Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[janetjanet998]

12z new GFS run just in has it hitting west of NO

[beyond the sea]

really?

[NautiNurse]

thanks for the update!

[nwctwx]

Yup, IR shows deep convection firing on the eastern side.

It looks like it will be a case of the storm waiting to strengthen till it's on it's way in. I'd usually like to see it bottoming out about 48-72 hours prior to landfall, they never seem to hold that strength for so long..

[rwfromkansas]

According to their track, it should cross 25N around 87W.

We will see if that comes to pass of it tracks a bit to the east.

[Diddle E. Squat]

the doomsday scenarios are all based on a storm coming from the ese. this one will be coming from the south...there is quite a bit of distance from the marshy southern coast of la and new orleans....will it be bad...obviously....but book your mardi gras plans.

No, the doomsday scenario for NO also could happen with a hurricane coming in from the SW. The winds from such would initially push Gulf water north then west into Lake P, then as the center passed start pushing all that trapped water south and over the levees. Also could take place with an approach from the south or SE if the center was close to or just east of NO, for the same reasons.

Luckily the window of area the center has to pass through for this to take place is rather narrow(but obviously grows larger with intensity), but that should not be read as a reason not to evacuate. It is still Russian roulette at this point.

[rwfromkansas]

oh man.

[nwctwx]

Storms have been coming in a bit east of projection this year in the upper GOM.

[janetjanet998]

looks like another rapid intensity may be starting at 949 MB this time versus the 980 last time....

[Spiff]

Forecasted storm tracks overlayed upon Satellite IR imagery overlayed on Hi-res reflectivity radar overlayed on Google Earth. (1208 EDT)

BAMD=Green
BAMM=Red
LBAR=Yellow
A98E=Blue

[rwfromkansas]

no GFDL?

[shield]

Larry over at the eastern weather forum doubts a NO landfall...he's saying more like Miss., Ala. what say you?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Strike Probabilities

This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.Click image to zoom in

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[SE Mom]

FEMA director on FOX NEWS now telling us NO folks need to take this extremely seriously...he looks kinda shook.

[lifacs]

Thanks for the graphics. I also think, like howlin, you need to make a tutorial thread on how in the heck you get google earth to do that.

[nwctwx]

Larry is a very good meteorologist... I am just an amateur. :) Overall, I think he is one of the best on there.. I met him a month ago, and he is extremely good at what he does.

That said, I think his idea is slowly going out the window. I do not believe there will be a sharp hook to the NE or NNE anytime soon. The storm is almost too far west at this point for his idea to work out.

[Tuxedo]

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to figure out the extent of devastation to NO on a direct hit by a Cat 4 or Cat 5. All those above ground tombs.... plus the critters from the neighboring swamps. Even Steven King would have some trouble describing it all.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Just pulled this from Fox 8 in NO I believe......

Katrina Threatens Louisiana
8/27/2005

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Several low-lying parishes have called evacuations - some mandatory, some voluntary - because forecasters say Hurricane Katrina is likely to slam into the Louisiana coast on Monday. There's a voluntary evacuation on Grand Isle. Plaquemines Parish has called a mandatory evacuation. Parish President Benny Roussel says people have the chance to leave before other parishes call evacuations, and should do so. St. Bernard Parish has called a precautionary evacuation for low-lying areas on the east end of the parish -- and at 10 a-m will recommend evacuation for the rest of the parish. Terrebonne Parish has recommended evacuation for all areas south of the Intercoastal Waterway. Lafourche Parish has called a voluntary evacuation south of highway 90.

******************************************************

why are some voluntary???

[CTGOPPER]

I'm usually just a lurker on these weather threads but boast about your brain power here to anyone that will listen. And yes, I would love a tutorial on how those google earth graphics are created. Google Earth is one cool program!

[blam]

"The cone of uncertainty spans from the western tip of Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. All eyes in the Northern Gulf of Mexico should be watching the path of this storm very closely."

Got both my eyes on it.