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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: shield
We were acting like spoiled kids yesterday needing you. You've SPOILED US...LOL...

Check is in the mail...

;o)

241 posted on 08/26/2005 9:29:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: jsh3180

Oh gosh ... can't believe you still have power. Stay safe and dry. You must be in a conch bunker.


242 posted on 08/26/2005 9:30:05 AM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: lexington minuteman 1775

Thank you for your prayers. Much appreciated.


243 posted on 08/26/2005 9:30:29 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx; cajungirl
12z GFS says, "Uh Oh New Orleans:"

eeesh

244 posted on 08/26/2005 9:31:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx
Things are going to start to get interesting around Bouy 42003 here soon.

Worldwide Bouy Page
Eastern Gulf Bouys
Western Gulf Bouys

245 posted on 08/26/2005 9:33:31 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: mhking
NautiNurse's Theorem of Atlantic Hurricanes: Atlanta always gets the remnants, regardless of landfall location, and a few tornados too.
246 posted on 08/26/2005 9:33:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
This track is TOO close to the central coast .. you have to wish you could fast forward to a brisk February morning and no weather worries... you'll be able to give seminars on storm prep.


247 posted on 08/26/2005 9:34:53 AM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: All
From flhurricane.com board

Plans and thoughts...Fri Aug 26 2005 11:35 AM

We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.

The current NHC track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.

--------------------
Jason Kelley
Chief Meteorologist
WJHG-TV, Panama City Beach, FL

248 posted on 08/26/2005 9:38:54 AM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: NautiNurse

The further West it goes, the higher the gas prices are going. Bet the gas prices go to 4 bucks a gallon if it lands near Mississippi coast.


249 posted on 08/26/2005 9:38:55 AM PDT by chemicalman (Finally an answer for the prisoner problem at Abu Ghraib: Don't take any.)
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To: nwctwx
Fortunately, the GFS is usually wrong with tropical systems.

It doesn't deserve the routine bashing it gets; it's not a worthless joke like the Canadian or the NAM....I suspect Bastardi fosters a lot of it.

Anyway, the GFS moving west is simply bringing it in line with other models.

The average of the GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS remains the top model generally, and I suspect the GUNA will move quite a bit west as soon as all the components are out in an hour, and the NHC track at 5 PM will shift west accordingly.

250 posted on 08/26/2005 9:39:13 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: chemicalman

Unfortunately, you may be right. btw--did you see the thread(s) a week or so ago screaming for oil drilling off the FL Panhandle? Those would spend a solid 4-6 months of the year evacuating.


251 posted on 08/26/2005 9:41:55 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Checking in from N.E. Miami. Fared well here, some trees down but no flooding. Power just came back up (could hear the neighbors cheer!)


252 posted on 08/26/2005 9:46:27 AM PDT by debg (Live from Miami)
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To: debg

Thank you for checking in! Good to hear you are safe, and electricity is restored.


253 posted on 08/26/2005 9:47:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Thank YOU for your contributions to "hurricane central."


254 posted on 08/26/2005 9:48:43 AM PDT by debg (Live from Miami)
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To: mhking

I feel for the folks in the panhandle. Jeepers, if I were paranoid I'd start thinking someone drew a huge bullseye over the spot, saying neener, neener, neener to Mother Nature.


255 posted on 08/26/2005 9:48:58 AM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: NautiNurse

Are you seeing (still) movement at about 265?


256 posted on 08/26/2005 9:50:02 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: STARWISE

Take this WFOR link and copy it into your Windows Media Player directly; make sure you hang on to it - they simulcast their newscasts there, and anytime we've got anything showing up in the tropics, they'll stream it there.

http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live


257 posted on 08/26/2005 9:53:09 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: NautiNurse


South Padre Island, Texas
258 posted on 08/26/2005 9:57:46 AM PDT by 38special (It'll be going off!)
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To: numberonepal
Don't think so based on radar--although it's tough to discern a direction in this loop. I almost see a SW heading--could just be a wobble.
259 posted on 08/26/2005 9:58:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I like to look at the longer spaced images (30 mins) from NOAA to get an idea of direction so I don't jump on every wobble the Doppler shows (5 minute spacing). When I turn on the Lon/Lat I get a better idea of the direction. It may be less than 265, and more like 255 which makes things start to look a little bleak for the oil platforms, Mobile and Biloxi.


260 posted on 08/26/2005 10:04:17 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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