Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Sam Cree]

Best wishes and prayers for them if they are there in Daphne now. I hope they are on high ground.

I used to sometimes stay at the Hampton Inn in Daphne off I-10 when driving in to visit my son in NO. Overlooks Mobile Bay, a beautiful spot.

[jeeperz]

Finally SW FL (Naples) is clear not sunny but no longer overcast with clouds.

Best to all this bad boy is heading for!

[alancarp]

Meanwhile, the FR servers seem to be melting down...

[jeeperz]

Finally SW FL (Naples) is clear not sunny but no longer overcast with clouds.

Best to all this bad boy is heading for!

[AmericanMade1776]

Thank you Sam...I think they are on High Ground...they seem to think they are prepared.

[dandelion]

My daughter is stationed at Eglin AFB, and they were under mandatory evacuation orders as of 6AM yesterday; if the AF says they should go, I'd think one ought to leave if one possibly can...

[gopwinsin04]

Looters haver already been arrested.. Mayor now busing citizens from local schools to the Louisiana Superdome, 911 only to be used in emergencies

[nerdgirl]

I agree - I wish no harm on anybody on the Gulf Coast - but you can't compare some flooding in Mobile - annoying & costly as it could be - but it just can't compare to the absolute catastrophe that you could have in NOLA.

[BurbankKarl]

CBS was supposed to issue some statement on the Dan Rather Forgeries...I bet that is causing the meltdown...



At zoo, tiger is in; rhino is out
Staffers who did not flee the city combed the Audubon Zoo Wednesday morning, feeding and checking on the 1,500 animals who live there, said public relations director Sarah Burnette.
Hundreds of birds, such as the Marabou stork, were taken from cages exposed to the elements and put in kennels, “like you’d put a dog in,” Burnette said.
Some mammals, such as the rhino, can decide whether to roam their outdoor enclosures or indoor pens. But the white tigers won’t have that option.
“Just in case their enclosure should be breached,” they will be kept in their night pens, Burnette said. “We don’t need them roaming around.”
Burnette said zoo officials hope to re-open Friday

[Severa]

My husband is (well WAS *L*) attending Navy Aircraft Mechanic school at NAS Pensacola. Last time I talked to him was yesterday morning, before they sent all non essential personnel to area shelters.

[cogitator]

I concur with your assessment. Is Cantore in Pascagoula yet?

[dfwgator]

Staffers who did not flee the city combed the Audubon Zoo Wednesday morning, feeding and checking on the 1,500 animals who live there, said public relations director Sarah Burnette.

And they all ax for you.

[1066AD]

CBS Dan Blather statement now put off 'til 5pm.

[alancarp]

LOL! That's right! We gotta check to see where Mr. Bullseye is!

[agrace]

Thought it was just me. :)

[Hatteras]

"That will be coming this weekend, I'm sure."

Now, you better hush! I'll be in Ocean City, MD this weekend. Just remember, there's no such thing as a bad day at the beach.... There's no such thing as a bad day at the beach.... There's no such thing...

[gopwinsin04]

Mayor now says Red Cross will not serve any area below sea level in a level 2 hurrican or above.

[Dawgmeister]

Pensacola to Mobile are under tornado warnings already with storms coming ashore. Pier at Ft. Walton Beach has already collapsed. I'm sorry for NO too, but we have our problems as well.

[BurbankKarl]

windspeed 40 knots in Mobile

[alancarp]

Last report from the buoy (which is 2 hours old -- may be non-functional): 57mph, gusts to 72 in 42 foot seas. Still around 70 miles from the eye.