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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: Dog Gone

...keeps sliding closer and closer to Texas....YUCK


561 posted on 08/26/2005 6:10:59 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Dog Gone

It's supposed to make landfall around 2PM Monday at the latest now.

We are already under 72 hours. If it does track into New Orleans over night, and they decide sometime tomorrow to finally call for evacs, it's going to be FUBAR. Totally FUBAR.

They should have said nobody knows. Get your house prepared and get packed to go just in case.


562 posted on 08/26/2005 6:11:14 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: Prolifeconservative

why wouldn't they leave?

however, if the eye comes in east of New Orleans, it will not get the worst of it. So far I think, most of the projections keep the eye just to the east of NO.


563 posted on 08/26/2005 6:11:56 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Prolifeconservative
Doesn't look like they have much time to prepare either...God, I hope you're wrong.

sw

564 posted on 08/26/2005 6:12:11 PM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: Prolifeconservative

565 posted on 08/26/2005 6:12:27 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: lauriehelds

Ahhh, CRAP. This thing is getting way too close to me for comfort.

I've never evacuated for a hurricane before -- not even Andrew -- but Lili in '02 changed my mind. Next one that lands here, I'm not sticking around for.

-Dan

566 posted on 08/26/2005 6:13:25 PM PDT by Flux Capacitor (Trust me. I know what I'm doing.)
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To: shield
It's not coming to Texas, I promise you that, shield. Not this one.

I can't make the same promise to New Orleans.

567 posted on 08/26/2005 6:13:49 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Someone needs to explain why the politicians in New Orleans issued statements about not worrying or leaving the city.

Working on the homeless problem?

568 posted on 08/26/2005 6:13:49 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Can we swap Cindy Sheehan in Crawford for Cindy Crawford anywhere?)
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To: Dog Gone

where exactly is new orleans on that map?


569 posted on 08/26/2005 6:13:59 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: NautiNurse

"NO needs 72 hours evac lead time."


A weekend arrving hurricane is somewhat advantageous in that most people won't be filing out of their workplace and hitting the roads in unison when local officials order evacuations.


570 posted on 08/26/2005 6:14:48 PM PDT by Prolifeconservative (If there is another terrorist attack, the womb is a very unsafe place to hide.)
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To: Flux Capacitor

Big worry is power. Southern crews are going to be way busy in lower Florida fixing their mess. Where in LA are ya? I am right outside Gonzales myself.


571 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:04 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: oceanview
where exactly is new orleans on that map?

Underneath the hand of God.


572 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:09 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: Termite_Commander
I'm also watching from central Maryland

Did you read Cosgrove's statement? He thinks that Katrina will NOT go west of the Appalachians. I'm watching for the turn to the north or east...

573 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:29 PM PDT by aBootes
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To: Dog Gone; dogbyte12
Someone needs to explain why the politicians in New Orleans issued statements about not worrying or leaving the city.

They did this today? Was it before this model came out early this afternoon?

574 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Hello,

My husband and I visit NO at least 2 times a year, we were there last Thursday (drove over from Gulfport). I can not imagine a Cat 3 - 4 hitting that city, the devastation would be unbelievable. I also think that many in NO and especially the Quarter would choose to "ride it out" or would have no way to get out. The number of deaths from such a disaster would be shocking. Our prayers are with everyone who is in the path of this horrible storm.

Glad to be here, MOgirl
575 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:40 PM PDT by MOgirl (In memory of Walton Wayne Callahan, I love you forever.)
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To: oceanview

Smack in the middle of that pink line.

-Dan

576 posted on 08/26/2005 6:15:54 PM PDT by Flux Capacitor (Trust me. I know what I'm doing.)
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To: oceanview
where exactly is new orleans on that map?

That dot on the pink track is just slightly NE of New Orleans.

577 posted on 08/26/2005 6:16:48 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: Flux Capacitor

thanks.

interesting that the weather channel does not seem to be in sync with these models right now. steve lyons still pointing to landfall east of new orleans - Mobile, Florida panhandle, etc.


578 posted on 08/26/2005 6:18:08 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: dogbyte12

Lafayette here. Lili was such a huge scare because it strengthened to a Cat 5 after it was far too late to evacuate the city. It was literally a miracle that it plunged to a Cat 2 before hitting us. I remember Mike Foster saying as much, and I remember that being about the only thing he ever said that made any sense.

-Dan

579 posted on 08/26/2005 6:19:24 PM PDT by Flux Capacitor (Trust me. I know what I'm doing.)
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To: dogbyte12
The models might change. I don't think they will much, because we're getting closer to landfall and the systems are largely in place.

Maybe it's just a lucky guess on my part, but I've always seen a more western second landfall for this storm than the NHC or earlier models did.

I can't see it going more west than the current model runs, i.e., central Louisiana at one extreme and Pensacola at the other.

580 posted on 08/26/2005 6:19:33 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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