Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies.
Locked on 08/27/2005 8:52:34 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:

Locked - New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472123/posts



Skip to comments.

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:


New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:


Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:


WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: byebyebigeasy; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; miami; tropical; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 381-400401-420421-440 ... 1,501-1,509 next last
To: rwfromkansas

12z new GFS run just in has it hitting west of NO


401 posted on 08/27/2005 9:15:12 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 398 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

really?


402 posted on 08/27/2005 9:15:49 AM PDT by beyond the sea ("I was just the spark the universe chose ....." --- Cindy Sheehan (barf alert))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 401 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

thanks for the update!


403 posted on 08/27/2005 9:15:54 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 384 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Yup, IR shows deep convection firing on the eastern side.

It looks like it will be a case of the storm waiting to strengthen till it's on it's way in. I'd usually like to see it bottoming out about 48-72 hours prior to landfall, they never seem to hold that strength for so long..


404 posted on 08/27/2005 9:16:18 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 399 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

According to their track, it should cross 25N around 87W.

We will see if that comes to pass of it tracks a bit to the east.


405 posted on 08/27/2005 9:16:26 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 329 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
the doomsday scenarios are all based on a storm coming from the ese. this one will be coming from the south...there is quite a bit of distance from the marshy southern coast of la and new orleans....will it be bad...obviously....but book your mardi gras plans.

No, the doomsday scenario for NO also could happen with a hurricane coming in from the SW. The winds from such would initially push Gulf water north then west into Lake P, then as the center passed start pushing all that trapped water south and over the levees. Also could take place with an approach from the south or SE if the center was close to or just east of NO, for the same reasons.

Luckily the window of area the center has to pass through for this to take place is rather narrow(but obviously grows larger with intensity), but that should not be read as a reason not to evacuate. It is still Russian roulette at this point.

406 posted on 08/27/2005 9:16:30 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 364 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

oh man.


407 posted on 08/27/2005 9:17:03 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 401 | View Replies]

To: rwfromkansas

Storms have been coming in a bit east of projection this year in the upper GOM.


408 posted on 08/27/2005 9:17:08 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 405 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx
looks like another rapid intensity may be starting at 949 MB this time versus the 980 last time....
409 posted on 08/27/2005 9:19:04 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 404 | View Replies]

To: MikeinIraq
Forecasted storm tracks overlayed upon Satellite IR imagery overlayed on Hi-res reflectivity radar overlayed on Google Earth. (1208 EDT)

BAMD=Green
BAMM=Red
LBAR=Yellow
A98E=Blue

410 posted on 08/27/2005 9:20:11 AM PDT by Spiff (Don't believe everything you think.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 391 | View Replies]

To: Spiff

no GFDL?


411 posted on 08/27/2005 9:22:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 363 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

Larry over at the eastern weather forum doubts a NO landfall...he's saying more like Miss., Ala. what say you?


412 posted on 08/27/2005 9:22:49 AM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 404 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Strike Probabilities

This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.Click image to zoom in [Image of probability of storm center approaching within 75 statute miles]


Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Weather, & TPC Information Topics:
Storm Information, Hurricane Awareness, Historical Information,
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Disclaimer Privacy Policy
Comments/Feedback

413 posted on 08/27/2005 9:23:11 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 401 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

FEMA director on FOX NEWS now telling us NO folks need to take this extremely seriously...he looks kinda shook.


414 posted on 08/27/2005 9:25:55 AM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 413 | View Replies]

To: Spiff

Thanks for the graphics. I also think, like howlin, you need to make a tutorial thread on how in the heck you get google earth to do that.


415 posted on 08/27/2005 9:28:03 AM PDT by lifacs
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 410 | View Replies]

To: shield

Larry is a very good meteorologist... I am just an amateur. :) Overall, I think he is one of the best on there.. I met him a month ago, and he is extremely good at what he does.

That said, I think his idea is slowly going out the window. I do not believe there will be a sharp hook to the NE or NNE anytime soon. The storm is almost too far west at this point for his idea to work out.


416 posted on 08/27/2005 9:28:15 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 412 | View Replies]

To: SE Mom

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to figure out the extent of devastation to NO on a direct hit by a Cat 4 or Cat 5. All those above ground tombs.... plus the critters from the neighboring swamps. Even Steven King would have some trouble describing it all.


417 posted on 08/27/2005 9:29:31 AM PDT by Tuxedo (This space for rent.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 414 | View Replies]

To: SE Mom
Just pulled this from Fox 8 in NO I believe......

Katrina Threatens Louisiana
8/27/2005

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Several low-lying parishes have called evacuations - some mandatory, some voluntary - because forecasters say Hurricane Katrina is likely to slam into the Louisiana coast on Monday. There's a voluntary evacuation on Grand Isle. Plaquemines Parish has called a mandatory evacuation. Parish President Benny Roussel says people have the chance to leave before other parishes call evacuations, and should do so. St. Bernard Parish has called a precautionary evacuation for low-lying areas on the east end of the parish -- and at 10 a-m will recommend evacuation for the rest of the parish. Terrebonne Parish has recommended evacuation for all areas south of the Intercoastal Waterway. Lafourche Parish has called a voluntary evacuation south of highway 90.

******************************************************

why are some voluntary???


418 posted on 08/27/2005 9:30:53 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 414 | View Replies]

To: lifacs

I'm usually just a lurker on these weather threads but boast about your brain power here to anyone that will listen. And yes, I would love a tutorial on how those google earth graphics are created. Google Earth is one cool program!


419 posted on 08/27/2005 9:31:28 AM PDT by CTGOPPER (In a red town, in a blue county, in blue state of CT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 415 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
"The cone of uncertainty spans from the western tip of Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. All eyes in the Northern Gulf of Mexico should be watching the path of this storm very closely."

Got both my eyes on it.

420 posted on 08/27/2005 9:32:26 AM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 238 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 381-400401-420421-440 ... 1,501-1,509 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson