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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
They haven't even called any kind of evacuation as yet!
thanks
WFTL radio (850 kHz AM) is announcing the sites.
Looks like the UKMET takes Katrina over the Causeway!
Presser coming up any minute now
Orlando is HOT, sunny, with a mild breeze. Great beach weather.
"Looks like God will be punishing Sodom and Gomorrah"
Maybe if the hurricane doesn't get em we should shoot the rest?
Bin Laden says similar things.
Nothing like giving a bad name to conservatives......
Meteorologist on easternuswx.com:
"The visible imagery and recon data show a classic thermodynamic replacement cycle. The inner-eye was becoming too unstable as noted in recon and sat data. Expect a period of marked strengthening to begin in the next 12 hours as the outer convective ring begins to contract. Some of the experimental mesoscale models that I am working on are showing explosive deepening later this evening...in fact...some them are deepening the vortex to the higher end of theoretical limits based on SST and upper-tropospheric temps. This is likely a result of model oversensitivity to physics paramertizations. Regardless...this is a beautiful thing to watch."
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=47354&view=findpost&p=557005
"Looks like the UKMET takes Katrina over the Causeway!"
If that is the case, then Metairie & Mandeville should start to look like ghost towns. According to TWC, St. Tammany and Jefferson Parishes aren't even under mandatory evacuations yet? It's beginning to look like Blanco's blowing this one big time.
There is a trough coming into the west coast, which will build the ridge over the rockies/western plains. Just downstream from that (N GOM) the weakness between the rockies ridge and Atlantic ridge will allow the storm to slip north. It's not theoretically impossible for it to go more west, but it's highly unlikely.
Fools. If this storm hits New Orleans as predicted, the death toll will be more than hundreds.
Just said that some Northshore gas stations sold out.
Tolls are lifted on the Causeway and Crescent City Connection.
The models are very good at predicting the path - they are pathetic for predicting the strength. They were way off for: Charlie, Francis, Ivan, and Dennis. It could be cat I or cat IV - nobody knows. The only thing to do is get the hell out of the way if you are anywhere near the predicted strike zone.
Wonder if we'd ever really know the numbers...as in Andrew?
Well..that's a start...
TWC is saying three parishes and Grand Isle are under evacuation orders...is that right? The city must be dragging its heels again.
I'm going to be traveling Monday so I'll have to search for news radio. Doesn't look good when a CNN graphic (saw 3 hours ago) has an expected cat-4 hurricane headed directly for the city of New Orleans.
FoxNews is standing bye for the Governors News Conference which is many minutes past the scheduled time.
It's a BIG MONEY decision....
You would think, wounldn't you, that the very real possibility of Katrina hitting NO that the people there would be getting OUT now.
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