Posted on 03/30/2016 11:52:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The April 5 Republican primary in Wisconsin is looking less like a toss-up between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz and more like a probable win for Cruz. This would be a fairly grave problem for Trump in his effort to reach 1,237 delegates ahead of the convention. Further, a new Wisconsin poll from a well-respected outfit shows horrific favorability ratings for Trump in the state among all voters, mirroring his recent national downturn. If he can’t reach enough delegates ahead of the convention, and his support shows signs of erosion in the final contests—all while his overall favorability rating dives from pretty terrible to comically toxic—it’s going to be that much harder for him to convince delegates to stick with him in Cleveland.
The just-released Marquette Law School poll for March finds Cruz at 40 percent in the state, with Trump at 30 percent and John Kasich at 21 percent. Trump’s 30 percent is actually stable from the February version of the poll … when there were three more candidates still in the race. Cruz’s support, meanwhile, has shot up 21 points in a month, while Kasich’s has increased 13. The once dearly held theory of the Trump ceiling—that his support would never exceed one-third of the primary electorate and thus would not grow even once the field had consolidated—has been shattered in some states. If this poll holds, though, the theory appears to apply to Wisconsin....
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
I hope he comes to his senses soon.
“A reasonable conclusion if Hillary is elected.”
That was his summation if TRUMP were elected.
It is already occurring under Obama, in case you haven’t noticed.
Cruz will do well in liberal Madison (seeking to stop Trump) and in Milwaukee. Trump ought to do well in all rural districts. But, since Wisconsin awards delegates by congressional district and not overall count, this will turn out to be another Missouri.
Cruz may pull out a small win on total count, but Trump will get something more than the 12 he needs to say on track for overall count.
And then, New York, and the mother of all blowouts.
You really think New Yorkers are going to vote for a Bible Thumping Texan who derided New York Values? New Yorkers have pride of place just as much as Texans.
If there were *ANY* other polls favorable to Cruz, they'd be getting shouted from the rooftops too.
But there aren't.
Trump has crossed the line this time!
It’s over for him now!
So you want to do the same thing we’ve been doing for over 70 years? Look at the mess we are in with politicians running the joint. Let’s try something different. Trump is successful. His ideas on making America great are risky but worth it for a dying nation. Cruz will be more the same. You think lobbyists die with Cruz? No way! Lobbyists will be in the unemployment line with trump because he can’t be bought since he has not taken any money...Cruz has and will owe a lot as president.
The second part is where your logic breaks down. Cruz lost the South, where he was supposed to win. That was when he lost the nomination. He is just trying to steal it from Trump now by joining Bush, Romney, Graham, and all the other politicians who keep lying to us.
He hasn’t the backing of the blue dog dems, nor the independents, nor the blacks nor the young folks.
Cruz is polling better than Trump vs Hillary. She doesn’t appeal to youth or blue dog dems. Remember the young are the unemployed. Will they vote to stay broke? Trump has ruined any hope of him winning the female vote. You know all the reasons. I like Trump a lot but he runs his campaign like a bipolar maniac. Wont work.
Good Point, if people did know who Reagan was (other than CA), it was from his TV and Movie past, and it was favorable impressions. Any resemblance Trump has to Reagan is completely fictional.
Agree with you 100% and will vote the same. The Marquette poll is off. I think it will be close but Trump will still carry the state.
You get it. And you I agree 100% especially about the rural vs urban voters.
I’ll add my state, to your dance card, but I think the “trump” here in PA will be the disaffected, underemployed, Rust Belt voters of the west (Pittsburgh) and the rural “T” that can over take the fraud of Philly this time. There ARE virtually NO Rs in Philadelphia proper, so the fraud can’t be as wide spread as usual. Trumps too smart NOT to challenge 110% Kasich votes (polls say he’s leading here) in Poll Precincts that had 115% for Obama last two times.
The first step is to redefine and reduce the role of the liberal press in determining the political direction in our nation. Trump is already making progress in that area.
The second step is to challenge and start to reverse some of the attitudes and ideas of political correctness which are really just applied to conservatives and intended to advance the agenda of the left. Trump is already making progress in that area.
The third step is to get elected and defeat the Democratic candidate. He, and his supporters are working on that.
If uniparty means concealed carry, voter id, right to work, 70 MPH, lower taxes, fully funded pensions, better hunting laws, and dozens and dozens of other similar things, then I say bring on the uniparty.
For me it was the night that Cruz joined with BLM, Bernie, and the media whores in blaming Trump for the riots. I foolishly voted for Cruz.
I personally think Trump will pull out a small win in WI, but the polling has been moving to Cruz... but even if Cruz wins, I don’t see anyone winning by 10 points or more, regardless.
WI and IN are probably the last two places Cruz has any shot of pulling an upset... maybe one of the small New England states might surprise, but that’s it.
Next Tuesday WI votes, should Cruz win, it is what it is, but the proposal that it kills Trump’s path to the nomination is silly. WI is allocated WTA by district plus WTA at the state level for some delegates. It is almost inconceivable that Trump will not win any districts in WI.
New York is the next place to vote and with more than double the delegate of WI and Trump up above 50% in most polls there with 2nd place being under 20% in most I’ve seen, Trump will get the vast majority of delegates there, so he’ll stay well above the 55% needed to keep on track to get 1237.
Its not been a great week honestly for anyone in the Republican race.... Kasich probably had the best week, mainly because he just seemed to stay below the radar. Both Trump and Cruz are both taking lumps, mostly self inflicted. So we’ll find out Tuesday how WI lands... but even if Cruz should win WI big, which I believe to be comical, it doesn’t stop Trump.
Whichever person wins, it will almost certainly be a single digit win either way. Any poll showing a 10 point lead either way in WI I think probably has some issues with its sampling vs what will show up on Election day. Next Tuesday we find out.
Though honestly, if I were to predict an unexpected surprise in WI to happen, I’d likely put it on Kasich to overperform his polling. There is definite a vibe I have seen when I visit Wisconsin, that could very well decide, screw both of these buffoons, after the ridiculousness of the past week. Wouldn’t be big enough to give Kasich a win outright, but would wind up with a bigger part of the vote than any polls are showing.
Where’s the spreadsheet analysis if Trump wins NYS, CT, PA and is strong in CA?
The Marquette poll is only Republican likely voters.
Wisconsin is an “Open” primary state - which means that Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary. Trump has lots of Blue Collar Democrat Union supporters and independents and Wisconsin has many union workers.
Cruz may be ahead of Trump, but it is a lot closer than the 10 point spread this poll suggests.
A more accurate poll would be of everyone who is likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, not just Republicans!!!
Not in a million years. You clearly don't know a thing about this Republican Party. If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, get used to saying "President Ryan."
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