Posted on 10/28/2004 10:07:24 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic — one that could claim more than a billion lives, the head of the Russian Virology Institute, Academician Dmitry Lvov said at a press conference organized by the RIA-Novosti news agency on Thursday.
“Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months,” Lvov said. The expert did not give a timeframe for the epidemic, but said that it is highly probable that it will start this year. “We are half a step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe,” the academic said.
The Russian expert said that U.S. researchers possessed data suggesting that if a pandemic hits, up to 700,000 people will fall ill in the United States. He said that the population of the United States can be roughly compared to that of Russia and thus the number of cases will be approximately the same.
The academician said the pandemic was most likely to be caused by the so-called bird flu stem. “The death rate among those who contract this type of flu reaches 70 percent,” Lvov said.
The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic. The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds if an epidemic breaks out, he said.
Still a big controversy - Western scientists estimated about 15-25 million deaths, but anecdotal reports from Russia and China indicate that number might have been about a third of the actual deaths. I think the problem is that for so many countries there were lots of other issues going on, and it was a bit hard to determine a flu death versus a malnutrition death.
I think you are about right. And clearly, the current batch of flu is 50 times worse than any previously seen flu strain ...!
Modern medicine will be powerless to treat the victims! To get the flu will be a Death Sentence! Whole countries will be depopulated! The Universities will be emptied! People will flee the pestilential cities! The dead will be unburied! Civilization will crash!!!!
On the other hand, John Kerry does have this plan, which could save us all...
Hmmm... and 1918 was the last time the Red Sox won the World Series.
The number depends on the source you read. The estimates range from 20 million to 50 million worldwide. According to the CDC, an average of 36,000 people per year in the United States die from influenza, and 114,000 per year have to be admitted to the hospital as a result of influenza.
Thank you
does russia have 300,000 spare beds? it appears that they are using 299,999 of them to screw the united states as it tries to fight terror.
It will be Bush's fault, of course.
Hate to say it...but.....with any luck...
Uncle Sammy started telling people after 9/11 to start taking care of themselves.....time to kill off the weak so that the strong survive....
6 billion people will die over the next 60 years.
Wuhut?
Elizabeth Edwards is out on the stump telling supporters that if Kerry is elected, flu vaccine will be made with new technology that doesn't require the use of eggs.
Yeah, I will get worried about this when they give us a real reason instead of sketchy details.
These flu bugs have morphed themselves to deal with all the drugs, cillins, ets. The little buggers wouldn't know what to do if we let our own system do what it was designed to do.
Unless he turns out to be right. Then who'll be around to untuck it?
What is your "expert" background? Are you aware that in the winter months of 1918 and 1919 the "Spanish" Flu killed between 20 and 100 million people in the world. It is estimated that a similar pandemic today could kill up to 3 million Americans alone.
Now, the 1 billion world-wide deaths is probably high for a repeat of the virus type (H1N1; a normal human subtype) encountered during the 1918 pandemic. However, the bird flu jump that has been seen in Hong Kong and in other asian locales in recent years identified virus strains of sub-types (H5N1, H9N2, and H7N7) that do not normally infect humans. This is important because the human population has no natural immunity to these subtypes. If (really more a question of when) one of these "bird" subtypes makes the complete genetic jump to infect humans, a world pandemic could result. With no natural immunity to the H5, H9, or H7 hemmaglutinin subtypes, 100's of millions would be at risk for death world-wide. This would make AIDS look like a mere blemish. This expert buffoon knows that such an event is within the realm of possibility.
There is some hope for control of this potential problem. A few years back several new broad spectrum (neuraminidase inhibtor) flu anti-viral drugs became available. These drugs have been shown to be active against the "bird" flu subtypes.
The potential for a world Influenza pandemic is quite real (probably not this year) and should be taken seriously.
It is really hard to estimate the world-wide deaths in 1918 from the Flu pandemic. The low threshold estimate is 20 million. The high threshold estimate is 100 million. And, it is estimated that 500,000 died in the US.
All this talk about the flu... I wouldn't let a nurse near me with a flu shot.
His figures don't make sense at all. Since he thinks that 700,000 will fall ill in the US, then adjusting for population differences, if Russia fell ill at the same rate, about 350,000 would get the flu in Russia, and he thinks nearly all of them (300,000 hospital beds in reserve) will need to be hospitalized -- all at the same time!
He must be angling for some sort of funding.
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