The models are very good at predicting the path - they are pathetic for predicting the strength. They were way off for: Charlie, Francis, Ivan, and Dennis. It could be cat I or cat IV - nobody knows. The only thing to do is get the hell out of the way if you are anywhere near the predicted strike zone.
the models this year have been almost dead on within 3 days....and an NOAA aircraft has been flying around the gulf providing the models with extra data