Posted on 09/13/2016 9:55:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With a new poll showing Donald Trump ahead by four points in Florida (46-42), he now inches ahead by one-tenth of one percent in the Real Clear Politics average. With Hillary Clinton’s email troubles and new concerns over her health, Trump could continue to rise, provided he sticks to his script. That is never a certainty.
First, we should all wish Secretary Clinton a quick recovery. No one should want their candidate to benefit from an opponent’s medical issue. On something as serious as a person’s health, the Basket of Deplorables should be empty.
JMC Analytics and Polling, based in Louisiana, has provided Trump with his best Florida numbers over the summer. They reported a five-point lead in July.
Poll respondents were 43 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican and 18 percent independent. They were 69 percent white, 13 percent black, 13 percent Hispanic and six percent “other.”
While the margin of error is 3.5 percent, the crosstabs show a few eye-popping figures.
According to JMC, Clinton has a big problem in Florida within her own party. Only 68 percent of Democratic respondents support Clinton and 17 percent are with Trump.
This man-bites-dog statistic was not even mentioned in the poll’s summary. That is a “gee whiz” fact. Clinton is routinely considered to possess a strong advantage among party voters, gaining up to 90 percent of Democrats in most polls.
This poll shows Trump with 76 percent of GOP respondents. He has seen similar numbers in other polls. Trump has an eight-point lead among independents, also not out of the ordinary.
Another significant number comes from women, who comprised 56 percent of the respondents. JMC reveals a gender gap in Florida, but it is Clinton, not Trump, who is on the wrong end of it. Trump holds a 48-39 percent lead among men, but Clinton does no better than a 44-44 tie among women.
There’s more. Clinton enjoys the customary huge advantage among black Floridians, while Trump has a 21-point advantage with white voters. Among Hispanics, Clinton leads by only 44-42 percent.
President Barack Obama carried 60 percent of Florida’s Hispanics in 2012. If the JMC numbers are anywhere near accurate, Clinton would face a tough campaign just to earn a majority of these Floridians.
Trump leads in most parts of the state, except South Florida, where he trails by 20 points.
In the Senate race, Sen. Marco Rubio has a 43-38 percent lead over Patrick Murphy. However, when the question is asked if Rubio deserves re-election, 40 percent support, but 42 percent are against. Go figure.
What is JMC’s track record? Nate Silver’s 538 organization grades the multitude of polls around the country for accuracy. Several get A’s and B’s, while some D’s and F’s appear. JMC earned a C for work in the previous cycle.
The bottom line is the Clinton campaign is clearly leaking oil. At the same time, many would have a hard time digesting the more eye-catching numbers contained in the JMC poll.
Taken at face value, it shows the high end of where her campaign is heading in Florida and beyond. It also shows some hope for an underdog such as Murphy.
We are about to be carpet bombed with polls over the next eight weeks, some of which will tell us many different things. Head for shelter.
She’s finished in Florida.
"The Basket of Deplorables" is a scathing, dehumanizing insult from the bitch we're not supposed to be happy who's sick - did these arrogant hypocrites forget that?
One tenth of a point - friggin lying scumbags to boot.
GREAT line!
Another liberal in an echo chamber. If it was Trump, his silence would be deafening. What a joke.
Why? To be polite? I hope she does recover, soon after she is booted from the ticket. I then hope she lives a long miserable life. Throwing ash trays, yelling in the night............ I SHOULD HAVE BEEN PRESIDENT!!!...................Karma's a bitch
what will the harbingers be on nov 8. NY too close to call at 8pm NJ too close to call at 8pm polls are closed. PA too close to call at 8PM. OH too close to call. at 9PM still too close to call. SE states reporting all trump. FL goes trump. DE too close to call at 9PM. Decision at 10PM call PA Trump it’s over. NY and NJ are hillary. No one votes dem west of Mississippi. go to bed early and happy for once in a long time. now the revolution begins.
From Alaska to Florida, from Maine to Hawaii, the map will be red.
“43 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican and 18 percent independent” -— If nothing else, 18% seems awfully low.
put me in the basket of deplorables - i hope the bitch croaks.
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