Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[BurbankKarl]

well, if that is the case, lets bring in a lot of dirt and build the city up 20 feet higher

[JellyJam]

I can't even type right ... that's how nerve-wracking this is. :-)

[Miztiki]

Can you tell me which post shows this ridge and strong front? Learnin' here.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Where are you at?

[nightdriver]

"What view are you basing that on?"

That first one posted, the satellite shot of the water vapor. It's a little skewed and it shows that Ivan has made an end run around the west end of Cuba and is way north of the path it was headed for when it was just south of Jamaica.

[lainie]

[JellyJam]

Sarasota!

[nwctwx]

It's amazing how big this storm is, it looks like a nasty line... I guess you have to get a little piece of every one there! ;)

[sheikdetailfeather]

Oh My Goodness!

[HAL9000]

you can see that some of the models do still favor a florida strike,

The models depicted in the map are two days old. Which color path has Ivan followed? (Bonus if you can provide the RGB values of the path).

[Dont Mention the War]

Wednesday Morning Front Page, New Orleans Times-Picayune (PDF file, great pic of fleeing traffic)

[jeffo]

The insurance companies have already been playing that game in Florida. Its a story which has yet to bubble up to the top but the companies are paying 30-50% replacement costs... if they pay at all. And of course, most people have between $2-4K deductables and no way to cover it to make the repairs. Some with damage from 2 hurricanes, so actually 2 deductables(I am one of them).

And FEMA... the joke down here is that FEMA has sent thousands of highly trained specialists who will listen very carefully and sympathetically to your problem before denying you aid.

Its a scandal.

[JellyJam]

You got that right.

But it sure seemed like people were complacent here today, like "Whew, we dodged another bullet," but these outer bands can be nasty. They're ripe for tornadoes.

[pete anderson]

well, if that is the case, lets bring in a lot of dirt and build the city up 20 feet higher

That is exactly what happened in Galveston after the 1900 storm. Raised the city 20 Feet and built a seawall.

New Orleans is much bigger and you would need to build the levys higher and stronger. And if the storm surge comes into the lake, nothing will help.

I would say there is a 5-10% chance that this will be the biggest disaster in American History.

[jeffo]

The models depicted in the map are two days old. Which color path has Ivan followed? (Bonus if you can provide the RGB values of the path).

My bad on that image, Hurricane Alley is having problems and no longer gives you the spaghetti run for free.

[nwctwx]

Thanks, I did not see it before. I added it to my links compilation.

It's a surface observation map from SE ASOS stations. The lines point in the direction the wind is moving, the numbers near the dots on land represent Temp/DP. The numbers in the water appear to be buoy readings of Sea Surface Temperature. It's a handy map.

[lainie]

Are you in St. Pete? (sorry if I misremember)

That loop you posted Tuesday shows a bit of Ivanescence lashing the shore already...

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ei/isaefls.gif

[pete anderson]

That could be the last Times Picayune ever pubished.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I know what you mean. So far it's gone the direction I felt it would right through the middle of the channel between Yucatan and Cuba and it sure looks to me like it's going more towards Texas than Florida... just a layman with female intuition.

What I wonder... is there any impact due to the Hurricane in the Pacific. As far as the crow flies they aren't so far apart and the Pacific Hurricane looks like it may take a jog to the NorthEast.... do these things ever feed off one another???

[vox humana]

I don't think Ivan has moved east at all, has it?

No. With each update of the NWS 3-Day Forecast Track, the track has moved slightly to the West. The track is now just inside the Mississippi state line. The previous graphic had the track inside the Alabama state line.