Posted on 12/04/2015 8:00:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Heâs the GOPâs strongest candidate, right? But what if he canât win a single early primary? The Rubio problem no one is talking aboutâyet.
Everybody I know, I mean everybody, thinks Marco Rubio is the strongest Republican candidate. Yes, thereâs a debate about how strong. Some say heâd beat Hillary Clinton, some say that what with some of the extreme positions heâs taken so far in this race, heâd be hard-pressed to do much better than Mitt Romneyâs 206 electoral votes plus maybe his own Florida. So thereâs a debate about that. But there ainât much debate that heâs the, shall we say, least unelectable of the lot.
But hereâs the thing. To win the general, he has to win the primary. And on this count, as things stand, heâs hurting. I mean heâs in big trouble. Ed Kilgore of New York magazine had a post about this earlier this week, but this is worth digging into in more detail.
Start with the first four big racesâIowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Rubio is behind in all of them. In three of them, seemingly way behind....
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...
Is he? I have not seen any Texas polling.
No he isn’t. But don’t let me interfere with your fantasies.
It’ll be interesting to see how the boy Marco weathers the exposure of his mistress.
The prez debates will be the deciding factor at the last few weeks of the campaign and if Trump is there he will be decimated by her. I watched part of the last Dem debate and she was smooth, concise, and well versed. His winging it and typical unpreparedness will be his downfall. She will kill him.
I like Trump on the campaign trail but Cruz sitting in the oval office.
He is not running for his senate seat again so that says everything anyone wants to know about Rubio.He is toast.
WOW! You really believe that nonsense don’t you?
Why are the GOPES (Government Over the People Eliteist Statists) allowing the enemy dictate political stratgery ?
Because they are locked into the game rules of political correctness and âbi-partisanshipâ. Laid down by a political party which kicked out God,and the 10 commandments. (Thats why everything that comes from Democrats is a lie. They donât even believe in sin), .
Even itâs name (Democrat)is a lie. But the GOPES canât say any of the above, let alone ask why we have government in our faces; Or defund the department ordering our schools to; If, boys feel they are or can be girls, or visa versa and they must be able to shower and dress with eachother .
Let alone reduce the value of American citizenship by giving preference to those who through an open border policy who enter this country illegaly. When that country they are comming from denies Americans any of the same privledges. That includes ownership of land and voting.
Why are the GOPES (Government Over the People Eliteist Statists) allowing the enemy dictate political stratgery ?
Because they are locked into the game rules of political correctness and bi-partisanship. Laid down by a political party which kicked out God,and the 10 commandments. (Thats why everything that comes from Democrats is a lie. They do not even believe in sin), .
Even its name (Democrat)is a lie. But the GOPES can not say any of the above, let alone ask why we have government in our faces; Or defund the department ordering our schools to; If, boys feel they are or can be girls, or visa versa and they must be able to shower and dress with eachother .
Let alone reduce the value of American citizenship by giving preference to those who through an open border policy who enter this country illegaly. When that country they are comming from denies Americans any of the same privledges. That includes ownership of land and voting.
If you can’t stick with the subject .. Rubio .. ??
Don’t try to change the subject and even try to suggest that Cruz is a lightweight. You know he isn’t .. and that’s why you’re trying to paint him the same as Rubio.
Poor thing .. you’ve picked the wrong candidate .. BYE ..!!
Faint praise.
No.
Well said. In a normal race, Cruz would be the best choice by far. But Trump’s candidacy is truly special for the connection to the voters reasons you talked about.
Yep, sure do. Only time will tell if I am correct. Of course, Trump still has to survive the primaries with his foot in mouth disease. Hopefully he does, but I have my doubts.
The independents and moderates traditionally do not make their decision until the debates. Without them he loses, without them she losed.
From Hot Air Analysis of Rubio chances:
By process of elimination, it is Rubio. If you are center-right, he is not your best bet, he is your only bet. He might not get Trump fans to turn out for him but the rest of Romneys 2012 base will and Rubios personally likable enough (and Hillarys unlikable enough) that he might win swing voters this time. Or maybe he will not; maybe he is destined to lose too, but like I say, to the center-right it should not matter. If they think Cruz and Trump are sure losers in the general, and if Christie and Bush are both longshots in the primary, then Rubios the only option. And I assume most big-name Republicans, increasingly terrified by Trumps popularity and Cruzs organizational strength, understand that. If they are holding off on endorsing Rubio now, it is probably because (a) they do not want to have to insult Bush and Christie by backing Rubio until it is absolutely necessary, and (b) for maximum impact on late deciders in New Hampshire, of which there will be many, their endorsements should be rolled out in late January or early February. I will be shocked, for instance, if you do not see Romney and/or McCain announce for Rubio at the scripted moment, in order to nudge him past Jeb and Christie. The risk in waiting, though, is obvious: The longer they hold off, hoping to time their Rubio support for just the right instant, the more time Christie has to pass him in the polls and the more time Jeb has to catch up to Rubio. Imagine if Romney et al. decide they are staying put until February 2nd and then a poll drops in New Hampshire in mid-January showing Christie at 18 percent, Rubio at 15, and Jeb at 14. With the center-right that closely divided, it might be too late by then for a wave of endorsements to move the numbers much. Which means you are looking at either Trump or Cruz winning New Hampshire and the other finishing second and the center-right champion third. Where does that leave the race before South Carolina? If Rubio finishes fourth behind Christie in NH, the beating he will take in the media for underperforming will be vicious. If he hangs in there anyway, the center-right might end up in South Carolina with another divided vote while Cruz or Trump wins the state. If I were a big-name Republican like Mitt, I would endorse Rubio the first week of January, when people start paying attention to politics again, and then hit the trail for him ASAP. There is really no time to waste to beat back Christie and Bush, especially with Rubio himself being knocked lately for not putting in enough face time in the early states.
great state wide polling
when trump came in the whole topography changed. the link goes to nevada, but you can scroll up and down the states. Trump took out yeb — everywhere. would love to have the database.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Nevada
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