Posted on 10/31/2004 5:30:58 AM PST by BlackRazor
8 votes apart
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago.
Dead even.
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at just less than 50 percent in a new Dispatch Poll.
How close is this matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes out of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey — the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll.
A similar survey in late March shortly after Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination put Bush ahead by 34 responses.
However, in the past four weeks Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie with Bush. And several signs indicate the Massachusetts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio.
Kerry is ahead by 14 points among independent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state’s most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.
Meanwhile, the poll contains troubling signs for Bush. Only 44 percent say things in the nation are headed in the right direction. Fewer than half approve of his handling of Iraq and the economy. And his overall approval rating is 49 percent, a measure that many political experts say represents a ceiling on his support Tuesday.
But this election is so close in Ohio that the winner will be determined by which side gets its voters to the polls Tuesday, and by how the public perceives such late-breaking developments as the newly released video of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps the biggest question — aside from the effect of possible Election Day challenges at polling places — is how many of Ohio’s 1 million newly registered voters will cast ballots.
These newbies now represent one in eight Ohio voters, and they support Kerry by nearly a 2-1 margin in the poll.
One difference between the latest poll and the one published four weeks ago is the inclusion of more newly registered voters in the sample, whose names were in the latest available data from the secretary of state’s office. About 88 percent of the new voters — including those from Ohio’s largest counties — were among the potential poll participants.
The survey also shows State Issue 1 — the proposed state constitutional amendment to define marriage and its legal benefits as solely between a man and a woman — passing by a wide margin. However a late advertising campaign by issue opponents had not begun during part of the polling period, Oct. 20 through Friday.
With a 24-point lead, U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich appears headed to an easy win over Democratic state Sen. Eric D. Fingerhut.
And in perhaps the poll’s biggest surprise, Ohio Chief Justice Thomas J. Moyer is struggling to win re-election. He has a 2-point lead — exactly the poll’s margin of error — over Democrat C. Ellen Connally, a former Municipal Court judge in Cleveland.
The other two Republicans seeking seats on the high court — incumbent Terrence O’Donnell and Toledo Appeals Court Judge Judith Ann Lanzinger — both hold comfortable leads.
Though the economy and other traditional issues are on the minds of respondents, Iraq is an overarching topic for many.
"At first, I supported Bush wholeheartedly," said Marge Seyer, 54, a union leader from Warren. "But then after they discovered no weapons of mass destruction I thought, ‘Oh, boy, there’s a lot of money going out of the country (to fight the war).’ How are we going to get out of there? I don’t see any end of it."
Almost the opposite was expressed by Robert Snowberger, 75, a retired lawyer from Westlake, near Cleveland.
He didn’t approve of attacking Iraq but now says "in the middle of a war is the wrong time to change leadership."
Snowberger also called Bush a "positive person. I don’t always agree with him, but he’s more positive than Kerry. Kerry is wishy-washy and not at all reliable."
Phil Sommers, 69, a retiree from Stow, near Akron, said he’s upset with the accounts of missing explosives in Iraq. He was a drill instructor for the Army Honor Guard in 1955, serving three years in Hawaii.
"All those ammo dumps were there when we went in," Sommers said. "Why didn’t we do something then to secure them? Somebody should have stepped up and said, ‘We’re not going to let this get away.’ "
Unlike some veterans, he doesn’t have a problem with Kerry’s anti-war statements after he returned from Vietnam.
"I don’t think Kerry is as twofaced as they make him out. It takes guts to sit down and tell them what they don’t want to hear."
But poll participant Terri Surber said, "I think Kerry’s service is questionable at best. What he did when he got out of Vietnam amounted to treason."
The 48-year-old from Grove City, manager for a wholesale refrigeration and heating company, will vote for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.
"I think they’re what our country needs. His opponent is not the leader America needs in economics and these times of our country."
Zoran Vranesevic’s reason for backing Kerry is personal.
An unemployed mortgage broker from the Cleveland suburb of Brook Park, he has a 20-year-old brother who is a quadriplegic from a three-story fall two years ago. Vranesevic, 36, said Kerry’s support of embryonic stem-cell research would give his brother hope that he will walk again.
Keith Mussey, 43, of Brooklyn, said he voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 but now backs Bush. The teacher and former Army reservist said Kerry and Democrats are "really giving the military a raw deal" by voting against a number of defensespending initiatives.
"It just seems like Bush is more for the military, and I like that," Mussey said. "The world has changed and things are a lot different. I like the things (Bush) has been promoting over the past four years, and I don’t like the things John Kerry has been doing for the past 30 years."
State Issue 1 draws strong sentiments from both sides.
William Munro III, 18, a freshman from Aurora majoring in marketing and communication at Ohio University, supports the measure.
"The government shouldn’t be involved in people’s lives, but when you have judicial activists, the people have to get involved," he said. "I am for the protection of the sanctity of marriage."
Paulette Brumfield, 54, a Springfield housewife, said being gay is not a choice.
