Posted on 04/10/2016 5:02:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first!
Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination.
Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers “safe”. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing.
The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. “Ted Cruz wins the Nomination”.
So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his “lane”, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally… to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before.
So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to.
New York
Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls… aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%.
Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but that’s 39%… You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%. Kasich lost 5% in Wyoming and it is reasonable to think he will lose as much or more in Penn State. Which means Ted Cruz, who often surges in the undecides and those who leave other candidates, can quite easily pass Trump here..
Connecticut and Montana
Libertarian, strongly, especially in Republican ranks. Expect these to be #NeverTrump and pro-Cruz.
Delaware and Rhode Island
One closed, one Open. First is 16 delegates, the second 19. No polls, no details, but they are not in the South, which is an important note. Still I concede these States because really… It does not matter in the final math. A win here for Cruz makes it that much more painful for Trump as he gets pummeled to the Convention.
Indiana
Indiana is already a losing proposition for Trump (link) (link)
Washington
Caucus State, closed, and Ted Cruz has almost entirely secured the Delegates there with no issues. Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes. The Caucus is heavily predicted for Cruz, I call 40 of 44 for Cruz and all delegates in the delegate selection.
Oregon
Hello to the Trump team in Oregon, we saw you recently organized. Congratulations on getting paid positions. However you are about 4 months too late. We secured so much of Oregon that it will be a Ted Cruz based slate that makes the Delegates. Further your support is far weaker than our support in Oregon. We have tons of evidence of that. 25 for election, 3 from the State, 28 Delegates total. Of the 25 you will win at best 3. Deal with it. If you beg enough to Trump – maybe he will try, but I sincerely doubt it. Be prepared to be fired afterwards by him for not carrying the State or improving his numbers here. Signed the Ted Cruz Oregon Team Narlina Duke, Jeff Reynolds, Michael Harrington, Mark Callahan, Nathan Dahlin, and many more. Let me know if you ever get anyone to actually endorse you openly. I want you to know we have many candidates and a number of State Representatives and Senators on board.
For those not in Oregon, Oregon is firmly in the Ted Cruz camp. We worked hard in making this happen and the pay off is that when Trump finally showed up he has 3rd rate stringers, a few trolls, a few spies, and we have their ranks fully identified. The two major candidates who support Trump will not publicly say so, that is how bad it is here in Oregon for Trump.
Other States
Not knocking any of them, I just have to get to the other side in a concise manner. Nebraska is Ted Cruz, West Virginia is by Congressional District, South Dakota should be Ted Cruz by significant numbers… The tide is switching hard against Trump and he cannot get enough secured for a first ticket win. It is in probability terms a number equal to being stuck by lightening three times in a row. Ted Cruz has got amazing odds of making it a contested convention, and more so, his odds of winning first ticket are better than Trump’s.
Trump will be short by about 140 delegates according to my current math. This includes some insider knowledge, but there you go. That is the MINIMUM shortage by the way. It could exceed 200 delegates even :)
Delegate Fights
Since this is going to be a Contested Convention without to much doubt, we have to look at how the various States are doing. In this regards there is not much room for Trump. The panic button is pushed and he is already deeply behind. More so the remainder of the States lean towards Ted Cruz. Trump spent his load, and the New York run is the end of the line for the Trump Train. Many of the States having had voted are going to lean to Ted Cruz for delegates even if they have not selected their delegates yet. Here is a list of mostly voted States (or voting).
GOP Leader Delegates (link)
Washington (link) (link)
Wisconsin: Delegates here are actually from the candidates Slate by law. Ted Cruz all but 6 :)
Iowa (link)
Tennessee (link)
Louisiana (link)
Colorado (link) (link)
Ohio: Kasich got his Republican friends to make this so each candidate submitted a Slate and the winner gets their Slate approved. Access denied for Trump, but these will be the most rabid of Kasich supporters.
South Carolina (link)
Wyoming: Convention will nominate 14 more delegates on April 16th. Cruz won with 66% in this Caucus State. Delegate list not yet compiled of course until the Convention.
North Dakota (link)
Georgia (link) In Georgia you had to be a PCP elected a year plus ago. Trump was not even considering it. Ted Cruz was :)
Virginia (link)
Utah: 23rd April we get answers how this one goes. Spoiler: Caucus State, Cruz got 70% of the vote.
