Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[janetjanet998]

still moving almost due west..maybe a tad north at 275-280 degrees..take a look at the vis loop....you can see the "hurricane" within the hurricane..aka the inner core

[LibSnubber]

"why are some voluntary???"

I think it's because our incompetent Gov. Blanco can't make a decision...

[NautiNurse]

Good to see you today. I know the stress of watching and wondering again is awful.

[shield]

Thank you for THAT clarification. I've been reading his forecast since last yr probably 'cause you posted the link to that board. I have found his hurricane forecast better than most.

[silentknight]

You can really see the eye on the latest satellite images.

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48399&perpage=25&pagenumber=4

Impressive hurricane.

[janetjanet998]

WTF is a voluntary evac. anyway? people can leave whenever they want too..why does government have to remind people of that....
they waited too long..if this comes where it is suppose to hit many people wont get out on time or will be stuck on the highway....
again the wind field is expanding and NO will feel its effect much sooner then landfll slowing the evacuation process down

[gov_bean_ counter]

"why are some voluntary???"

'cause nobody has the guts to tell Boudreu he has to leave his fishing camp.

[silentknight]

You can subscribe to a daily email forecast from Larry Cosgrove at this site

http://members.aol.com/_ht_a/wxamerica/prof.index.html

The WEATHERAmerica Newsletter (c)
A Guide To Weather Happenings Over North America
Get a free subscription to the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, published daily and dealing with severe/unusual weather around the U.S. and Canada. Send a post marked 'SUBSCRIBE' to:

WXAMERICA@aol.com

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Are there any steering currents out there at all, if not won't it just continue it's westerly direction?

Hoping for that for Blam's well being and NO's also!

[Willie Green]

If I lived in New Orleans, I'd be gathering the important papers and heading west.

I don't know....
It looks like they keep predicting that thing to turn north,
but it keeps going to the west.
I'm beginning to wonder if it's gonna fool everybody and hit US instead...
If I were in NO, I'd evacuate NORTH, and stay away from the coast altogether.

[rwfromkansas]

Probably many will stay even in a forced evac because they have grown used to evacuating and nothing happening.

I sure hope I am wrong.

[cmsgop]

Will New Orleans even exist a week from now?

[CWW]

TPC now saying it could hit CAT 5 status at some point.

[LA Woman3]

Airport in New Orleans still running as normal today, tomorrow call the airline for status of flights.

[RBurke]

I grew up and still live in Florida. I've watched the storms my whole life and thought I had a "handle" on how they behaved. Last year's storms and this years totally floored me. The usual behavior isnt holding true. I never saw a hurricane go south, go into a loop and hit the same state again, go up the middle of state and maintain hurricane winds once it hit land--but that all happened last year. Made a believer out of me!

I was never afraid of a category 2 or less storm but these recent ones have an unexpected punch when they hit. My daughter lives in the Cutler Ridge/Florida on the Lakes area of Miami and yesterday they sustained ALOT more damage than they should have from a minimal category one.

Wherever it hits--be it NO or Panama City, I would get out NOW. People do weird things when the deadline gets closer. Last year, we had county govts NOT opening shelters here until the last moment--and NOT advertising them as open either--to prevent out-of-town evacuees from filling them (ticked me off, they pay taxes too!). People rode it out in trailers and in parked cars off the interstate exits. Not good. Last year during one storm, part of I-10 west of Panama city just collapsed and it took weeks to repair. If you need to evacuate dont count on optimum conditions to get out.

If you do ride it out, --first put a toe tag on--then get WATER more than anything and batteries for a radio. I didnt want to eat but hearing people on the radio made us feel normal for the weeks we were cut off with no water, no electric, no phone, no ice (and hotter than hell here). I also learned to clean house and do laundry before the storm hits--living in dirt is the pits when you cant run a vacuum, etc. Get an old fashioned can opener, clothes line/pins, and a gallon of bleach. Remember that during the storm, tornadoes are a huge hazard--turn your AM radio to 54. It will squeal loudly if a tornado is in the area. (dont know why, but it did do it last year when one came within a half a mile of us).

Im praying for anyone in the path of the storm. Dont take anything for granted, get out now.

[janetjanet998]

what the hell is wrong with this mayor....this is form an AP article just issued..what is he waiting for?
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said he probably would call an evacuation Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning. He said he was telling residents to "get their supplies, get their medications in order, clean up storm drains and get ready. Because it looks as if we're going to get hit."

[spectre]

FNN just reported your Gov. is going speak at the top of the hour..

sw

[blam]

"Thanks! Are you listening to 870 AM?"

I sometimes listen to Rush on 870 AM over here in Mobile.

[STARWISE]

I finally heard from my friend in the country west of Homestead. She got cell phone service today, no landline. No electricity until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

I told her when I spoke to her on Wednesday to be aware that they could be on the dirty side ... but they were confident there wouldn't be any problems "'cause most of the storm would be up north."

BIG mistake

As a result of that nonchalance (as she said: "THEY TOLD us there wouldn't be any severe problems down here") they did nothing.

They lost power at 8pm on Thursday, and she didn't even have a few buckets of water for toilet flushing .. so mid-way during it all, she put some buckets outside, and said they filled to the brim in no time.... there was actually a wall of water .. it was such an extreme deluge. Luckily, the next door neighbor has a hand cranked water pump, so they're fine with water.

They have the generator running, so the refrigerator is on, but there's been no service agencies out there yet (as I knew there wouldn't be), they didn't board up, and she said the wind was horrible .... 80-90 mph. They have trees down everywhere in their avocado grove, but they're lucky that the roof survived fine and no fruit was hurled through the windows... they're picking it up off the ground now to take to the packing house.

As I told her and I got a "OH YES!!" -- they had a cheap lesson. She said she'll NEVER be so lax in a hurricane again. They're very very grateful that they got off so light.

[Dog Gone]

I'm thinking that the only scenario that isn't an utter disaster is for Katrina to hit Louisiana and slide up between New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

Anywhere else is going to be far, far worse. Given the SSTs and lack of shear, Katrina will either be a Cat 4, or depending on ERC timing, a Cat 5 hurricane at landfall.

She certainly has the potential to be the Camille of this generation.