Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005
...Ophelia again nearly stationary with little change in strength...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward on Sunday. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coast should
monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 75.8 west or about 255 miles
east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 miles
south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is nearly stationary and little motion is expected tonight
and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 47 mph.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.8 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005
satellite imagery during the evening shows that the low-level center
of Ophelia has become partially exposed on the western edge of the
convection. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate a central pressure of 977-978 mb and an eyewall
open in the south semicircle. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb
are 79 kt in the southwest quadrant...while eyewall dropsondes in
the southeast and northeast quadrants indicated 60-65 kt surface
winds. Since the aircraft data is essentially identical to the
previous flight...the initial intensity remains 70 kt.
Ophelia has drifted a little to the east-northeast over the past 6
hr but is now nearly stationary. Water vapor imagery indicates
large mid/upper-level ridges centered over western Tennessee and
near 25n57w...with Ophelia in between. The latest large-scale
model runs forecast this combination to keep Ophelia nearly
stationary for the next 2-3 days...followed by a slow generally
northward motion as the U. S. Ridge shifts eastward into the
altantic. The guidance is still well spread...with the left
outliers of the GFDN and the Canadian calling for landfall in South
Carolina and the right outliers of the GFS and GFDL calling for the
storm to pass east of Cape Hatteras. The new forecast track is
shifted a little to the right and a little slower than the previous
package...and is on the left side of the main envelope of guidance.
The new track has a small loop in the first 24-36 hr...as much of
the guidance suggests that Ophelia will drift southward during part
of that time.
Ophelia continues to experience light to moderate westerly shear...
and water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air west of the cyclone.
These have probably eroded the convective structure to some degree.
However...the largest factor controlling the intensity is likely to
be sea surface temperatures and upwelling of cold water underneath
the slow-moving storm. NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the
center is reporting an SST of 27.2c...and a drifting buoy south of
the center is reporting 24.4c...down almost 3c from before Ophelia
passed over it. Elsewhere in the area...SSTs are between 27-28c
except in the relatively narrow Gulf Stream. Should Ophelia move
as slowly as forecast...it may upwell enough cold water to suppress
development. The GFDL...SHIPS...and superensemble all show a
little strengthening through 30 hr...and the intensity forecast
follows suit. However...those models all forecast weakening after
36-48 hr. The intensity forecast will not yet follow that
scenario...but it is a distinct possibility.
The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of the southeast
U. S. Coast with no changes at this time. If Ophelia is to begin a
track like that of the GFDN or Canadian toward South Carolina...it
should happen within the next 24-36 hr. Therefore...it is too
early to sound an all clear for any part of the area currently
under the Hurricane Watch.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/0300z 31.8n 75.8w 70 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 31.7n 75.8w 70 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 31.7n 76.1w 75 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 32.0n 76.4w 75 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 32.4n 76.7w 75 kt
72hr VT 14/0000z 33.5n 77.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 15/0000z 35.5n 76.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 16/0000z 38.0n 73.0w 35 kt...over water