Posted on 10/31/2004 5:30:58 AM PST by BlackRazor
8 votes apart
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago.
Dead even.
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at just less than 50 percent in a new Dispatch Poll.
How close is this matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes out of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey — the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll.
A similar survey in late March shortly after Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination put Bush ahead by 34 responses.
However, in the past four weeks Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie with Bush. And several signs indicate the Massachusetts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio.
Kerry is ahead by 14 points among independent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state’s most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.
Meanwhile, the poll contains troubling signs for Bush. Only 44 percent say things in the nation are headed in the right direction. Fewer than half approve of his handling of Iraq and the economy. And his overall approval rating is 49 percent, a measure that many political experts say represents a ceiling on his support Tuesday.
But this election is so close in Ohio that the winner will be determined by which side gets its voters to the polls Tuesday, and by how the public perceives such late-breaking developments as the newly released video of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps the biggest question — aside from the effect of possible Election Day challenges at polling places — is how many of Ohio’s 1 million newly registered voters will cast ballots.
These newbies now represent one in eight Ohio voters, and they support Kerry by nearly a 2-1 margin in the poll.
One difference between the latest poll and the one published four weeks ago is the inclusion of more newly registered voters in the sample, whose names were in the latest available data from the secretary of state’s office. About 88 percent of the new voters — including those from Ohio’s largest counties — were among the potential poll participants.
The survey also shows State Issue 1 — the proposed state constitutional amendment to define marriage and its legal benefits as solely between a man and a woman — passing by a wide margin. However a late advertising campaign by issue opponents had not begun during part of the polling period, Oct. 20 through Friday.
With a 24-point lead, U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich appears headed to an easy win over Democratic state Sen. Eric D. Fingerhut.
And in perhaps the poll’s biggest surprise, Ohio Chief Justice Thomas J. Moyer is struggling to win re-election. He has a 2-point lead — exactly the poll’s margin of error — over Democrat C. Ellen Connally, a former Municipal Court judge in Cleveland.
The other two Republicans seeking seats on the high court — incumbent Terrence O’Donnell and Toledo Appeals Court Judge Judith Ann Lanzinger — both hold comfortable leads.
Though the economy and other traditional issues are on the minds of respondents, Iraq is an overarching topic for many.
"At first, I supported Bush wholeheartedly," said Marge Seyer, 54, a union leader from Warren. "But then after they discovered no weapons of mass destruction I thought, ‘Oh, boy, there’s a lot of money going out of the country (to fight the war).’ How are we going to get out of there? I don’t see any end of it."
Almost the opposite was expressed by Robert Snowberger, 75, a retired lawyer from Westlake, near Cleveland.
He didn’t approve of attacking Iraq but now says "in the middle of a war is the wrong time to change leadership."
Snowberger also called Bush a "positive person. I don’t always agree with him, but he’s more positive than Kerry. Kerry is wishy-washy and not at all reliable."
Phil Sommers, 69, a retiree from Stow, near Akron, said he’s upset with the accounts of missing explosives in Iraq. He was a drill instructor for the Army Honor Guard in 1955, serving three years in Hawaii.
"All those ammo dumps were there when we went in," Sommers said. "Why didn’t we do something then to secure them? Somebody should have stepped up and said, ‘We’re not going to let this get away.’ "
Unlike some veterans, he doesn’t have a problem with Kerry’s anti-war statements after he returned from Vietnam.
"I don’t think Kerry is as twofaced as they make him out. It takes guts to sit down and tell them what they don’t want to hear."
But poll participant Terri Surber said, "I think Kerry’s service is questionable at best. What he did when he got out of Vietnam amounted to treason."
The 48-year-old from Grove City, manager for a wholesale refrigeration and heating company, will vote for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.
"I think they’re what our country needs. His opponent is not the leader America needs in economics and these times of our country."
Zoran Vranesevic’s reason for backing Kerry is personal.
An unemployed mortgage broker from the Cleveland suburb of Brook Park, he has a 20-year-old brother who is a quadriplegic from a three-story fall two years ago. Vranesevic, 36, said Kerry’s support of embryonic stem-cell research would give his brother hope that he will walk again.
Keith Mussey, 43, of Brooklyn, said he voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 but now backs Bush. The teacher and former Army reservist said Kerry and Democrats are "really giving the military a raw deal" by voting against a number of defensespending initiatives.
"It just seems like Bush is more for the military, and I like that," Mussey said. "The world has changed and things are a lot different. I like the things (Bush) has been promoting over the past four years, and I don’t like the things John Kerry has been doing for the past 30 years."
State Issue 1 draws strong sentiments from both sides.
William Munro III, 18, a freshman from Aurora majoring in marketing and communication at Ohio University, supports the measure.
