Posted on 08/04/2004 4:37:47 PM PDT by ambrose
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Marist College Poll. July 30-Aug. 2, 2004. N=839 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.5), including 573 likely voters (MoE ± 4). |
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"If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" |
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| Bush/ Cheney |
Kerry/ Edwards |
Nader/ Camejo |
Unsure |
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| % | % | % | % | |||
| Among likely voters: | ||||||
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7/30 - 8/2/04 |
47 |
47 |
1 |
5 |
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7/12-15/04 |
46 |
47 |
1 |
6 |
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| Among registered voters -- with leaners: | ||||||
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7/30 - 8/2/04 |
46 |
47 |
3 |
4 |
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7/12-15/04 |
46 |
47 |
3 |
4 |
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Right. Remember how 2002 was going to be close? Instead we got a MONSTER GOP BLOWOUT.
That's a joke, right?
When I took part in a Zogby online poll, I transformed myself from a middle-aged white stay-at-home mom into a young single working man with a post graduate degree making over $100,000 per year, who is also a member of a minority race.
Was that lying? I just thought it was being creative, LOL!
It is going to be very tough for him to get those last few points and move from 47% now up to the 49+% he will need to win the election. W, on the other hand, has his convention coming up, and the Iraq and economic news have mostly been good the last several weeks.
The race is still far from over, but W is in very good shape at this point.
Just your "version" of the truth.
BTTT!
"I think the same sex marriage vote in Missouri is a much more solid indicator of where the election is headed."
I agree. A couple of questions.
1) Do you or anyone else know the % of turnout in MO? I heard a prediciton by the Election Commission there of 37% prior to polls opening.
2) Also, aren't states like OR and MI going to have this same ballot initiative Nov 2? Are there a few other states also?
No joke - take a look at the electoral map, and explain how Bush loses the election while winning the popular vote. The reverse can be true - Bush wins the electoral college, but loses the popular vote, because Kerry can rack up monster sized majorities in states like California and New York.
I remember having this futile argument with Freepers back in 2000. People argued back then that Bush would win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college. The exact opposite was true.
Nice theory, but I wouldn't count on it. What we need to do is get the vote out in the battleground states.
If people live in those states and are not working for Bush now, get up and WORK! Share the load and share the fun!
http://www.bushforpresident.com
Kerry is stuck at 47 with registered voters after selecting Miss America as a running mate and the dem convention. 47 with RV's ain't gonna do the job.
We have the same problem in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Star Tribune consistently under estimates Pubbies at this time of the year by 4-8% and occasionally more. While the results tend to improve closer to the election, the Star Tribune usually still under estimates Pubbies.
IMHO part of the problem is sampling error (under estimating the true proportion of Pubbies)and the fact that the "undecideds" consistently in our State break toward the Pubbie column at the end of the election cycle. It would be interesting if thes findings are mirrored in other states.
Not really, DEMOCRATS, and yellow dog Democrats at that, voted against gay marriage. Don't count on them voting for Bush.
Texans will be voting in droves this time but I agree with your take. The dim can run up huge margins in New York and hefty margins in California. Bush can loser the popular vote and win the EC, Kerry can't.
Hugh Hewitt was saying that there are some 800,000 registered democrats and some 500,000 registered republicans in the state.
In addition, many of the large Southern states that gave W big vote margins back in '00 look like they may actually be a bit closer this year as opposed last time. This also suggests that if W wins the popular vote, he's a lock in the electoral college.
No Challenger with a ZERO bounce has EVER won the white house. I think someone said they had to have a double digit lead coming out their convention to have won the white house on election day. Keep in mind, Dukakis was up 17 points at one time on Bush 41. Bush approval numbers arent too bad. Like to see him up over 50% consistantly. But he is nowhere near Carter and Bush 1 on approval. Much closer to Clinton and Reagan.
This was to be the "high water" mark for the Kerry candidacy. He needed to have a double-digit lead coming out of this convention to offset the gains that Bush is sure to make in the weeks ahead. The fact that the race is a dead heat in the aftermath of the DNC convention (with the RNC yet to come up to bat) is an unmitigated disaster for the Kerry camp and there is no way they can spin this positively.
The gloves are coming off on Kerry and what you saw today with the Vietnan Vets is only just the beginning. The Bush campaign has plenty of ammunition to use on Kerry and they are going to bury this phoney-baloney piece of crap. Of that I am certain.
Gay marriage constitutional amendment, gambling amendment and Democratic gubernatorial primary battle brought out many voters. (The Democratic incumbent governor lost, first time in state history an incumbent governor lost to a challenger from his own party.)
That is one hosed up web site! CA called for the 'Rats? Data over two months old? Some over 3 months old? BOGUS SITE!
You actually think Bush has a chance to win California?
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