Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Mandatory evacuations trigger a host of events to include shelter openings, funding commitments, etc.; whereas voluntary evacuations are frequently announced when a whole lot of people are contacting EOC asking for info--but the county isn't going to pay because the threat is not imminent.

[Aggie Mama]

Interesting that Houston/Galveston seems to be in the yellow zone now. Yesterday there wasn't even a chance at that. Sometimes I really wonder if anyone can predict ANYTHING when it comes to a hurricane.

[Willie Green]

Will New Orleans even exist a week from now?

Yeah, I believe so.
You might have to wear scuba gear to go to the Mardi Gras,
but it'll still be there.

[backhoe]

TPC now saying it could hit CAT 5 status at some point.

[LibSnubber]

"FNN just reported your Gov. is going speak at the top of the hour.."

Thanks for the heads-up, sw. I just got home from gassing up and probably would've missed it.

[NautiNurse]

Very good info re: MSY airport update. We had a lot of requests for that info during Dennis. Thank you!

[chemicalman]

I might have ocean front property in LaPlace...lol. Belive it or not, I'm not listed in a flood zone...but I have the insurance just in case.

[LA Woman3]

They are covering all the evacuation news....
Not sure if they are streaming on line. The website is www.wwl.com

[chemicalman]

Looks like the models are moving east just a little.

[FlJoePa]

Need a little help for a friend in Fort Lauderdale. I've been through it, now she's going through it.

Does anyone have any idea where ice may be being distributed in the Fort Lauderdale area? An exhaustive google search turned up pretty much nothing.

Thanks in advance, and my thoughts are with those in the Gulf States.

[simon says what]

The eyewall replacement cycle looks complete...the eye is now closed and well-defined.

The eyewall replacement cycle has just started. When it is complete you will see a much larger and well defined eye in the middle of the storm.

[rwfromkansas]

I would actually place my bet on the NHC track being closest at this point, but we have to see where the storm crosses 25N before I think there can begin to be a better handle on where this will hit.

[NautiNurse]

Try this link: Broward Co. to give and receive help

[NautiNurse]

Get lost

[Dog Gone]

The A98E is worthless. At this point, people should quit taking comfort from some model that looks like it leaves them in safety and look at the NHC projection.

I guarantee you that they are on high alert with their best minds analyzing the data.

As of this moment, they are predicting what would be the worst natural disaster in American history.

Yes, things could change and likely will. But it's been my experience that when all the computer models (except the worthless A98E) reach the same solution, it's a done deal.

It realistically would take months to pump out all the water in New Orleans. That's what we're potentially facing.

[Spiff]

Forecasted tracks image overlayed on IR Sat image overlayed on hi-res reflectivity radar overlayed on Google Earth. It's kind of ugly but it is the only source I could find for all of the projected tracks.

Light Blue=NHC
Dark Blue=GFDL
Orange=UKMET
Yellow=A98E
Light Green=BAMD
Green=BAMM
Gray=LBAR

[Carolinamom]

NO press conference coming up at 1pm on Fox...a few minutes from now.

[RBurke]

Tell her to listen to the radio to find out where--call the station and ask.

The national guard gave it out at a community center in our town, then distributed it at a walmart parking lot in a town near us. The radio always had the info first.

[tiredoflaundry]

GO AWAY!