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Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15
NWS, NHC, various
| 9/15/2004
Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a
Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.
Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan
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To: nwctwx
Pressure down to 933mb now, Ivan continues to strengthen.Right before landfall, Andrew intensified about 20 knots in about the distance Ivan has left to cover!
To: nwctwx
Pressure down to 933mb now, Ivan continues to strengthen. Judging by the pressure, the well defined eye, and my total lack of professional meteorlogical experience, I wouldn't be surprised if this were a cat 5 again by the time the eye hits land.
To: LikeLight
i'm running this off my cable modem, and my internet connection is a little sluggish. plus my little webserver isn't very powerful.
To: Dawgmeister
Pier at Ft. Walton is ok I was going to say it had to be. It was newly rebuilt after OPAL. Build to withstand a Cat 5. I love that Pier (ant the Angler Restaurant attached to it!)
1,064
posted on
09/15/2004 1:45:51 PM PDT
by
Warren_Piece
(Just thinkin' about women and glasses of beer.)
To: gopwinsin04
Advisory 54 out 4PM CDT
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued west of Morgan City Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 28.4 north... longitude 88.3 west or about 125 miles south of the Alabama coastline. Ivan is moving toward the north near 14 mph...and this motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Ivan is expected to reach the coastline very late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. Sustained winds at the Dauphin Island C-man station were recently clocked at 45 mph...with gusts to 59 mph. A buoy about 75 miles south of Dauphin Island reported 50 ft seas. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
1,065
posted on
09/15/2004 1:46:55 PM PDT
by
commish
(Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
To: mhking
A buoy about 75 miles south of Dauphin Island reported 50 ft seas.Holy Cow!
To: Pyro7480
Hunker down, all in harms' way: gonna be a long night. Hope to hear from you out the other side.
1,067
posted on
09/15/2004 1:47:43 PM PDT
by
alancarp
(When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
To: Severa
I have a fake powerball ticket but the numbers are correct, can I collect 72 million bucks? (lol)
Crews from Oklahoma and Kansas now coming to restore power in NOLA..
To: gopwinsin04
You're just jealous. I can tell you wish it was you tempting fate with a Cajun princess on your arm. Shades of Titanic.
To: mikenola
You sure the board's not up already?
To: alancarp
W5WA Ocean Springs, Ms --- 33 MPH Winds, Gusts to 44, pressure 29.63 and falling.
1,071
posted on
09/15/2004 1:48:46 PM PDT
by
commish
(Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
To: mikenola
You're having a blizzard outside you're front window!!! All I see is white! (with some funny "x" shaped red snowflake...)
Seriously though, stay safe and board up that window before it gets so windy that you can't hold the board up there. Just in case, you also might want to put a roll of toilet paper in a plastic bag. I can't imagine life with wet toilet paper.
1,072
posted on
09/15/2004 1:50:01 PM PDT
by
Miztiki
(Living in Hoooston and getting lost on a regular basis!)
To: DouglasKC
Judging by the pressure, the well defined eye, and my total lack of professional meteorlogical experience, I wouldn't be surprised if this were a cat 5 again by the time the eye hits land. That is what I fear, also. The eye has realy reorganized the past 4-5 hours. Very sharp features. The dropping pressure indicates strengthening. My guess is that it will hit dead center of the coast between the Alabama/Mississippi state line and Mobile Bay, with Mobile Bay receiving the brunt of the storm surge. Winds of 140-145-MPH. The vacation homes and condos of the Alabama Gulf coast will be obliterated.
To: Warren_Piece
Pier at Ft. Walton is ok I was going to say it had to be. It was newly rebuilt after OPAL. Build to withstand a Cat 5. I love that Pier (ant the Angler Restaurant attached to it!)
Nope. Pier is damaged and getting hit worse.
1,074
posted on
09/15/2004 1:51:00 PM PDT
by
balrog666
(There is no security on this earth. Only opportunity.)
To: commish
On the Satellite I've been watching there was a jog to the northeast and now what looks like movement to the north. It's close enough to the mouth of the Mississippi for Southeast Louisiana to get a bit of a clobbering. Meanwhile, Mobile seems set to get the right of the storm surge and if it moves north and to the east the brunt of the thing. Good luck all!
To: mhking
Bush needs to add faster loading radar loops to his platform, it will be a landslide.
To: Types_with_Fist
Where are you watching this?
1,077
posted on
09/15/2004 1:53:12 PM PDT
by
Howlin
(What's the Font Spacing, Kenneth?)
To: numberonepal
Do you have the latest buoy data??
1,078
posted on
09/15/2004 1:53:53 PM PDT
by
Pyro7480
(Sub tuum praesidium confugimus, sancta Dei Genitrix.... sed a periculis cunctis libera nos semper...)
To: Types_with_Fist
Steve Lyons on TWC said around Pensacola and points west storm surge of around 20 feet with waves 30-40 feet on top of that. That is amazing.
To: Miztiki
Thanks man that's a good tip.
Let's try this one and see if it works:
It's not all that interesting anyway, just giving me something to do to keep my mind off things.
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