"I think the same sex marriage vote in Missouri is a much more solid indicator of where the election is headed."
I agree. A couple of questions.
1) Do you or anyone else know the % of turnout in MO? I heard a prediciton by the Election Commission there of 37% prior to polls opening.
2) Also, aren't states like OR and MI going to have this same ballot initiative Nov 2? Are there a few other states also?
Not really, DEMOCRATS, and yellow dog Democrats at that, voted against gay marriage. Don't count on them voting for Bush.
Gay marriage constitutional amendment, gambling amendment and Democratic gubernatorial primary battle brought out many voters. (The Democratic incumbent governor lost, first time in state history an incumbent governor lost to a challenger from his own party.)