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Trump Is Collapsing in Wisconsin: And that’s really bad for his delegate math
Slate ^ | March 30, 2016 | Jim Newell

Posted on 03/30/2016 11:52:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The April 5 Republican primary in Wisconsin is looking less like a toss-up between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz and more like a probable win for Cruz. This would be a fairly grave problem for Trump in his effort to reach 1,237 delegates ahead of the convention. Further, a new Wisconsin poll from a well-respected outfit shows horrific favorability ratings for Trump in the state among all voters, mirroring his recent national downturn. If he can’t reach enough delegates ahead of the convention, and his support shows signs of erosion in the final contests—all while his overall favorability rating dives from pretty terrible to comically toxic—it’s going to be that much harder for him to convince delegates to stick with him in Cleveland.

The just-released Marquette Law School poll for March finds Cruz at 40 percent in the state, with Trump at 30 percent and John Kasich at 21 percent. Trump’s 30 percent is actually stable from the February version of the poll … when there were three more candidates still in the race. Cruz’s support, meanwhile, has shot up 21 points in a month, while Kasich’s has increased 13. The once dearly held theory of the Trump ceiling—that his support would never exceed one-third of the primary electorate and thus would not grow even once the field had consolidated—has been shattered in some states. If this poll holds, though, the theory appears to apply to Wisconsin....

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: Wisconsin; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 2nddivisionvet; cruz; globalistcruz; implosion; jimnewell; leftistsource; noteligiblecruz; openboarderscruz; slate; slatereally; tedcruz; trump; unipartyposter; wisconsin
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To: Mechanicos

Cruz is an ok guy but I don’t think he can win in the general . He hasn’t the backing of the blue dog dems, nor the independents, nor the blacks nor the young folks. He really lacks any charisma and name recognition and in this day and age that’s important to getting elected . Is it right, I think not, however it is what it is. A lot of voters vote on knee jerk reactions and with two popular names such as Clinton and Trump where does a Cruz stand? Perhaps Cruz can pull it off but where have you seen headlines for him like Trump gets other than that NE crap? Every day Trump is in some sort of headline. So far after every debate the camera is on Trump or his family. Every single thing that Trump utters gets scrutinized and analyzed over anyone else. You bet I’d vote Cruz if he’s our nominee but I’m wondering if it’s possible.


101 posted on 03/31/2016 4:52:24 AM PDT by lilypad
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To: catfish1957

“I read NBF’s well stated factual #33”

Point out the facts in this line of mindless venom.

“The military will be virtually extinguished, the debt will strangle the economy, our enemies will attack from without and from with in. All of this for a misguided infatuation with a reality television, beauty contestant entrepreneur, a prize fighting promoter, a titty bar owner, a bankrupt gambling casino magnate, a grifter of vulnerable students and nutrition minded suckers, a brutal landlord, a deceiver of customers, a bully, a misogynist, a serial liar, a mountebank and a man thoroughly unworthy of the highest office in the world.”


102 posted on 03/31/2016 4:53:11 AM PDT by odawg
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To: Guenevere

“...I am with you!”

Me too! standing with you both in my kitchen in upstate New York! Stay strong, go Trump.

Trump will stem the tide of criminal illegals and work to bring back jobs for Americans and is NOT beholden to establishment pay to play money.


103 posted on 03/31/2016 4:56:07 AM PDT by stonehouse01
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The just-released Marquette Law School poll

Another hundred articles quoting this bogus Marquette poll, the one with a margin of error of 5.8% or some such?

Makes me believe Trump is comfortably ahead in Wisconsin.

104 posted on 03/31/2016 4:57:54 AM PDT by meadsjn
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To: odawg

I corrected it to member in the next post.

Every single item on that list is documented and proven, except the last one. It is a reasonable conclusion. You just don’t like having people point it out.

A larger point of his post is that Trump is disliked by people he needs in his corner to win an election. Very cogent and well-explained.


