84hrs
Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Great info--thanks.
It'll never happen. Just look at the comments on this thread.
If Katrina hits NO as a Cat 3 or bigger, it will do so with all evacuation routes completely gridlocked.
The only thing New Orleans has going for it is the fact that long range forecasts are awful.
Sometimes.
Good to see you...the last canes you were no where to be found...I looked for you... ;o)
Wondering when NO will start the contraflow.....
Tallahassee is probably not in any danger this time. As a matter off fact, it's location is well insulated from a severe direct hurricane hit. It doesn't mean it might not someday encounter squalls, a tornado, etc. but they are too far from the coast and too protected by its surroundings to take the sort of brunt that the Florida or Gulf coasts sometimes face.
If anybody fron New Orleans is evacuating, please try LA 30 when you hit Gonzales. It will save you a good 6 hours if Ivan last year was any indication. I commute to BR for work from there. I gave 30 a shot and nobody was using it. It took me 40 minutes to do what it was taking people on I-10 or airline highway 6 hours.
This could not be any worse for oil prices.
Nauti, do you know who has the Louisiana ping list? This might not be a bad time to send an APB. Katrina could change, of course, but since the delta area needs more evac time, this could be the right time to alert them.
84hrs
Who knows? There are a LOT of variables still left to play out. What's to say that the westward model shift doesn't continue, that certainly has happened previously with other storms. Could go in around east of Lake Charles, missing most of the population. Could take a sharper turn and come in east of Pensacola.
Heck, any more of a westward model shift and SE Texas enters the cone of possibility. Check out this wording from the advisory:
"Katrina continues to move stubbornly toward the west-southwest or 250 degrees at 7 knots along the eastern side of a very strong deep-layer mean high centered over Texas. In fact...data from the NOAA jet just relayed by the meteorologist onboard indicate that the high continues to be very strong. However...this feature is expected to move westward and leave a weakness over the central Gulf of Mexico. Katrina will likely take that opportunity and begin to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and then northward."
So if that high is delayed in moving west and the storm keeps travelling WSW for awhile, could it end up far enough west that when it does turn it heads into Beaumont, or even Houston? Not likely, but who knows at this point?
I'm going to Wal-Mart in a few minutes. It's 6 miles a way on a major N.O. Baton Rouge thoroughfare. It will be messy tomorrow.
Forgot to answer your actual question. Don't know about offshore, but there are petrochem complexes all up and down the Mississippi River in LA between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. More in Lake Charles and Beaumont.
Honestly--I don't. The next thread will be in breaking news, LA will be in the topics too. You know, I haven't seen cajungirl around here the past couple of days. She may have the list.
Great idea--see you in a while.
They said that last night at this time.
Please add me to your hurricane ping list!
Here's what Bob Breck, the New Orleans Fox Affiliate's weatherman, has to say as of 10:15 CST:
As Hurricane Katrina continues to grow stronger, I am becoming more concerned with landfall occurring much farther to the west of the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. That would place all of Southeast Louisiana under a threat for a major hurricane hit for early on Monday.
The key will be…" how soon will Katrina make the turn back to the north?" If the turn happens by midday on Saturday, then the NHC track looks good and we would see very little impact as the storm hits east of Biloxi. However, if the turn doesn't happen until Sunday, then landfall will be across Southeast Louisiana. Since this could be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, damage would be catastrophic and much worst than the damage from Hurricane Betsy in 1965. FOX 8 will begin live hourly cut-ins on Saturday at 6 AM.
Bob Breck, Chief MeteorologistHurricane Supply List
B.S. Meteorology & Oceanography
University of Michigan
ominous
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.