Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Check out the latest visible satellite photo at the bottom here
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48399&perpage=25&pagenumber=4
Impressive little storm. Still has a ways to go though before she becomes a cat 4 or 5.
that is the current thinking...
I hope its lower....
If not, I hope it doesn't get any stronger than that....
Very nice images.
You think? I'm 200 miles up from the gulfcoast on the MS river. We really NEED rain.
I think I'll ping Toby... see if he answers --- he's in Gulfport.
Personally, I'd rather be bone dry than hope that a cane hits Texas...now having said that...you were kidding weren't you? ;o) LOL
Looking forward to hearing from rodguy.
There prolly won't be any flyovers until the weather clears...
My guess (and it is just a guess) is that the NHC forecast track will shift some to the west before it all is done. If so, and the storm grows as expected, you'd probably get at least some outer squalls, especially if some of the curving is slower than expected.
rodguy911 has posted on other threads today(came back around 9am). He just hasn't popped in here yet today.
Yep, rooting for hot and clear in Houston, an easy tradeoff versus a cat 4 and weeks without A/C or a roof. Luckily there's a High that should keep it out of Texas (but wondering if that could move east and the storm slide southwestward and around it before curving back into TX? Probably not, but will be relieved when it finally curves.)
Just looked at that loop. The 553 photo seemed to show it heading back wsw again though. It might be wobbling a bit right now.
It has time. I don't think it can go much further west than New Orleans, which means that the New Orleans landfall is a slim possibility. But I'm hoping it hits the least populated shoreline possible, because I see it becoming a very powerful storm before landfall.
A New Orleans or Mobile landfall would be devastating in terms of lives and damage if the intensity is what I'm predicting.
I saw a survey done last month and I think 65-70% of people in that soup bowl (New Orleans) said they would not evacuate even if a Cat 3 or 4 were to hit.
There are your Democrat voters......
18z GFS hits NO
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_072m.gif
west of NO, to be exact.
I think she's done with the southerly component. There has been a hint of a north of west jog in the past while.
Nice image.
That puts NO on the dirty side.Not good.
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