damage limited to the one house I referenced sure sounds to me like a small tornado skipping up and down into the clouds. Invariably though they'll say it was minor straight line wind damage.

I don't know what I've done in my life to deserve to end up in tornado alley. I have to admit I've overcome some of my fear over the years. At least I no longer run from the front door to the back door scanning the sky for funnel clouds and tornado's.

Oh, did I mention that while I was fretfully running back and forth, I had my purse on my shoulder and a full grown cat in each arm? Don't know how I'd handle that now with a full grown lab, the same two cats and a squirmy terrier mix.

It's not Bush's fault but my Mom's!
115 posted on 09/10/2005 8:30:46 PM PDT by Sally'sConcerns
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To: Miss Marple

I like your idea!!!!!!!!


116 posted on 09/10/2005 8:31:16 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: lainie

No apology needed, FRiend.........my answer was just my cheezy way of saying I get my local weather in regard to these storms right here :)


117 posted on 09/10/2005 8:33:52 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Miss Marple
If Ophelia moves in, so will the reporters. My personal advice is to find Shep Smith and Geraldo and tie them up with duct tape, put them in a corner of a shelter, and release them a couple days after the storm. It will give you guys something constructive to do, and the rest of us will not have to increase our BP meds.

LOL ............. can you include Gloria's son too?

118 posted on 09/10/2005 8:34:53 PM PDT by beyond the sea ("I was just the spark the universe chose ....." --- Cindy Sheehan (barf alert))
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To: GummyIII

I saw that model - told hubby about it - . His attitude was similar to mine - we are doing grocery shopping when he gets home from work tomorrow and will add some extra supplies to the list and beyond that we are as prepared as we can be.


119 posted on 09/10/2005 8:38:48 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Praxeus

The links at the top of the thread provide all the information.

Heavy graphics cause problems for folks on dial up.


120 posted on 09/10/2005 8:42:24 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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