Posted on 02/21/2004 11:27:51 AM PST by ambrose
NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004
Saturday February 21, 12:43 pm ET
Sixty-Eight Percent Say Jobs, Foreign Competition Very Important In Determining Vote for President; Bush, Kerry Nearly Even on Who Would Be Better at Protecting U.S. Jobs and Creating New Ones
Kerry Keeps Lead Over Bush; Edwards Ties Bush in Test Match-Up; 52 Percent Say No to Re-Electing Bush
NEW YORK, Feb. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Sixty-eight percent of registered voters polled say American jobs and foreign competition will be very important in determining their vote for president this year; 22 percent say it will be somewhat important, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. When asked which presidential candidate would do the best job of protecting American jobs and creating new ones, regardless of the candidate they may support, 35 percent of registered voters say President George W. Bush would do the better job, but Democratic contender John Kerry gets 31 percent of the vote; 18 percent say it would be Kerry's opponent John Edwards. And 55 percent of all those polled disapprove of the way Bush is handling American jobs and foreign competition; just 32 percent approve.
Eighty percent of those polled say a major reason for the loss of American jobs to foreign competitors, is that people in other countries are willing work for lower pay and 77 percent say a major reason is investors and CEOs want profits and don't care where they come from. Sixty-one percent say it's because other countries have lower environmental and worker health standards; 56 percent say it's because consumers in this country want everything at the lowest possible price and 42 percent say it's because of weak corporate leadership in this country.
As the Democratic presidential campaign winds down to a race between Kerry and Edwards, Kerry maintained a big lead as the preferred Democratic nominee with 54 percent of the vote among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, the poll shows. Edwards received 19 percent of the vote. In test match-ups, Kerry maintained his lead over President Bush from one week ago in the Newsweek Poll and Edwards ties Bush, the closest showing yet for the Democratic contender. But with the margin of error of 3 percentage points, the candidates are in a statistical dead heat. Among registered voters, 48 percent say they would vote for or lean toward voting for Kerry, compared to 45 percent who say the would vote for or lean toward voting for Bush. (In the February 5-6 Newsweek Poll, Kerry lead Bush 50 to 45 percent). Edwards ties Bush at 46 percent among registered voters. (In the February 5-6 Newsweek Poll, Bush lead Edwards 49 to 44 percent). If the election were held today with a Bush/Cheney ticket v. a Kerry/Edwards ticket, Kerry/Edwards leads by 49 to 45 percent among registered voters. And when asked if they'd like to see Bush re-elected to another term as president, 52 percent of registered voters say no; 43 percent say yes. And 38 percent of registered voters say Bush is somewhat likely (31% say very likely) to be re-elected this year. Forty-eight percent of Americans polled approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, the same as one week ago in the Newsweek Poll.
In the wake of the controversy over Bush's obligations for military service in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War, 49 percent of those polled say they're inclined to believe that Bush fulfilled the obligations; 33 percent have serious doubts about it. And 58 percent of all those polled say they think of Bush as an honest person by nature; 34 percent do not see him this way.
In deciding which Democratic presidential candidate to support this year, 49 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they are personally more inclined to vote for the candidate who comes closest to their way of thinking on major issues; 42 percent say they are inclined to support the candidate with the best chance of defeating Bush in November. Regardless of the Democratic presidential candidate they may support, 57 percent say Kerry would do a better job leading the war on terrorism (10% say Edwards) and 45 percent say Kerry better understands the concerns of people like them (30% say Edwards).
On the topic of free trade and jobs, 35 percent of all those polled say NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade Organization) have been a bad thing for the United States; 28 percent say they've been a good thing. Sixty-eight percent disagree with a statement from a government official who recently said that "outsourcing" of American service jobs to other countries is not only inevitable but is good for Americans; only 23 percent agree with that statement.
On the topic of legalizing gay marriage, 45 percent of all those polled says they oppose any legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples; 23 percent support full marriage rights for the couples and 24 percent support civil unions or partnerships, but not gay marriage, the poll shows.
Thirty-nine percent of those polled say they would support a Constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage in all 50 states; 33 percent say it should be left up to individual states to pass their own laws about gay marriage and 23 percent support full marriage rights for gays. While 23 percent of registered voters say the issue of gay marriage will be very important and the same number say it's somewhat important in determining their vote for president this year, 20 percent say it's not too important and 32 percent say it's not at all important, the poll shows.
This poll is part of the March 1 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, February 23.) For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,019 adults aged 18 and older on February 19-20, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
W 45% - kerry 45%
W 43% - Kerry 42% - Nadar 4%
W Approval @ 48%
Fox News Poll
MOE+/-3% (Reg Voters) 02/18-19/04
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kerry 48% - Bush 46%
W Approval @ 47%
ARG Poll
MOE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/17-19/04
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Kerry 55% - W 43%
W Approval @ 51%
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
MOE+/-3% (Likely Voters) 02/16-17/04
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W 47% - Kerry 47%
W Approval @ 48%
Pew Research Poll
MOE+/-3% (Reg Voters) 02/11-16/04
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Kerry 46% - W 45%
W Approval @ ??%
University of Connecticut Poll
MOE+/-2.9% (Reg voters) 02/12-16/04
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Kerry 48% - W 43%
W Approval @ 50%
CBS Poll
MOE+/- 3% (Reg Voters) 02/12-15/04
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Kerry 52% - W 43%
W Approval @ 50%
ABC/WP Poll
MOE+/-3% (Reg Voters) 02/10-11/04
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W 50% - Kerry 48%
W Approval @ 54%
CNN/TIME Poll
MOE+/-4.1% (Reg Voters) 02/05-06/04
You're right, it doesn't exist, and here's why: These polls, at this stage in the game, are comparing apples to oranges. When they ask a person - registered voter, likely voter, merely an "adult", it doesn't matter - "Bush vs Kerry, you pick," what they're doing is asking the person to make a judgment on three years' worth of governance on Bush's side, while asking little more than "Do you think he's a nice guy or not?" on Kerry's side. So of course Kerry's going to get an extra bounce on that, because hardly anyone knows anything about him.
Come September or October, that will change.
Ambrose has been posting a number of threads on FR in the last few days from old Washington Post articles published in 1980 and 1984, showing how, at various points in those election cycles, the polls were predicting all sorts of things that ended up being 180 degrees from what the voters actually did on Election Day.
It's just too early. These polls mean bupkis.
It's downhill from here.
I think freepers have given the RNC plenty of material for some great ads. ...let's spend a bunch of money and get our message out now that we have a target.
This poll can be discounted. That Newsweek is citing it is just one more unecessary bit of evidence that it can't be trusted.
Maybe, but if the election were held in 2015 on a Saturday where only dead chickens are eligible to vote, AmishDude would be the winner. FReepmail me to send your contributions.
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