Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[AmericanMade1776]

MOBILE, Ala. Cities and counties along the Alabama Gulf Coast are imposing mandatory curfews as Hurricane Ivan comes ashore. Times vary, but no foot or vehicle traffic will be allowed from dusk-to-dawn.

Curfews are now in effect in Mobile, Monroe and Washington counties. Also included are the cities of Daphne, Fairhope and Spanish Fort. The city of Lucedale in nearby George County, Mississippi, also has placed citizens under a mandatory curfew.http://www.wkrn.com/Global/story.asp?S=2304711

[Maximum Leader]

LOL
That's great!

[No Blue States]

Glad you are ok mike, heres some info someone might have use for.

I looked at your pic, it doesnt look bad at your place so far, good.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004


THE RISK OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES MOVING NORTHWEST OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...ALONG WITH ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF HURRICANE IVAN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING TORNADOES AND THEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[gopwinsin04]

Nothing like getting married at the end of a French Quarter bar in a hurricane..

[mewzilla]

I rememeber Agnes. And not fondly, either.

[Dawgmeister]

Hmm, I noticed that they seem to keep the doors open during a hurricane.

[numberonepal]

BOUY UPDATE 13:50 CDT
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	50.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	62.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	42.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	17 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.09 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.32 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS.
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	42.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	20.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	17 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.55 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.13 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	35.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.49 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[gopwinsin04]

'The bartender says we get a free jukebox play for our wedding song! I'm so glad I found this ring in the Crackjack box today'

[united1000]

You may be right.  I did read last night of an estimate of 13B+ for Charley, but for the life of me I can't find it to post a link.......  They also agreed with you on Ivan. 

 

These records are horrible in themselves for what they stand for; but to me they show how insignificant we are when it comes to Mother Nature.  She can sure sling em....and in that they are scary as h#%% but magnicifient.  Guess I'm weird!

[vollmond]

He might have a mega-rich grandma, and is a future trust-funder. You never know.

[commish]

Back from Hurricane Prep Duty. Maxwell AFB is now secured and all personnel have been Ordered to report to thier quarters by 1800 tonight and to remain indoors until the All Clear is given.

I am at home, and will be securing the outside of Casa de Commish. Ready to hunker down and listen to the wind howl later tonight.

[No Blue States]

Thats the same thing I said when someone sent it to me. Your very Welcome. ;o

Current Warnings for Louisiana:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/warnings.html

Current Warnings for Mississippi:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ms/warnings.html

Current Warnings for Alabama:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/al/warnings.html

Current Warnings for Florida:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/warnings.html

[gopwinsin04]

The bartender said the bar has only been closed for 12 hours in something like 30-40 years.

[Dog Gone]

Tomorrow we'll find out how badly Mobile and other communities were damaged, get some reports on the offshore oil and gas platforms that are being battered right now, and then settle down for three or more days of reports of catastrophic flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas.

In the meantime, Jeanne is picking up steam, and Africa is jettising follow up baby storms as fast as she can.

To top it off, we have reports of retarded Florida residents trying to return plywood for refunds. Unbelievable.

[LikeLight]

Good job. Thanks for your service! Now hunker down.

[gopwinsin04]

People in outer reaches of NOLA now advised to hunker down..

[commish]

Thanks for the chuckle. :-) Floriduh residents again LOL

[Dog Gone]

New vortex reading. Pressure is 933 mb.

[Ditter]

Do you know which parts of NO are below sea level?

[AmericanMade1776]

Try not to hold my breath, until tomorrow this time...when the worst will be over along the coast. Seems like an eternity..but it is only 24 hours.