Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Diddle E. Squat]

While Tallahassee, being 20 miles inland, wouldn't see the storm surge from a hurricane, it could still get severe destruction from a direct hit of a major hurricane. That's just not far enough inland. Luckily for them, the shape of the coastline reduces the odds of such as compared to many coastal towns, but doesn't eliminate it.

[silentknight]

What is a ping list? I never have figured that out?

Thanks

[TheLion]

[oceanview]

weather channel now focusing on new orleans - TWC picking up on the westward movement of the track.

[Ellesu]

We are in BR, will decide in am if going to Texas to stay with family. We may not get any major damage, but I can't stand a week with no AC. Hopefully she will make that northern turn by morning and we will know more, but right now it's too close to stay if it stays on this track. The traffic will be a mess going and coming back, but maybe it won't be so bad Saturday. Sunday it will be crazy. La Woman 3, I will let you know what we decide.

[NautiNurse]

TWC graphic showing oil rigs. They mentioned one company? was cutting back oil and gas production already. Said about 1/3 of the rigs off LA are going to be affected.

[Ellesu]

That could probably be worse as big and strong as she is.

[oceanview]

any NO freepers - tomorrow morning, if the tracks hold in the upcoming weather service reports - get out.

[Ellesu]

Louisiana disaster evacuation guide/routes, etc.

http://www.lsp.org/lcadeg.html

[NautiNurse]

Excellent info--thanks for posting the evac guide.

[Rebelbase]

"Joe Bastardi on FoxNews said this storm could rival Camille and Betsy."

Joe gets aroused at such thoughts.

[Flux Capacitor]

What a Bastardi.

-Dan

[nwctwx]

0z RGEM has eyes on SE LA as well.. They are all converging.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=47268

[Dog Gone]

That's a depiction of the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

The best thing going for it is that Katrina is more than 24 hours out, and longer range forecasts than that are generally unreliable.

[LA Woman3]

Thank you!

[ZOTnot]

I have always worried about N.O., its people, and its historical significance. I saw a model earlier tonight which shows the hurricane making landfall near Biloxi which has had many hits in the past. Not to minimize the misery they may experience there, but they are better equipped, geograhically, to take the hit than N.O. (Evacuation capabilities, relative elevation, etc, Hopefully, people from both areas however will pay attention to this one, and just clear out of town ASAP. I was in a CAT 1 at one time; this is a CAT 3 or 4. No one wants to be there when it hits, believe me.

Even if you believe you are safe, it is not fun to be without electric for days, or to endure the flooding...

[NautiNurse]

Not familiar with the RGEM. What are its strengths and weaknesses?

[dawn53]

I just checked at some of the radar loops.

When is this thing supposed to start turning northward.

Looks to me that it's still heading wsw.

[Ellesu]

Latest track has New Orleans in Katrina's cross-hairs

Blanco declares state of emergency as Katrina shifts west

The latest forecast track for Hurricane Katrina - issued at 10 p.m. CDT - has the strengthening storm crossing lower Plaquemines on a beeline across the New Orleans metro area.

Earlier Friday, Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency as a major shift west in the projected track of Hurricane Katrina threatens Southeastern Louisiana.

Katrina, the 11th named storm of a busy season, was upgraded to Category 2 as it moved deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon, after crossing Florida yesterday. Forecasters say the storm should strengthen to Category 3 by Saturday, and could strengthen into a Category 4, or even Category 5 according to some models, by landfall Monday.

Blanco declared a state of emergency earlier Friday after the 5 p.m. forecast called for landfall in the Biloxi area, ordering the state's disaster preparedness offices to start taking precautions, saying Katrina posed an "imminent threat." Meanwhile, emergency preparedness officers in southern Louisiana were mobilizing on their own.

"We were looking at it going up the East Coast two days ago and now it's looking like it will hit the central Gulf Coast," said Larry Ingargiola, director of the St. Bernard Parish Emergency Preparedness. "Like we always say, the only one who knows where a storm will go is the man upstairs."

More worrisome was that experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that the hurricane's track could move even further west, Ingargiola said.

"We just hope our people are prepared," he said. "It's kind of late in the year to be making disaster plans."

William Maestri, the emergency director for Jefferson Parish, said he was concerned about the movement west and how it was intensifying.

New Orleans City Hall spokeswoman Tami Frazier said officials were watching the storm, and had activated what she called the lowest alert level — monitoring storm movements

Much of the seven hours Katrina spent over land Thursday was over the moist Florida Everglades, allowing for only slight weakening.

Katrina toppled trees, whipped up the surf and left more than a million customers without power as it slammed into Florida's densely populated southeastern coast Thursday with driving rains and sustained winds of 80 mph, with gusts over 90. Two people were killed by falling trees.

http://www.nola.com

[nwctwx]

The RGEM is a Canadian global model. It's better with cold core systems than tropical systems. The main idea here is more convergance. The new MM5 also is showing a NO area hit.