Missouri: Ted Cruz is inching out Trump in places like St. Louis and St. Charles for delegates. Votes are happening now. We get the full Slate when we win by at least 1 vote. So yeah, kicking ass and taking names in Missouri (only links are Trump ones complaining, wont post those).
Arizona no delegates selected yet, but the Ted Cruz Slate is expected to win (link)
Oregon: No link, just my word, a Ted Cruz slate is the only Slate that can push through.
Michigan: The only loss for the Ted Cruz campaign to date (link) other than Ohio.
Texas: Guess!
Conclusion
Many States have yet to make their delegations. However in most cases the State Party is leaning Ted Cruz by significant numbers. Additionally the Tea Party, born in 2010, has been taking States by storm in the last few years in the “hidden war” for the Republican Party. I listed only 18 States. Of those 18 we saw one for Kasich, and one split for Trump and Kasich. Some of this is insider knowledge, I am in a few news groups and get details people won’t see and I cannot share. However I will say this, at this juncture I am projecting that Ted Cruz has essentially secured the hearts of 1300+ delegates. This is the battle we have won. We have enough States that we could potentially unseat Reince Priebus with room to spare. It is that significant what is going on inside the Republican Party.
This is not just about Ted Cruz, we are a movement of our own inside the Party.
Now we wont be exactly kicking the Establishment out over-night. Most of the sitting people will remain there, like Mitch McConnell. We don’t have enough top candidates to challenge at the Federal level, but we are in fact winning a larger share of the State level fights by looks of it. So this is where we make the offer… Instead of frequently negotiating with Democrats, negotiate with us. We are the future of the Party. Work with us and there will be less desire to remove you, less need to do so. You can probably stay until you have decided to leave if you reasonably work with us to make the changes the voters of the Republican Party so deeply want that they almost risked electing Trump as a spoiler.
I think they already know we are here however, the endorsements Trump has gotten are from mostly the dead-enders (Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson for example) and lower level ignorant politicians. The main party can see the writing on the wall and probably are already working to make preparations to work with Ted Cruz.
The Fox News team, Lars Larson, and other right side media persons who supported Trump are doing so because either they were told to do so by their parent company and complied, because they got spammed by fake accounts making them think the support was overwhelmingly there for Trump, or because they are factually stationed in New York and have adapted those values we decry.
I will believe it when I see it.
Unfortunately, I am not expecting to see it.
Go Cruz.
Or you could refute his argument, point by point.
Trump people are certifiable now. All they have left is insults.
I hope you are right. I just don’t trust the GOPe.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but that’s 39%… You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%.
EIghty seven percent of New York voters do not want Cruz.
Of more import only 17% in Ohio, 13 % in Florida, and 17% in Virgina want Cruz and those are must win states for a Republican.
Cruz may steal the nomination with the help of the GOPe but that is where he ends his political career.
Let me amend that. Through some bizarre happening and much underhanded maneuvering, Cruz might win the nomination, but he will never be president.
You are supporting someone who will fail, and give us another democrat administration.
Thanks for the left-handed compliment. I cherish it. BTW, what did you do in the Air Force?
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2ndDivisionVet has been #1 in high quality election posting here for way more years than you have been here.
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No, it’s not correct. Don’t expect Ted State to rely on facts.
One son is a registered (R), and the other 2 are not registered with either party
Good find and very interesting read........once again exposing Trumps failure and lack of preparation not only to run an actual campaign, but equally shows he’s unprepared, by those failures and lack of taking this election seriously, that he is unfit for the office or to handle the dynamics of Washington.
I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FOR CRUZ. NOT EVER!
Those two Trumps should have gotten their registration in line the week their father announced his run. No excuse for being uninformed about registration if the family is going into politics at the top
You must be on a mission to waste more FR bandwidth than anyone ever has before. That’s a tall order, Arator may still hold the record.
You’re saying that a consistent conservative will lose to a scandal-ridden unindicted co-conspirator or a 74 year old avowed socialist?
To leave a wider tracks of the author's prediction.
I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FOR CRUZ. NOT EVER!
Since when did FR start posting science fiction?
True that.
First of all Cruz needs to get more then 20 percent overall before even discussing districts. He is at 17 percent so your post is a waste of time.
I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FRO CRUZ. NOT EVER!
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