Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[shield]

...keeps sliding closer and closer to Texas....YUCK

[dogbyte12]

It's supposed to make landfall around 2PM Monday at the latest now.

We are already under 72 hours. If it does track into New Orleans over night, and they decide sometime tomorrow to finally call for evacs, it's going to be FUBAR. Totally FUBAR.

They should have said nobody knows. Get your house prepared and get packed to go just in case.

[oceanview]

why wouldn't they leave?

however, if the eye comes in east of New Orleans, it will not get the worst of it. So far I think, most of the projections keep the eye just to the east of NO.

[spectre]

Doesn't look like they have much time to prepare either...God, I hope you're wrong.

sw

[Dog Gone]

[Flux Capacitor]

Ahhh, CRAP. This thing is getting way too close to me for comfort.

I've never evacuated for a hurricane before -- not even Andrew -- but Lili in '02 changed my mind. Next one that lands here, I'm not sticking around for.

-Dan

[Dog Gone]

It's not coming to Texas, I promise you that, shield. Not this one.

I can't make the same promise to New Orleans.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Someone needs to explain why the politicians in New Orleans issued statements about not worrying or leaving the city.

Working on the homeless problem?

[oceanview]

where exactly is new orleans on that map?

[Prolifeconservative]

"NO needs 72 hours evac lead time."


A weekend arrving hurricane is somewhat advantageous in that most people won't be filing out of their workplace and hitting the roads in unison when local officials order evacuations.

[dogbyte12]

Big worry is power. Southern crews are going to be way busy in lower Florida fixing their mess. Where in LA are ya? I am right outside Gonzales myself.

[mhking]

where exactly is new orleans on that map?

Underneath the hand of God.

[aBootes]

I'm also watching from central Maryland

Did you read Cosgrove's statement? He thinks that Katrina will NOT go west of the Appalachians. I'm watching for the turn to the north or east...

[NautiNurse]

Someone needs to explain why the politicians in New Orleans issued statements about not worrying or leaving the city.

They did this today? Was it before this model came out early this afternoon?

[MOgirl]

Hello,

My husband and I visit NO at least 2 times a year, we were there last Thursday (drove over from Gulfport). I can not imagine a Cat 3 - 4 hitting that city, the devastation would be unbelievable. I also think that many in NO and especially the Quarter would choose to "ride it out" or would have no way to get out. The number of deaths from such a disaster would be shocking. Our prayers are with everyone who is in the path of this horrible storm.

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[Flux Capacitor]

Smack in the middle of that pink line.

-Dan

[dogbyte12]

where exactly is new orleans on that map?

That dot on the pink track is just slightly NE of New Orleans.

[oceanview]

thanks.

interesting that the weather channel does not seem to be in sync with these models right now. steve lyons still pointing to landfall east of new orleans - Mobile, Florida panhandle, etc.

[Flux Capacitor]

Lafayette here. Lili was such a huge scare because it strengthened to a Cat 5 after it was far too late to evacuate the city. It was literally a miracle that it plunged to a Cat 2 before hitting us. I remember Mike Foster saying as much, and I remember that being about the only thing he ever said that made any sense.

-Dan

[Dog Gone]

The models might change. I don't think they will much, because we're getting closer to landfall and the systems are largely in place.

Maybe it's just a lucky guess on my part, but I've always seen a more western second landfall for this storm than the NHC or earlier models did.

I can't see it going more west than the current model runs, i.e., central Louisiana at one extreme and Pensacola at the other.