Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[dawn53]

I just compared city conditions in Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi and NO. New Orleans wins with the highest wind speed.

[No Blue States]

Louisiana State Information from IWIN:
(watches, warnings, public info, forecast, radar, etc)

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/la.html

[gopwinsin04]

Trending 340-350 degrees north..

[dawn53]

The news on today's radio (WFLA Tampa Bay) is that people around here are returning their plywood to Home Depot now that the threat of the storm has past.

This is the plywood they stood in line for, waiting hours to buy.

LOL! Hard to believe.

[Truth666]

Last Frame show sharp west move

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/09L.IVAN/ssmi/vis1km/LATEST.jpg

[Sam Cree]

Yes, true, heavy rains in the mountains are no joke. I remember well Camille in the VA.

[jpsb]

Yup, it is running out of time to turn.

[vetvetdoug]

I heard the false reporting and the truth about the apartment debacle while stationed at Keesler in the early 1970's. I went to the location of the Apartments there in Pass Christian and all there was there was a slab and the entire area was open.

[Chemist_Geek]

The news on today's radio (WFLA Tampa Bay) is that people around here are returning their plywood to Home Depot now that the threat of the storm has past.

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Why return it, so they can stand in line for hours the next time a hurricane threatens? No, far better to get it cut and sized correctly, mark the pieces, then store it for quick and convenient shielding next time the storms approach.

[gopwinsin04]

Not a total shock, this storm is already considerably west!

[wxdawg]

Streaming audio of WPMI NewsRadio 710 in Mobile:

http://radio.wpmi.com/main.html#

[Orlando]

I agree, they need to save them.

[Pyro7480]

Here's the trend from the past few advisories:

Advisory - Position
50A - 24.7N, 87.0W
51 - 25.1N, 87.2W
51A - 25.6N, 87.4W
52 - 26.1N, 87.8W
52A - 26.7N, 87.9W
53 - 27.3N, 88.0W

Hopefully, this indicates that the westward component to its track is lessening. Let's hope it stays that way.

[Sam Cree]

"people around here are returning their plywood to Home Depot now that the threat of the storm has past."

I guess they plan on buying it again if there's another threat? Home Depot probably figures on this ahead of time, but it's really not fair. I found out when buying a prom dress for my daughter that those things aren't returnable for just that reason, people try to use 'em just once, then return them, that way they get the use of them for free. Very dishonest.

[Willie Green]

It makes a HUGE difference if you're on the east or west side of the eye.

IIRC, they rotate counterclockwise, so the east side would get hit with the strongest wind coming off the sea as it comes ashore. (The winds on the west side would have slowed because they've already passed over land.)

Please correct me if my assumption is wrong.

[nathanbedford]

Sound wisdom. I am trying to do just that from 8,500km away.

[Chemist_Geek]

I found out when buying a prom dress for my daughter that those things aren't returnable for just that reason, people try to use 'em just once, then return them, that way they get the use of them for free.

Around here, don't ever buy a TV, especially a large screen one, in January - store policies make them impossible to return due to people doing the same thing for the college bowls and Super Bowl.

[AntiGuv]

The latest track has Biloxi in the crosshairs!

[gopwinsin04]

The Louisiana Superdome now open as a 'special needs' shelter! (I hope they can vouch for it being structurally sound)

[Types_with_Fist]

Yup, it is running out of time to turn.

I keep hearing "turn" but I'm not seeing a major turn. This thing is still headed for lower Plaquimines Parish and looks like Pnchatrain could get a chunk of the eastern part of the storm. Right at the mouth of the river.