Ok.. I Figured out how to do it. Still not at the top of the thread where it should be.
Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Done. How did I become one _______?
ROFL!!!! after 21 years of living in Delaware there was no way on the planet earth I would live in Maryland. Considering I had grown up in NYC, Delaware was a wonderful change for me in 1982 - it started going down hill shortly after the start of Mike Castle's 2nd term as Governor. My husband grew up in Dover - he is thrilled being out of there.
I know the station you are talking about - WGMD. When I worked in radio in the 80s (the reason I wound up in Delaware) I did the legislative reports for them when the Legislature was in session.
I worked at a 50,000 watt FM station and so didn't have a squirrel problem - but we did have a mortality problem with snakes - one of those in the transmitter knocked us off the air everytime.
I can't help you there, my FRiend.............
If Ophelia moves in, so will the reporters. My personal advice is to find Shep Smith and Geraldo and tie them up with duct tape, put them in a corner of a shelter, and release them a couple days after the storm. It will give you guys something constructive to do, and the rest of us will not have to increase our BP meds.
...Ophelia again nearly stationary with little change in strength...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be shifted northward on Sunday. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 75.8 west or about 255 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is nearly stationary and little motion is expected tonight and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.8 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
satellite imagery during the evening shows that the low-level center of Ophelia has become partially exposed on the western edge of the convection. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate a central pressure of 977-978 mb and an eyewall open in the south semicircle. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb are 79 kt in the southwest quadrant...while eyewall dropsondes in the southeast and northeast quadrants indicated 60-65 kt surface winds. Since the aircraft data is essentially identical to the previous flight...the initial intensity remains 70 kt.
Ophelia has drifted a little to the east-northeast over the past 6 hr but is now nearly stationary. Water vapor imagery indicates large mid/upper-level ridges centered over western Tennessee and near 25n57w...with Ophelia in between. The latest large-scale model runs forecast this combination to keep Ophelia nearly stationary for the next 2-3 days...followed by a slow generally northward motion as the U. S. Ridge shifts eastward into the altantic. The guidance is still well spread...with the left outliers of the GFDN and the Canadian calling for landfall in South Carolina and the right outliers of the GFS and GFDL calling for the storm to pass east of Cape Hatteras. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the right and a little slower than the previous package...and is on the left side of the main envelope of guidance. The new track has a small loop in the first 24-36 hr...as much of the guidance suggests that Ophelia will drift southward during part of that time.
Ophelia continues to experience light to moderate westerly shear... and water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air west of the cyclone. These have probably eroded the convective structure to some degree. However...the largest factor controlling the intensity is likely to be sea surface temperatures and upwelling of cold water underneath the slow-moving storm. NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center is reporting an SST of 27.2c...and a drifting buoy south of the center is reporting 24.4c...down almost 3c from before Ophelia passed over it. Elsewhere in the area...SSTs are between 27-28c except in the relatively narrow Gulf Stream. Should Ophelia move as slowly as forecast...it may upwell enough cold water to suppress development. The GFDL...SHIPS...and superensemble all show a little strengthening through 30 hr...and the intensity forecast follows suit. However...those models all forecast weakening after 36-48 hr. The intensity forecast will not yet follow that scenario...but it is a distinct possibility.
The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of the southeast U. S. Coast with no changes at this time. If Ophelia is to begin a track like that of the GFDN or Canadian toward South Carolina...it should happen within the next 24-36 hr. Therefore...it is too early to sound an all clear for any part of the area currently under the Hurricane Watch.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/0300z 31.8n 75.8w 70 kt 12hr VT 11/1200z 31.7n 75.8w 70 kt 24hr VT 12/0000z 31.7n 76.1w 75 kt 36hr VT 12/1200z 32.0n 76.4w 75 kt 48hr VT 13/0000z 32.4n 76.7w 75 kt 72hr VT 14/0000z 33.5n 77.5w 75 kt 96hr VT 15/0000z 35.5n 76.5w 45 kt...inland 120hr VT 16/0000z 38.0n 73.0w 35 kt...over water
We could use a little rain.
Sorry, that was my cheezy way of asking if Ophelia was on her way to your neck of the woods.
Dang it, Gabz, one of the new models has it coming right at you!
Why wont you post the cone graphic at the head of the thread that updates as the storm moves? I see you posted it on the other thread, but a couple of pages in.
As someone who has used FR (and I mean up to the last minute before I bugged out on Frances) when hurricanes were coming or threatening, I can tell you that graphic is one of the first things I looked for.
Whoever used to do the threads had that graphic. It might have been "nwtx" or whatever his handle is.
If it was at the top of the thread it made things much easier. Just hit the hurricane thread and there it was.
I guess I could try to post it, but it wouldn't be at the top of the thread where it needs to be by the time I tried.
rainfall will be the biggest story..so far we have been lucky it was stalled ove the ocean vs near the shore
you in carolina?
Well.. I guess for you guys rain is a big issue. Meaning that the terrain of NC & SC cant handle bunches of flooding and rain like Florida can.
I wish the best for all of you.
Ok.. I Figured out how to do it. Still not at the top of the thread where it should be.
They know nothing on this one right now.
I like your idea!!!!!!!!
No apology needed, FRiend.........my answer was just my cheezy way of saying I get my local weather in regard to these storms right here :)
LOL ............. can you include Gloria's son too?
I saw that model - told hubby about it - . His attitude was similar to mine - we are doing grocery shopping when he gets home from work tomorrow and will add some extra supplies to the list and beyond that we are as prepared as we can be.
The links at the top of the thread provide all the information.
Heavy graphics cause problems for folks on dial up.
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