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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: dawn53

Check out the latest visible satellite photo at the bottom here

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48399&perpage=25&pagenumber=4


Impressive little storm. Still has a ways to go though before she becomes a cat 4 or 5.


441 posted on 08/26/2005 2:50:07 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: sheikdetailfeather

that is the current thinking...

I hope its lower....

If not, I hope it doesn't get any stronger than that....


442 posted on 08/26/2005 2:51:23 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (It's called having class.....)
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To: silentknight

Very nice images.


443 posted on 08/26/2005 2:51:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Diddle E. Squat; gulfcoast6

You think? I'm 200 miles up from the gulfcoast on the MS river. We really NEED rain.

I think I'll ping Toby... see if he answers --- he's in Gulfport.


444 posted on 08/26/2005 2:52:14 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: Jrabbit
Forget about it....if you wish hard enough...let's make sure Katrina misses all coastal Texas jumps and hits your house...give me a break...it's obvious you've never been in the path of a cane...

Personally, I'd rather be bone dry than hope that a cane hits Texas...now having said that...you were kidding weren't you? ;o) LOL

445 posted on 08/26/2005 2:55:17 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: NautiNurse; All; rodguy911
The middle and lower Keys are still getting buckets .. I haven't seen any flyovers from KeyWest .. has anyone? I can't imagine how the Keys will deal with this much rain.

Looking forward to hearing from rodguy.

446 posted on 08/26/2005 2:55:17 PM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: STARWISE

There prolly won't be any flyovers until the weather clears...


447 posted on 08/26/2005 2:56:48 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: onyx

My guess (and it is just a guess) is that the NHC forecast track will shift some to the west before it all is done. If so, and the storm grows as expected, you'd probably get at least some outer squalls, especially if some of the curving is slower than expected.


448 posted on 08/26/2005 2:58:52 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: STARWISE

rodguy911 has posted on other threads today(came back around 9am). He just hasn't popped in here yet today.


449 posted on 08/26/2005 3:00:23 PM PDT by lifacs
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To: LA Woman3
It looks like Mississippi/Alabama, but better to be prepared. I filled up the vehicle with gas and got a few minor things. Hopefully the worst will be the traffic from those evacuating, New Orleans always dodges the bullet, but they are long overdue for a hit. Governor Blanco has issued state of emergency for Louisiana to get prepared. I saw a survey done last month and I think 65-70% of people in that soup bowl (New Orleans) said they would not evacuate even if a Cat 3 or 4 were to hit.
450 posted on 08/26/2005 3:02:24 PM PDT by Ellesu (www.thedeadpelican.com)
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To: shield

Yep, rooting for hot and clear in Houston, an easy tradeoff versus a cat 4 and weeks without A/C or a roof. Luckily there's a High that should keep it out of Texas (but wondering if that could move east and the storm slide southwestward and around it before curving back into TX? Probably not, but will be relieved when it finally curves.)


451 posted on 08/26/2005 3:03:05 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: NautiNurse

Just looked at that loop. The 553 photo seemed to show it heading back wsw again though. It might be wobbling a bit right now.


452 posted on 08/26/2005 3:04:08 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: silentknight
Impressive little storm. Still has a ways to go though before she becomes a cat 4 or 5.

It has time. I don't think it can go much further west than New Orleans, which means that the New Orleans landfall is a slim possibility. But I'm hoping it hits the least populated shoreline possible, because I see it becoming a very powerful storm before landfall.

A New Orleans or Mobile landfall would be devastating in terms of lives and damage if the intensity is what I'm predicting.

453 posted on 08/26/2005 3:05:40 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Ellesu

I saw a survey done last month and I think 65-70% of people in that soup bowl (New Orleans) said they would not evacuate even if a Cat 3 or 4 were to hit.

There are your Democrat voters......


454 posted on 08/26/2005 3:06:16 PM PDT by LA Woman3
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To: All

18z GFS hits NO

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_072m.gif


455 posted on 08/26/2005 3:06:48 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

west of NO, to be exact.


456 posted on 08/26/2005 3:08:04 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

I think she's done with the southerly component. There has been a hint of a north of west jog in the past while.


457 posted on 08/26/2005 3:09:42 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: silentknight

Nice image.


458 posted on 08/26/2005 3:12:06 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: NautiNurse
NHC model has now caught up with the rest. LBAR has been left with a LA landfall since yesterday's 1514 update.
459 posted on 08/26/2005 3:12:23 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: nwctwx

That puts NO on the dirty side.Not good.


460 posted on 08/26/2005 3:13:45 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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