Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.
UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."
Kerry's new drinking song (you all saw the photo of Macho Man in the bar):
We had joy, we had fun,
We had seasons in the sun
But the stars we could reach
Were just starfish on the beach.
We had joy, we had fun,
We had seasons in the sun
My campaign, I did find
Was just windmills in my mind.
Bush continues to poll in the low 50s while Kerry polls in the low to mid 40s. Good! This poll result is a slight tightening from the 54-40 result last time, but that last poll seemed to be a bit of an outlier anyway. 52-44 is more in line with most other national polls.
McGovern 38.2% in 1972. Don't know how Mondale did, but I think he was above 40%.
I said somewhere in a different post that Bush will win all but 10 or 11 states. Right now he is well within the margin or in striking range of all but 10 states.
1972.
If true, it would suggest that Kerry's Iraq attacks have been successful in turning his depressed supporters who weren't going to vote into "likely voters", but has done little to win over independents. We shall see.
Bush 41 in 1992 at 38% assuming you mean D and R candidates only.
Oops, forgot about that one. Before Bush 41, there was McGovern in 1972. 1972 was certainly the last time that the winner had over 60 percent of the vote. Clinton got only 43% in 1992.
Yeah, but there's also Maine, Oregon, New Jersey, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The dike is getting more leaks than the Dims have fingers!
We need to know the precentage of deceased voters who intend to vote before I know Kerry's probable tally.
Thread Bump!!! There have been multiple instances of this phenomenon this election, still wondering if anyone has any instances of this from the 2000 election?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1226896/posts
I look at it like this: several weeks ago the Bush camp said it looked like they were 6 points up. McCurry said at a DNC fundraiser in CA a week and a half ago that their polls had Bush up 7 points. All the major polls now pretty much validate this.
Rush mentioned today that Kerry had a lead of 5% of dead voters. Not sure of the source.
GWHB scored 37%
Actually, this is a myth. Kennedy and Nixon were tied going into the debate, Kennedy got a three point bump, but had lost it again by election day (the election essentially ended in a tie.
The only election that was materially affected by a debate was 1980. Carter had actually led Reagan going into that debate, but there was a massive shift immediately following the debate that continued to Election Day. If you actually crunch the pre-and post-debate poll numbers, there is simply no hard evidence -- again leaving aside the 1980 election -- that they were materially affected by debates.
Counterproducers of the world, unite! Make the debates one big worryfest. (yeah, i'm worried too;hope he doesn't project poorly)
Add to that: I've been waiting for hanoi john to do the honorable thing, ala Bob Dole, and resign his Senate seat.
You should focus on elections where there was no major third-party candidate, since George H.W. Bush received only about 37% of the popular vote in 1992.
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