Posted on 04/10/2016 5:02:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first!
Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination.
Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers safe. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing.
The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. Ted Cruz wins the Nomination.
So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his lane, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before.
So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to.
New York
Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trumps campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%.
Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CDs. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CDs. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but thats 39% You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%. Kasich lost 5% in Wyoming and it is reasonable to think he will lose as much or more in Penn State. Which means Ted Cruz, who often surges in the undecides and those who leave other candidates, can quite easily pass Trump here..
Connecticut and Montana
Libertarian, strongly, especially in Republican ranks. Expect these to be #NeverTrump and pro-Cruz.
Delaware and Rhode Island
One closed, one Open. First is 16 delegates, the second 19. No polls, no details, but they are not in the South, which is an important note. Still I concede these States because really It does not matter in the final math. A win here for Cruz makes it that much more painful for Trump as he gets pummeled to the Convention.
Indiana
Indiana is already a losing proposition for Trump (link) (link)
Washington
Caucus State, closed, and Ted Cruz has almost entirely secured the Delegates there with no issues. Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes. The Caucus is heavily predicted for Cruz, I call 40 of 44 for Cruz and all delegates in the delegate selection.
Oregon
Hello to the Trump team in Oregon, we saw you recently organized. Congratulations on getting paid positions. However you are about 4 months too late. We secured so much of Oregon that it will be a Ted Cruz based slate that makes the Delegates. Further your support is far weaker than our support in Oregon. We have tons of evidence of that. 25 for election, 3 from the State, 28 Delegates total. Of the 25 you will win at best 3. Deal with it. If you beg enough to Trump maybe he will try, but I sincerely doubt it. Be prepared to be fired afterwards by him for not carrying the State or improving his numbers here. Signed the Ted Cruz Oregon Team Narlina Duke, Jeff Reynolds, Michael Harrington, Mark Callahan, Nathan Dahlin, and many more. Let me know if you ever get anyone to actually endorse you openly. I want you to know we have many candidates and a number of State Representatives and Senators on board.
For those not in Oregon, Oregon is firmly in the Ted Cruz camp. We worked hard in making this happen and the pay off is that when Trump finally showed up he has 3rd rate stringers, a few trolls, a few spies, and we have their ranks fully identified. The two major candidates who support Trump will not publicly say so, that is how bad it is here in Oregon for Trump.
Other States
Not knocking any of them, I just have to get to the other side in a concise manner. Nebraska is Ted Cruz, West Virginia is by Congressional District, South Dakota should be Ted Cruz by significant numbers The tide is switching hard against Trump and he cannot get enough secured for a first ticket win. It is in probability terms a number equal to being stuck by lightening three times in a row. Ted Cruz has got amazing odds of making it a contested convention, and more so, his odds of winning first ticket are better than Trumps.
Trump will be short by about 140 delegates according to my current math. This includes some insider knowledge, but there you go. That is the MINIMUM shortage by the way. It could exceed 200 delegates even :)
Delegate Fights
Since this is going to be a Contested Convention without to much doubt, we have to look at how the various States are doing. In this regards there is not much room for Trump. The panic button is pushed and he is already deeply behind. More so the remainder of the States lean towards Ted Cruz. Trump spent his load, and the New York run is the end of the line for the Trump Train. Many of the States having had voted are going to lean to Ted Cruz for delegates even if they have not selected their delegates yet. Here is a list of mostly voted States (or voting).
GOP Leader Delegates (link)
Washington (link) (link)
Wisconsin: Delegates here are actually from the candidates Slate by law. Ted Cruz all but 6 :)
Iowa (link)
Tennessee (link)
Louisiana (link)
Colorado (link) (link)
Ohio: Kasich got his Republican friends to make this so each candidate submitted a Slate and the winner gets their Slate approved. Access denied for Trump, but these will be the most rabid of Kasich supporters.
South Carolina (link)
Wyoming: Convention will nominate 14 more delegates on April 16th. Cruz won with 66% in this Caucus State. Delegate list not yet compiled of course until the Convention.
North Dakota (link)
Georgia (link) In Georgia you had to be a PCP elected a year plus ago. Trump was not even considering it. Ted Cruz was :)
Virginia (link)
Utah: 23rd April we get answers how this one goes. Spoiler: Caucus State, Cruz got 70% of the vote.
Missouri: Ted Cruz is inching out Trump in places like St. Louis and St. Charles for delegates. Votes are happening now. We get the full Slate when we win by at least 1 vote. So yeah, kicking ass and taking names in Missouri (only links are Trump ones complaining, wont post those).
Arizona no delegates selected yet, but the Ted Cruz Slate is expected to win (link)
Oregon: No link, just my word, a Ted Cruz slate is the only Slate that can push through.
Michigan: The only loss for the Ted Cruz campaign to date (link) other than Ohio.
Texas: Guess!
Conclusion
Many States have yet to make their delegations. However in most cases the State Party is leaning Ted Cruz by significant numbers. Additionally the Tea Party, born in 2010, has been taking States by storm in the last few years in the hidden war for the Republican Party. I listed only 18 States. Of those 18 we saw one for Kasich, and one split for Trump and Kasich. Some of this is insider knowledge, I am in a few news groups and get details people wont see and I cannot share. However I will say this, at this juncture I am projecting that Ted Cruz has essentially secured the hearts of 1300+ delegates. This is the battle we have won. We have enough States that we could potentially unseat Reince Priebus with room to spare. It is that significant what is going on inside the Republican Party.
This is not just about Ted Cruz, we are a movement of our own inside the Party.
