Posted on 11/01/2004 7:33:39 PM PST by therealhankatola
A group of Stanford statisticians calls the election in favor of Bush whom they give a 61.7% chance of victory versus only a 35.9% chance of victory for Senator Kerry. Bush had been predicted to win until late last week when the al-Qaqa'a missing explosives story broke and Kerry pulled ahead. But polls for the President rebounded Monday and Bush once again moved ahead of Kerry.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/predict2004/
This group uses statistical analysis of state polling data to predict the likelihood of a candidate's victory there and combines this with electoral vote distribution to predict more accurately a candidate's chances than by simple nationwide polling data alone.
GO BUSH!!!! FOUR MORE YEARS!
BS; it's not even going to be close.
Bush 65%, Kerry 34% pv.
Bush 341, Kerry 197 ev.
What is their past track record?
What's this group's track record?
Florida bump for this article. ZIPTIES on ballot boxes in early voting - no chance for fraud there. No Repub's to be found working that polling place either - just two Dimrats.
Dang. Ya beat me by five seconds :)
61.7%+35.9%=97.6% Since one of them simply HAS TO win, what happened to the residual 2.4%? Or is it their profit as bookmakers?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1265700/posts
Dang. Yet another post without MI in the running. We're trying.
This thing seems to change wildly. It is including some unreliable polls.
For those undecided voters that are lurking remember the following:
*9/11 the planning stages were on President Clinton's watch...and the reason for the deficit President Bush had to bail out the airline industry and God knows all the other businesses.
no more wildly then the polls themselves
Track record - none. Good statistical analysis, but of polling done by others. So it has the potential of GIGO.
"What is their past track record?"
I think this is the first year this group has been trying to call elections. Their methods seem straightforward, though, and their conclusions make sense. I was troubled when I noticed the shift to Kerry last week, but it makes sense in the context of the al-Qaqa'a smear campaign. Now that that story has been discredited, polling data has fallen back into line with what seems reasonable (to me at least).
2.4 percent is the chance of a tie 269-269
As I seem to remember there was a Bush blip up last Tuesday in which case we may hit the cycle just right tomorrow on a weekly basis.
Your popular vote figures are off. There's at least 40% of the country that would vote for a dead skunk if it had a (D) after its name on the ballot.
They had Bush this afternoon at 84% now this. Pretty wild swings IMO.
The tie is going to the House of Representatives, so it is not really a tie, but GWB win. I tend to believe that they must be illegally pocketing 2.4%.
What's the remaining 2.4%? Nader? A tie?
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