"You are born that way," she said. "If people want to make a moral commitment to one another, then who cares? . . . There’s enough hate in this world. If two people are in love, who am I to object?"
Columbus Dispatch poll ping!
LOL. Why bother?
The Columbus Dispatch is not only historically the most accurate poll in Ohio, but in terms of average candidate error, it has been the second most accurate poll in the country. And it makes sense. The people who take the time to fill out a mail-in ballot on their own (without being prompted by a phone call), are the people who are most likely to really show up and vote on election day.
I'd almost rather they say "we just made some numbers to generate interest in the outcome".
I feel it my duty to report this every chance I get.
This is what happend to me yesterday (Saturday).
I live in a sKerry state. :^{ (Maryland)
I am a Republican and for the first time in my life, I volunteered (free of charge! Take THAT you paid sKerry volunteers!!) to help my party.
Six Republicans (self included) went door to door in two local towns to GOTV of our fellow Republicans and here's how that experience shook out for me:
We were in groups of 3 teams of two people and given a list of adresses of registered Republicans to contact.
Homes I visited: 77
Of those homes about 60 people were home.
There is a high turnover of residents in this area so some on the list no longer live there or were renting to others.
ALL of the Republicans contacted are going to or have already voted for President Bush!! Only ONE Republican was undecieded!
We came across SEVEN democrats now living where Republican once did, and of those, FOUR were going to vote for President Bush!! ONE even wanted to know how to get a B/C 04 yard sign!!! I got goose bumps! Almost cried! (well not really).
From what it looked like to me, is the dems have taken this state for granted. The looks on the faces of the democrats we did encounter that were voting for sKerry was priceless!!
Can you imagine being a dem and having a Republican show up at your door step asking you to vote for Bush!?!
To get to my point, Take Heart and don't believe the POLLS!! I know of no Republican voting for sKerry. I now know of at least SEVEN dems who are voting for Bush/Cheney!! And this is in a sKerry State!!!!
I am afraid not sending Bush into Ohio for those 2 or 3 weeks back when is going to hurt us big time. Never will understand what Rove was thinking. Denco
What I can NEVER understand is, why is it the President's fault if the job market SUCKS in Ohio? And, what's is he or she supposed to do about it?
I'm sure the intro to this piece is an example of the polls unbiased nature.
Were you canvassing in a primarily Republican precinct?
Sounds like you did a great job in Maryland !
I went door to door in Philadelphia with a bunch of people from NYC yesterday and am going back today. To my shock, there were a bunch of college kids from NYU who came down by bus to volunteer for Bush.
I only had one undecided Republican ( a World War II vet), but I think he was going to vote for Kerry. His wife was for Bush. I got yelled at twice by Dems ( high turnover in the neighborhood where we were too). But some of the Republicans we met had gone to see Bush speak last week in PA and were pumped.
I don't know if it's going to work but the Prez's team is counting on the Marriage ballot bringing out their voters in big numbers. </sound of dice rolling>
Dead even and Bush loses ... the 'Rats can gin up enough bogus votes to put Kerry over the top ... not only in Ohio but nationally. In order to win Bush has to be up in the polls on election eve by a minimum of 3 or 4. Anything less and we'll be waking up Wednesday AM and hearing the liberal news media chortle about President-elect John Kerry. Katie Couric will entertain viewers with the first on air orgasm.
I got the finger once by the passenger of a car that passed by and a couple of dirty looks but that was all. Most dems I came across were polite. Glad to say.
Really silly stuff.
I think it was a recognition that the Democrats were putting EVERYTHING in to Ohio over the last year. And it's possible that we might lose even WITH Bush traveling to Ohio (for the record, I expect to win there). So they had to do an end-around and make sure other Gore states come in to play. The Democrats haven't put nearly the effor in to the five states that Bush now leads slightly in that Gore won. Not only CAN Bush win without Ohio... many pundits are now predicting that's exactly what WILL happen.
I'm confident that Bush will pull out Ohio with all the reports on FR coming from the ground.
The most important thing is to go vote and take a friend with you.
Excellent point. Bush & Rove - master strategists! OH=20 EV, WI=10, NM=5, MN=10, IA=7. Sounds like a good trade-off to me.
Here is the way to look at this poll IMO. This poll was conducted over a 10-day period starting on October 20th, which definitely does not cover the full court press that the Bush team has made there down the stretch. Secondly the article states that they have attempted to add new registrations for the first time in their poll. Bush was ahead by 7% in their last poll, but it was also tied in the one before that. So that would tell me that Bush definitely has a lead in the more traditional voting numbers, so the Kerry campaign is totally hinging on a great turnout by these first time voters to have any chance at all. And the forecast looks like rain in Cleveland and elsewhere in Ohio on Tuesday, so that could impact these first time voters. Finally, I still don't think any poll is able to reflect the awesome GOTV effort that the Bush campaign has in place, which was completely non-existent in 2000.
They haven't been hearing what I'm hearing. Boy are they gonna be stunned.
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