Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 54
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

 
...Category four Hurricane Ivan bearing down on northern Gulf
Coast...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

 
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
west of Morgan City Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of
Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

 
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 28.4 north... longitude 88.3 west or about 125 miles south
of the Alabama coastline.

 
Ivan is moving toward the north near 14 mph...and this motion is
expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track...the
center of Ivan is expected to reach the coastline very late tonight
or early Thursday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan
is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three
or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane
Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the
surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a
30-story building.  After landfall... hurricane force winds could
to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 290 miles.  Sustained winds at the Dauphin Island C-man station
were recently clocked at 45 mph...with gusts to 59 mph.  A buoy
about 75 miles south of Dauphin Island reported 50 ft seas.

 
The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft was  933 mb...27.55 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

 
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

 
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

 
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern
Alabama...the Florida Panhandle...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...28.4 N... 88.3 W.  Movement
toward...north near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 6 PM CDT and 8 PM CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

$$

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