"The government shouldn’t be involved in people’s lives, but when you have judicial activists, the people have to get involved," he said. "I am for the protection of the sanctity of marriage."
Paulette Brumfield, 54, a Springfield housewife, said being gay is not a choice.
"You are born that way," she said. "If people want to make a moral commitment to one another, then who cares? . . . There’s enough hate in this world. If two people are in love, who am I to object?"
If Ohio is really close then Kerry will probably get it. Polls don't take into account...Massive voter fraud. And The dems are going full force with that in Ohio from what I have been reading. So lets hope this poll is B.S.
No, I'm on the president's "team," and there is very little talk of the amendment, one way or another. The whole "team" is totally focused on the math: the GOP has more voters than the Dems. All we have to do is get them out, regardless of what the Dispatch has to say. And everything I'm hearing is that the GOP turnout is going to be rock solid. See further posts here about what I'm hearing.
It's closer than I'd like...
Maybe the Dipsatch got a bad sample.
Golly gee. I wonder who this author could ever be rooting for?
Come on, Ohioans, Get our the Republican Vote!
2) I've heard rumblings through the grapevine (nothing official) that MD may well be closer than folks expect. [fingers crossed]
Fortunately you're not in charge.
"...500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago."
You've gotta love this little bit of "journalistic objectivity." With that opening, the author of the piece seems to be lamenting "How is it that Kerry doesn't have a big lead?" instead of just reporting the results of the poll. I wonder if this appeared on the opinion page or as a news story.
LOL. Why bother?
They could save a lot of time and trouble if they just put the darned thing on the Internet.
Dear BlackRazor,
I doubt their "historically the most accurate" polls have been conducted via mail.
I have real questions about that methodology.
I'd want to know how many were mailed out, and how they handled the demographic stuff. Often, mail surveys have rates of response that make the data suspect.
sitetest
The missing piece, which is the last sentence in the article, is that the response rate was ONLY 25%! They made no attempt to reconcile the non-respondents- are they the same as the respondents. Basically all this very poorly done survey tells us is that 25% are the most motivated voters, and among them it's 50/50.
The other 75% are either: split, favor Bush, or favor Kerry. No other conclusions can be made.
Basically my 9 year old daughter could have saved them the time, effort, and money by telling them the same thing.
To my knowledge, the Columbus Dispatch has always conducted their polls via mail.
Which, if it happens, puts tremendous pressure on Bush to run the table on the other close states. Exactly what Gore had to do in 2000 and very nearly did, but came up short. The tables could be turned on Bush this time around if we lose OH and come up short in a state with a small electoral vote but just enough to put Kerry over the top.
If Bush loses Ohio (and, as a result, the election) it will be because of what I have been saying all along, an inability to effectively counter the issue Kerry has been absolutely hammering and positively slaughtering Bush with: job losses and outsourcing. And the blame can be traced directly to brainless, clueless, tin-eared, heartless, lousy stupid chumps like John Snow and Gregory Mankiw and Elaine Chao, who have the unmitigated stupidity to go out and run their stinking sewers about how great outsourcing and offshoring is and of how people really, really, really should be happy that they're unemployed (or fear being so).
I hope I am proved wrong come election evening. But the closeness of these numbers, plus the strength Kerry has been showing in places that have been, up to this point, solid conservative Republican, causes me no end of worry.
So anyway, this poll does tell us a lot of things.
-More women than men filled out the survey. That sounds about right.
-Very few minorities filled out the survey, they very much underperformed the general population. Possible ambivalence in the minority vote?
-Did you know that 12% of the state population makes more than $90k per year? Neither did I. Either that or the top income earners self-selected to a very high degree, which is exactly what a social scientist would expect I bet.
- Issue 1 (gay marriage) wins the white vote by 62% but the Black vote by 70% wow! This one I believe but the sample of black voters is way too small (194) to be sure of anything on the minority vote.
-Ok now this is getting silly, If this is a generic sample of the Ohio population then 15% of Ohioans have a post-graduate degree. which is double what the census says.
I think I've made the point that this poll is useless for predicting who Ohio will vote for but makes for some great entertainment for amateur demographers.
exactly, see my other post, bet you can spot some other inconsistencies. come on it's fun!
i guess it's ok to be honest about your principles when it comes to foreign policy but don't dare speak the truth about the economy?
all protectionists can vote for kerry til we end up living in hobbit holes like swedes with an 80% tax rate and muslim population or they can come back to bush like pat buchanan with hat in hand
the PA steelworkers defecting from bush after two years of protection can go stuff themselves along with the rest of you RINOs
So this individual has bought into the lie that has been debunked, but he apparently doesn't pay much attention or doesn't care -- just as long as he has something to bash Bush with.
Do you think Bush will win?
Or a couple dozen friends. :)
I dont believe Amish return mail polling... ;)
Remember the Amish...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.