Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

We were acting like spoiled kids yesterday needing you. You've SPOILED US...LOL...

Check is in the mail...

;o)

[STARWISE]

Oh gosh ... can't believe you still have power. Stay safe and dry. You must be in a conch bunker.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for your prayers. Much appreciated.

[NautiNurse]

12z GFS says, "Uh Oh New Orleans:"

eeesh

[numberonepal]

Things are going to start to get interesting around Bouy 42003 here soon.

Worldwide Bouy Page
Eastern Gulf Bouys
Western Gulf Bouys

[NautiNurse]

NautiNurse's Theorem of Atlantic Hurricanes: Atlanta always gets the remnants, regardless of landfall location, and a few tornados too.

[STARWISE]

This track is TOO close to the central coast .. you have to wish you could fast forward to a brisk February morning and no weather worries... you'll be able to give seminars on storm prep.

[STARWISE]

From flhurricane.com board

Plans and thoughts...Fri Aug 26 2005 11:35 AM

We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.

The current NHC track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.

--------------------
Jason Kelley
Chief Meteorologist
WJHG-TV, Panama City Beach, FL

[chemicalman]

The further West it goes, the higher the gas prices are going. Bet the gas prices go to 4 bucks a gallon if it lands near Mississippi coast.

[Strategerist]

Fortunately, the GFS is usually wrong with tropical systems.

It doesn't deserve the routine bashing it gets; it's not a worthless joke like the Canadian or the NAM....I suspect Bastardi fosters a lot of it.

Anyway, the GFS moving west is simply bringing it in line with other models.

The average of the GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS remains the top model generally, and I suspect the GUNA will move quite a bit west as soon as all the components are out in an hour, and the NHC track at 5 PM will shift west accordingly.

[NautiNurse]

Unfortunately, you may be right. btw--did you see the thread(s) a week or so ago screaming for oil drilling off the FL Panhandle? Those would spend a solid 4-6 months of the year evacuating.

[debg]

Checking in from N.E. Miami. Fared well here, some trees down but no flooding. Power just came back up (could hear the neighbors cheer!)

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for checking in! Good to hear you are safe, and electricity is restored.

[debg]

Thank YOU for your contributions to "hurricane central."

[mewzilla]

I feel for the folks in the panhandle. Jeepers, if I were paranoid I'd start thinking someone drew a huge bullseye over the spot, saying neener, neener, neener to Mother Nature.

[numberonepal]

Are you seeing (still) movement at about 265?

[mhking]

Take this WFOR link and copy it into your Windows Media Player directly; make sure you hang on to it - they simulcast their newscasts there, and anytime we've got anything showing up in the tropics, they'll stream it there.

http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live

[38special]

South Padre Island, Texas

[NautiNurse]

Don't think so based on radar--although it's tough to discern a direction in this loop. I almost see a SW heading--could just be a wobble.

[numberonepal]

I like to look at the longer spaced images (30 mins) from NOAA to get an idea of direction so I don't jump on every wobble the Doppler shows (5 minute spacing). When I turn on the Lon/Lat I get a better idea of the direction. It may be less than 265, and more like 255 which makes things start to look a little bleak for the oil platforms, Mobile and Biloxi.