Now we wont be exactly kicking the Establishment out over-night. Most of the sitting people will remain there, like Mitch McConnell. We dont have enough top candidates to challenge at the Federal level, but we are in fact winning a larger share of the State level fights by looks of it. So this is where we make the offer Instead of frequently negotiating with Democrats, negotiate with us. We are the future of the Party. Work with us and there will be less desire to remove you, less need to do so. You can probably stay until you have decided to leave if you reasonably work with us to make the changes the voters of the Republican Party so deeply want that they almost risked electing Trump as a spoiler.
I think they already know we are here however, the endorsements Trump has gotten are from mostly the dead-enders (Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson for example) and lower level ignorant politicians. The main party can see the writing on the wall and probably are already working to make preparations to work with Ted Cruz.
The Fox News team, Lars Larson, and other right side media persons who supported Trump are doing so because either they were told to do so by their parent company and complied, because they got spammed by fake accounts making them think the support was overwhelmingly there for Trump, or because they are factually stationed in New York and have adapted those values we decry.
“He lost the entire east coast for Gods sake both north and south. He got Maine with 8,000 participation out of 2.9 million people. I hope Cruz loses badly in November!!!!!!!”
1. The “entire east coast” can go pound sand. Cruz will win the sane States from the entire country.
2. Cruz defeated Trump in Maine, which I am sure is in the “east coast”.
3. Cruz will destroy the Witch and tRump will go back to being a Democrat. He probably spend a couple of years regurgitating birther accusations against President Cruz.
There you have it. Cruz is inevitable. Just ask Presidents Romney, Santorum and Ron Paul.
Who can argue with that logic?
How many on FR are independents and not Rwpublicans or Democrata. I know I am one and many others are as well. So I guess since we are not registered Republicans we are the enemy.
Is Cruz a NBC according to 2nddivisionvet's definition, from his own posts, or not.
This has nothing to do with Trump.
It has to do with hypocrisy.
......”Your candidate is deeply in cooperation with precisely the establishment he has claimed is ‘The Cartel’ -> he’s joined it”.......
No.....’THEY’ are joining with who they see will be the winner TED CRUZ. That’s how it works when the field narrows....they get to choose too ya know!
If Cruz is the nominee the Republicans will lose the Senate for sure, possibly the house and many state legislatures and Governor’s offices. A third of Trump supporters will either not vote or vote Democrat. Many of Trump’s voters are people who have not voted in ten-twenty years and they will not vote for another GOPe inside candidate like Cruz. I may hold my nose but many I know will not. They see Trump as making a difference. CRuz as just one more Uniparty candidate.
Yes, Cruz is legal. Period. Trump said he had his very best lawyerS all over it and Cruz was legally ok. This is just politics.
>3. Cruz will destroy the Witch and tRump will go back to being a Democrat. He probably spend a couple of years regurgitating birther accusations against President Cruz.
I don’t think you understand how the democrats work. Once Trump called out Muslims and Latinos they’d never have him back. Remember what Hollywood did to Mel Gibson? It would be 100 times that with Trump and no act supportive of the left would ever redeem him.
His course is tied with our own no mater what at this point.
Gotta love the smell of napalm in the morning. :o)
“Show me where I have ever said I hate Don Trump.”
The sheer number of threads posted that are written by Trump haters is an indication.
The article you posted from Red State is a good start. I would not trust those fools to tell me the time of day. The only articles they post about Trump is nothing but frothy venom.
You never explained to us how you reached an epiphany on how Cruz is eligible to be president when Obama is not. Would you happen to have a copy of Cruz’s U.S. citizenship verification documents that he won’t release? As in the specific one he used to go down to the motor vehicle department somewhere in Texas when he turned 16 to get his driver’s license?
When a person tries to hide something, that is a good indication he has something to hide.
The problem is the East is population density rich states (EV). And just like with Romney, once the East votes, so goes the country.
The problem with this delegate issue, delegates being selected in closed door meetings, against the will of voters, etc., is that you have to win votes in November. Those EVs come from popular vote; and Cruz is not carrying popular vote.
As I’ve said, I believe he has been a fraud all along. And once again the “tea partiers” fell for another fraud “tea partier”.
Go look at my posts. You are posting out of ignorance to the ongoing conversation.
This has nothing to do with what TRUMP OR HIS LAWYERS SAID.
Obsessed.
Obama has been blasted for not being a NBC because he was born to only one American parent (and quite possibly not even born in this country).
Cruz was born to only one American parent, and definitely not in this country.
When people on FR blasted Obama for not being a NBC, but are embracing Cruz, they are hypocrites. Come out and admit it.
Then, you can say it is all about politics. And our constitution, the foundation it provides, and the defense of our country no longer matter. It is all politics.
You mean the open primaries where Democrats cross over and vote for Democrat-lite Trump?
You’re whining......the threads generally go with the flow of the media....and who is winning at the moment...Trump went into hiding so no news.
You may not like the NEW Trump they’re going to role out there.....you need to prepare yourself for the new ‘fabricated’ Trump who will be reading from scripted writings by others via a teleprompter, with a few Trump word salads on the outside.....it’s Trumps new... “Maturity Tour”..
I agree that someone who attacked Obama for not being a NBC, but who defend Cruz as being one, are hypocrites.
That said, I think both were NBCs. In my view, an NBC is someone who enjoys citizenship from the moment of (and due to circumstances of) birth. Cruz was one because his mother was one; ditto, Obama. (OBama also was one by virtue of being spat out in the USA, but I disagree with the Supreme Court case launching that “where born” doctrine.)
You are free to take a more restrictive view of what an NBC is. In my experience, those who claim to do so, do so only after they decide they don’t want Cruz.
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