Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[GOP_1900AD]

This morning a local non-network station's meteorologist here in the Bay Area (on KRON-4) showed a model called TITAN which depicted landfall not far from where I guessed yesterday - Southwest Pass!

[Chemist_Geek]

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

A 520 mile-wide swath of tropical storm force winds. It's going to be bad no matter where it lands.

[mhking]

What does the track look like once it hits land? I live 60 miles east of Atlanta.

We're in for it once it lands -- it is due to make a beeline for Chattanooga, then stall out.

We'll be getting rain from the remnants of Ivan AT LEAST through Monday -- you might be far enough east that you won't suffer like those of us further west (I'm on the Cobb/Douglas/Fulton line west of Atlanta, and yes, near the 'Hooch).

[Sam Cree]

There is some more disturbed weather out in the Atlantic:

"Satellite images and ships reports indicate that the area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave...centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde...has become a little better organized since yesterday. There is some potential for development during the next day or two as the system moves toward the west or west-northwest."

[gopwinsin04]

Councilman predicting a 10 foot surge from Mobile with a direct hit there, said they might be able to withstand it--but not a slow moving 3, 4 or 5.

[mhking]

some more disturbed weather out in the Atlantic

ANOTHER ONE!????

[Pyro7480]

I second that emotion! We need another one like we need another collective hole in our heads!

[cogitator]

Oh MAN. 45-50 feet significant wave height. That's INTENSE.

[GOP_1900AD]

It is already nearly as far west as the furthest west point in the official forecast track (88.2 deg W long). Not good.

[MissAmericanPie]

It looks like it's going to slam right into New Orleans. I'm so scared for the folks along the coastline. They are all in my prayers.

[Gabz]

I second that emotion!

Third!!!!!

[mhking]

I've got a radio station stream going in Biloxi: http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx

[No Blue States]

939 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...HURRICANE SHELTER INFORMATION...

THE LOUISIANA HURRICANE SHELTER TASK FORCE WILL OPEN THE CIVIC
CENTER IN LAKE CHARLES AT 10 AM FOR RESIDENTS EVACUATING AREAS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY HURRICANE IVAN.

FOR INDIVIDUALS TRAVELING WEST ON I-10 FROM LAFAYETTE...TAKE EXIT 29 EASTBOUND AND CONTINUE EAST ON THE SERVICE ROAD. TURN RIGHT WITH THE SERVICE ROAD AFTER HARRAH'S CASINO AND THE CIVIC CENTER WILL BE AHEAD ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE. THE STAGING AREA IS UNDER THE MARQUEE
AT THE CIVIC CENTER.

FOR INDIVIDUALS TRAVELING EAST BACK FROM TEXAS...TAKE EXIT 30A OFF OF I-10 AND TURN BACK UNDER THE INTERSTATE ON THE SERVICE ROAD...
HEADING EAST. TURN RIGHT WITH THE SERVICE ROAD AFTER HARRAH'SCASINO AND THE CIVIC CENTER WILL BE AHEAD ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE.
THE STAGING AREA IS UNDER THE MARQUEE AT THE CIVIC CENTER.

[DouglasKC]

It is already nearly as far west as the furthest west point in the official forecast track (88.2 deg W long). Not good.

I keep looking at the loop...the last loop was from 10:45 AM EST...darned if it doesn't look like the eye is still headed straight for New Orleans.

[Sam Cree]

I'm hoping that tomorrow's tropical weather outlook, North Atlantic, will have dropped any reference to what I just read!

Considering that we aren't rid even of Jeanne yet.

I suppose this hurricane season will be good for sales of Valium, Xanax, and spirits, not to mention plywood, if nothing else.

Hoping for the best for the folks in the Mobile area, a scary time for them today.

[LikeLight]

And still trending ever so slightly north and west . . .

[Sam Cree]

"I suppose this hurricane season will be good for sales of Valium, Xanax, and spirits, not to mention plywood, if nothing else."

Oh yeah, and church attendance, too.

[Gabz]

Made a note of it.

for the moment WWL-TV is working just fine for me.

I hate being without the cable - and I can't get through to the office.

[numberonepal]

Bouy Update:

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	32.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.46 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	46.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	32.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.62 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	+0.03 in ( Rising )

[Gabz]

And not just in the Gulf states.......but further up the east coast as well.