It doesn't deserve the routine bashing it gets; it's not a worthless joke like the Canadian or the NAM....I suspect Bastardi fosters a lot of it.
Anyway, the GFS moving west is simply bringing it in line with other models.
The average of the GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS remains the top model generally, and I suspect the GUNA will move quite a bit west as soon as all the components are out in an hour, and the NHC track at 5 PM will shift west accordingly.
It probably doesn't deserve the bashing it gets... in fact, it was pretty dead on with the first landfall in FL. Models continue to shift west... I think you are right with a shift west at 5pm from NHC.
The weakness is very small (NO to Pensacola area)...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html
So far she just doesn't seem to want to turn north at all.
12z model plots, definate trend west.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
