Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Pyro7480]

I'm looking at the loop from the NASA GHCC page, and I see what you mean. It looks like it's going to skirt the Mississippi river delta.

[mhking]

Thanks -- I'm adding it to the list:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=

[LikeLight]

I'm too stupid to understand latitude and longitude coordinates, but as a member of the vast right wing pajamasphere, I can sit my cursor right on the edge of the eye on the real time radar loop and watch as the eye wall moves (in this case, away from my cursor toward the north west) . . .

[Gabz]

I've read some horror stories about Camille in the mountains.

I don't live in the mountains, in fact if I jump I'm about the highest point in this area, it's that flat. I have no clue where the weather we are currently getting is coming from, but we've had nearly 1.5 inches of rain since 8am and our ground has been so waterlogged from so much rain this summer we can't handle any aftermath of ivan - let alone anything else that might come this way.

sheesh....I never thought I would say this - but I would actually prefer snow right now.

[Pyro7480]

See my post #421. Great minds think alike, and almost at the same time. ;-)

[Sam Cree]

I can't get over the way so many folk's minds work, I just don't understand wanting to go out and just screw someone.
At the very least, you've got to live with yourself afterwards.
Yet, I think most of these bozos take pride in what they did.

[tutstar]

bumping this post so I don't lose that link in a million posts.

Just saw that they have 2pm curfew today!

[tutstar]

yep, looks like it may be Baby Karl on the way....

[mhking]

From WPMI-TV Mobile: Curfews 6P-6A, beginning tonight.

[gopwinsin04]

Waves crashing over Lakeshore drive!

[Gabz]

Or they could sell it to me!!!

We've had to put off a remodelling job because the price of plywood has been so outrageous.

[wxdawg]

Live stream from NBC affiliate WPMI-TV in Mobile...

http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/viewerpage.php?Art_ID=36468

[Hatteras]

Down around Biloxi
Pretty girls are dancing in the sea
They all look like sisters in the ocean
Boy will fill his pale with salty water
And the storms will blow from off towards New Orleans...

[hoosierpearl]

We were hit by a hurricane a few years ago and had no insurance. FEMA paid about half of our loss and members of our church paid another third, so a large part of our loss was covered. I was grateful for FEMA. They sent someone out and took pictures and we got the money a few weeks later.

[Types_with_Fist]

See my post #421. Great minds think alike, and almost at the same time. ;-)

Whoever said "Southwest Pass" may have been right on.

[Sam Cree]

Flat is good in flooding situations, I think.
That's the way it is here in the Miami area.
Still, if you get heavy rains, there will be places where it will collect and flow dangerously and become surprisingly deep, so please be very careful.

[jrcats]

Another storm east of Jeanne? This is getting to be too much. By the end of the 2004 hurricane season Florida will be battered from north to south, east to west & hope to be still standing.

[commish]

Movement is definately NNW, about 340-350. Should bring it ashore right around Biloxi, but one wobble left an NOLA gets it, one wobble east and it goes right into Mobile Bay.

[AntiGuv]

I think we'll make it at least through Paula this year..

[commish]

GOtta love Jimmy Buffet! Speaking of, lots of people "Tryin to reason with Hurricane Season" at the moment.