105 posted on 03/31/2016 4:58:29 AM PDT by mongrel
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To: ozaukeemom

I am undecided still, but for one, Trump has said he will appoint Supreme Court Justices like Scalia and Thomas. There is not one more important task than that.


106 posted on 03/31/2016 4:59:32 AM PDT by Phillyred
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To: michelala
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot some GOPe stooge like Ryan will win the nomination on the 3rd or 4th ballot. Romney and the other sleazebag GOP superfriends will throw Cruz away like yesterday’s garbage.

Kamikaze voter.

107 posted on 03/31/2016 5:00:00 AM PDT by Stentor
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To: mongrel

“The military will be virtually extinguished, the debt will strangle the economy, our enemies will attack from without and from with in.”

Those have been proven?


108 posted on 03/31/2016 5:01:50 AM PDT by odawg
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To: nathanbedford
When he goes down in the general election, he will take senators, representatives, conservatism and the country down with him. Hillary will nominate three or four leftist Justices who will finish us off in those areas that the Democrats themselves don't get around to.

Well deserved.

109 posted on 03/31/2016 5:01:55 AM PDT by Stentor
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To: period end of story

No doubt he will win New York, but he still will come into the convention short of a majority.


110 posted on 03/31/2016 5:02:31 AM PDT by mak5
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To: odawg

Yeah, he pretty well nailed it didn’t he?


111 posted on 03/31/2016 5:02:34 AM PDT by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my brave ancestors who fought w/ valor)
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To: Lakeshark

Reagan was much closer to Carter in the polls than Trump is today. Reagan did not have the huge percentage of people with negative perceptions against him that Trump has today.


112 posted on 03/31/2016 5:05:37 AM PDT by mak5
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Minnesota went for the Cabana Boy in a big way.
It’s ideological sister Wisconsin is just sorry that the Cabana Boy isn’t on the dance card. So they are piling on the Cruz bandwagon because it is now a cover band for the Establishment song book.


113 posted on 03/31/2016 5:05:43 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: jpsb
You Cruzers are the dumbest people on the face of the Earth.

My uncle saw their mentality jumping off cliffs in the South Pacific.

114 posted on 03/31/2016 5:06:10 AM PDT by Stentor
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To: TerrisFriend
the downfall started the night of the Utah shellacking.

The same night he won Arizona - is that the night you are talking about. That night? That downfall? That "shellacking" - the shellacking delivered against Cruz.

115 posted on 03/31/2016 5:08:44 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: ozaukeemom

Serious question can you name some things Trump has done to prove his love for our country?

He has given tons of cash to those who HATE America like Kamala Harris, Schmuck Chumer, Andy Cuomo, Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton and said Hillary would make a great president.

He also dodged the draft during Vietnam with 5 deferments and then mocked those who went and fought and were captured.


116 posted on 03/31/2016 5:11:30 AM PDT by Above My Pay Grade (Donald Trump: New York City Liberal)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So you’re admitting that Cruz is a skinflint as well? Cool!


117 posted on 03/31/2016 5:12:16 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: odawg

A reasonable conclusion if Hillary is elected. You may not agree with the premise that she will be elected if Trump is nominated, but surely you would agree that this would be the outcome of her presidency. Are you arguing that Hillary would do the opposite?


118 posted on 03/31/2016 5:14:32 AM PDT by mongrel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If you haven't noticed how far America has gone to the left, and how high the national debt has increased since that time, nor the expansion of China as a nuclear power with MIRV'd ICBMs and an economy which rivals ours, nor the proliferation of nuclear weapons to North Korea and Iran, nor the massive spread of Islam and the demographic and military hollowing out of Europe...not to mention the Supreme Court and loss of freedom...you're a closet Dem.

Moron.

119 posted on 03/31/2016 5:14:58 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

F Wisconsin. Bunch of cheese-eating liberals. That state is about as screwed up as Ohio, which went for Kasuck. Trump will win NY and CA and a host of other states.


120 posted on 03/31/2016 5:15:13 AM PDT by ohioman
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