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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: Diddle E. Squat
If this is still the case tomorrow morning, all bets are off - the traffic out of New Orleans will be sheer hell.

If that's the case, I'll have a feed for WWL-TV tomorrow.

681 posted on 08/26/2005 7:58:48 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: Dog Gone

Yikes. I guess I should stop making "Katrina and the Waves" jokes.

-Dan

682 posted on 08/26/2005 7:58:50 PM PDT by Flux Capacitor (Trust me. I know what I'm doing.)
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To: Dog Gone
You're right - unusually candid and blunt remarks:

"The hurricane is expected to be under a typical 200 mb anticylone...with a cyclonic circulation extending upward to that level. This is the typical pattern observed in intense hurricanes. In addition...Katrina is forecast to move directly over the warm loop current of the Gulf of Mexico...which is like adding high octane fuel to the fire."

683 posted on 08/26/2005 7:59:01 PM PDT by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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To: dogbyte12

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.


684 posted on 08/26/2005 7:59:08 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: nwctwx
That's what I wanted to post. THANK YOU.

I'm willing to goof around with these models when they're all over the place, but when they converge, the time for speculation is over.

You folks know where you live. I think Katrina will be Cat 4 at landfall. If we're lucky, not Cat 5.

Just think about it, and do something tomorrow morning the latest.

685 posted on 08/26/2005 7:59:53 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: LA Woman3

New Orleans City Hall spokeswoman Tami Frazier said officials were watching the storm, and had activated what she called the lowest alert level — monitoring storm movements.


New Orleans residents, Get out, get out, get out!

Do you think their is a chance the models will shift more left to Lafayette area?


686 posted on 08/26/2005 8:00:47 PM PDT by Ellesu (www.thedeadpelican.com)
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To: mhking

I'll be posting a new thread in the wee hours. Can you FReepmail me the links for the streaming again---pretty please? Or just point me to the post that has them.


687 posted on 08/26/2005 8:00:50 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Diddle E. Squat

Not to minimize the potential for loss of life -- not at all, in fact -- but where are the oil/gas refineries in that area? This thing could end up impacting the entire country with, oh, maybe $3.50 gas prices or something (and don't think the speculators won't do that, given any excuse).


688 posted on 08/26/2005 8:01:43 PM PDT by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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To: alancarp

Heard earlier that 21 rigs are already being evacuated.


689 posted on 08/26/2005 8:02:56 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone

If it still looks the same in 6-10 hours track wise, I hope they start evacuating the city. They need at least 3 days to do it properly, so we are going to run out of time soon.


690 posted on 08/26/2005 8:02:59 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

I'll take a look - everyone's stopped the wall-to-wall stuff (outside of Hurricane City), but let me see what I can find.


691 posted on 08/26/2005 8:03:43 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: Diddle E. Squat


Whoa.


692 posted on 08/26/2005 8:03:59 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: alancarp
I'll answer my own question: there's a major facility at Pascagoula, Mississippi.


693 posted on 08/26/2005 8:04:08 PM PDT by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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To: mhking

thanks again for your help--I hear lots of good feedback for the streaming sites.


694 posted on 08/26/2005 8:04:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Ellesu

----Do you think their is a chance the models will shift more left to Lafayette area?----

SHHHHHHH! Don't give it any ideas....

-Dan

695 posted on 08/26/2005 8:04:52 PM PDT by Flux Capacitor (Trust me. I know what I'm doing.)
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To: mhking

If it were me in New Orleans, I'd stay up packing and hit the road in a few hours, to beat the rush. Would also have someone else calling some of the motel chains right now to get reservations in western LA or eastern TX.


696 posted on 08/26/2005 8:06:52 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: NautiNurse

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320


697 posted on 08/26/2005 8:06:52 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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Joe Bastardi on FoxNews said this storm could rival Camille and Betsy.


698 posted on 08/26/2005 8:08:34 PM PDT by tapatio (The cowards think of what they can lose, the heroes of what they can win)
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To: NautiNurse

Most of those links are not live presently. The Mobile and New Orleans links are only likely URLs, based on past performance - I won't have solid info until late tomorrow for them.

Hurricane City is streaming WFOR right now; they're probably going to stream The Weather Channel after midnight. Jim says that he'll be live tomorrow at 8P ET with his usual round of live information and analysis.


699 posted on 08/26/2005 8:08:45 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: Dog Gone
Folks should read that discussion slowly and absorb what it's saying. This is an extremely dangerous storm.

Worth repeating again.

700 posted on 08/26/2005 8:09:02 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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