Posted on 10/28/2004 10:07:24 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic — one that could claim more than a billion lives, the head of the Russian Virology Institute, Academician Dmitry Lvov said at a press conference organized by the RIA-Novosti news agency on Thursday.
“Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months,” Lvov said. The expert did not give a timeframe for the epidemic, but said that it is highly probable that it will start this year. “We are half a step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe,” the academic said.
The Russian expert said that U.S. researchers possessed data suggesting that if a pandemic hits, up to 700,000 people will fall ill in the United States. He said that the population of the United States can be roughly compared to that of Russia and thus the number of cases will be approximately the same.
The academician said the pandemic was most likely to be caused by the so-called bird flu stem. “The death rate among those who contract this type of flu reaches 70 percent,” Lvov said.
The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic. The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds if an epidemic breaks out, he said.
THey have been saying that for the last 2 years. I have never had a flu shot and have never caught the aachoooo, excuse me, flu.
Under this definition, it's within the realm of possibility that I could win the Mega-Millions lottery this week, that a large meteor could hit the earth within the next several years, or that the Boston Red Sox could win the World Series in my lifetime (whoops, strike that last one).
The real question for serious people is: what are the actual odds of such a cataclysmic event happening? Five percent, once percent, .001 percent? Without this kind of perspective, it moves from the realm of the serious to mere fearmongering. Medicine has advanced just a little bit since 1918.
Look on the bright side, land will be really cheap!
***“Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months,” ***
Where does the FLU go when the southern Hemisphere is in their winter and we are in summer? Does the flu go on vacation somewhere for the other six months?
Wasn't it only a couple of months ago that a lighter, less virulent strain of flu was predicted for this year? Or was that only until there was a vaccine shortage?
Your recollection is correct.
You know all those stories about whales collectively beaching themselves every year? That's because the flu goes out to sea, and the president of whale nation may soon find it is an election issue for him too.
SOURCES? It said in the article that the Center for Diease Control said it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you go to the CDC website you will get all the confirmation you need!! Right from the horses mouth!!
I'm not an oddsmaker, but I am a "serious" person. A world-wide Flu pandemic can happen and will likely happen at some point in time. It will take some time for the deadly genetic shift to occur (proven cases of the human-to-human bird flu infection have been documented over the past 5 years). A wide-spread pandemic could happen this winter, or at any point in the future. This event can't be predicted.
Every year the CDC tries to predict the Flu strains coming for the next winter season and these strains are formulated into the next vaccine. However, they are not always right in their selection. The current 2004/2005 flu vaccine would have limited or no effect on a "bird" flu pandemic.
You are correct that medicine has avanced in the past 86 years. Because the US and the industrialized world will have access to the newer anti-viral medications, mortality rates can be controlled to some extent in the event of a Flu pandemic. However, in the less developed parts of the world that may not have full access to these medications, there could be a death rate of epic proportions.
Agsin, infectious diseases such as Inflenza that have the potental reach to kill 100's of millions in a matter of weeks should be taken very "seriously". This is not "fearmongering". This is reality!
Gin-soaked raisins, maybe?
Maybe this will happen in Russia because they have poor sanitation and poor medical facilities, and they live in more crowded conditions.
Flu Vaccine Not Working--CDC Admits. What are Your Options?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had two choices when it came down to which flu formula to use for winter 2003. Should they stick with the same formula used last year in 2002, knowing that a new strain of the bug was developing? Or should they attempt to make a new vaccine that could possibly come with complications or delays and that could result in a shortage?
The first sign of the new flu bug showed up just two weeks before the committee was scheduled to meet. The scientists who track the flu had noticed a new strain was gathering mass. The overall decision to bring back the older version was decided on the fact that there wasn’t enough time to produce a new flu vaccine.
The committee met this past February and was told that the current vaccine might not work in protecting people from the new strain.
Even though the committee voted 17-1 to bring back last year’s version, they all have admitted that they made the wrong decision.
ABC News December 15, 2003
Try www.mercola.com do a search on the flu shot
Influenza has a fairly well defined propogation period of 8-12 weeks over the winter months. The CDC and WHO provide sentinel monitoring of mortality and viral subtypes during the Flu season. You can see weekly reports at www.cdc.gov. Since the southern hemisphere is opposite of the northern hemisphere in the timing of their winters (and their flu season), the peak seasons are 6 months apart.
What evidence do you have to refute the man?
None what so ever, only a burp of so much hot stinky air.
If you consider the perilous state of the health in the former Soviet states, the density of population in Asian and South American, even Mexican cities, massive deaths from an out of control flu virus is well within the relm of possibility, even probability.
America and Canada and the Western Euro states all have relatively healthy population, well fed, fat and happy. We do not suffer from internal parasites or persistant infection. We are not already weakened by general life.
In America we apparently have adequate vaccine to protect those at risk and more importantly, have the ability to deliver to those most at risk.
Most of the world doesn't have the vaccine and more importantly, even if it did does not posess the resources or bureaucratic ability to do so.
The scientist has some difficulty with numbers.
Prediction: The same people getting all worked up about this "flu scare" this year, are the same that got all worked up last year about SARS. Remember SARS? Yeah, that was supposed to be the next "Captain Tripps", remember that?
Am I right? <---- rhetorical question to any reader of this post
With any luck they'll all be communists, liberals and Islamic fascists.
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