Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[AntiGuv]

If my back were against the wall, I'd give it slightly better odds of Pensacola landfall than Mobile landfall. The difference is almost trivial, but now that the northeastward turn has begun I think it will end up just a bit over rightward from due north of its current position.

[12.7x99mm]

well the wobbling looks like its going to pretty bad. I wouldn't know sitting up on my mountain in the NW cascades.

Stay safe again if your there.

[Types_with_Fist]

I'm watching this Here. It takes a minute to load. If you refresh every so often you'll get the constant latest movement.

[libtoken]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 54


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 15, 2004



satellite imagery this afternoon shows an expansion of cold eyewall
convection...especially on the west side...and a clearing out of
the eye. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported an
central pressure of 933 mb...and the NOAA aircraft reported peak
winds at 7000 ft of 132 kt. Underneath that flight-level wind the
stepped frequency microwave radiometer reported 108 kt. It appears
that Ivan is beginning to respond to the warm pool over which it
has been traversing today. The maximum winds have not yet increased
but may do so over the next few hours. However...slightly cooler
waters exist just offshore...and little net change in strength is
expected prior to landfall.
Ivan remains basically on track...with an initial motion estimated
at 355/12. There has been essentially no change to the track
forecast...with landfall expected in about 9 hours. However...Ivan
has a very large windfield and damaging winds will move onshore
much sooner than that. The ECMWF model finally gave up on a New
Orleans landfall today...resulting in a well-clustered guidance
envelope until well after landfall...where there are a variety of
possible solutions for the remnants of Ivan. The official forecast
continues to show the possibility of a major flooding event over
the southern Appalachians late in the forecast period.
The large circulation of Ivan can be expected to bring hurricane
force winds well inland...perhaps 150 miles or so.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/2100z 28.4n 88.3w 115 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 30.2n 88.3w 115 kt...on the coastline
24hr VT 16/1800z 32.2n 88.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 17/0600z 33.8n 87.2w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 17/1800z 35.0n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 18/1800z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 19/1800z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 20/1800z...dissipated


$$

[AntiGuv]

You should be glad you're in those mountains and not here in the southern Appalachians. Ivan's probably gonna get stuck up here and dump 20inches of rain on us, and we're still waterlogged from Frances!

Beats being in Mobile, though..

[commish]

Just reported on Hurricane.net --Tornado on the ground - back beach Rd. Panama City, FLA!!

[backhoe]

National Data Buoy Center, NWS link

  Here are some important bouy references that will become increasingly interesting as the day progresses.
National Data Bouy Center Homepage
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS.
Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
Station 42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.
Station 42041 - North Mid Gulf 110NM South of Grand Isle, LA

 

[AmericanMade1776]

I ironically, have 3 and half pounds of fresh "gulf" shrimp in shell, that I am going to steam in some Zatarains Shrimp and Crab boil, later....plenty of cocktail sauce for dipping, beer a chillin'

[Vigilantcitizen]

Just reported on Hurricane.net --Tornado on the ground - back beach Rd. Panama City, FLA!!

Oh man...I've got a very good friend that lives right off of back beach road.

[cogitator]

With an 18-foot storm surge, about 3/4 of Mobile will be underwater.

[Conservababe]

Boil them shrimps in some beer.

[Miztiki]

I would be scared if I was you. I was in Opal in north Georgia and lost some trees in my yard, along with a few sections of the barn roof. I was alone and it was my first (and only) experience with a hurricane. I hope you keep power but if you don't, remember that you're not alone! We will all be here thinking about you!

[4everontheRight]

You are a cruel, cruel human being!

Zatarains is the best! I buy it in the bottle!

[djf]

Hurricane force winds as much as 150 miles inland... WOW!

[Gabz]

No such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beach.

I agree!

Are you taking 13 to 113 to 50 t get there or home? If so, I'm only 2 miles from 13. I'm also only an hour from OC!!!

[commish]

Prayers for your friends.

I will be out for a while, just got word that Sam's just got a truckload of the one thing I am lacking --Flashlight Batteries!

[No Blue States]

"The large circulation of Ivan can be expected to bring hurricane force winds well inland...perhaps 150 miles or so."

I hope there are no traffic jams.

[12.7x99mm]

I get rained on every other day almost but thats the way it is here. These last two summers have been better. I really feel bad for those people down in the flat lands of SE America right now.

[Types_with_Fist]

Mobile should be in the red very shortly. Plaquemines Parish in Louisiana is near the center of the storm. I hope our beloved Southwest Pass makes it through.

[LadyPilgrim]

Thank-you! We are still babies to some of you though!
If it wasn't for the Lord in our lives, no telling where we would be!

We just got back from the grocery store. They are out of everything.
From looking at the radar, things have gotten worse since I left a while ago.