Posted on 04/08/2015 2:03:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In a relentless stream of Rand Paul-talk in the past 48 hours, three bits stood out for width of their perspective or freshness of their data. McKay Coppins at Buzzfeed reads the Paul campaign strategy as trying to be everything to everyone in his Party for maximal potential appeal.
Some points from Coppins:
On one side, there are those in Rand world who argue his best bet is to unite his core base of libertarian activists with elements of the GOP establishment and traditional donor class. In the other camp are advisers who say conservative evangelicals — many of whom share the liberty movement’s growing sense that Republican elites and mainstream moderates hold them in contempt — are a more natural fit.
Paul has spent time reaching out to both camps in recent years — alternating emphases with the ebb and flow of the ongoing debate within his inner-circle — but many have told BuzzFeed News over the past year that they expected the candidate to eventually pick one approach or the other. Instead, several sources said, it appears he and his chief strategist, Doug Stafford, have decided to pursue both strategies at the same time.
It certainly true that, even if the balance of his appeal is not across all camps equally—one can't say he's giving as much to evangelicals or the modal Romney fan is such exists than "liberty" elements—he seems to be trying to give at least a plausible excuse for why any given Republican should be able to see fit to vote for him, even if he might not be their favorite.
See his federalist approach to drug policy that still sneers at actual drug use or full-on legalization, a gay marriage tack of being against federal involvement while still talking of moral crisis and personal opposition, and a foreign policy on the surface both loud and proud against Radical Islam (with no specifics about who gets fought, where, and how) while opposed to nation building.
To some former anti-empire admirers, Paul has gone too far to the standard right on foreign policy to deserve any liberty support. Justin Raimondo of Antiwar.com makes that case in the Los Angeles Times, noting changes toward more hawkishness toward Iran, Russia, and ISIS and a shift from a principled anti-all-foreign aid stance.
And the 538 website is sure it has found the smoking numbers proving that Rand Paul is indeed, at least so far, losing the Ron Paul base, since he is not as of now polling with numbers as high in early states as Ron Paul won in the actual elections in 2012:
The most obvious path for Paul to win the GOP nomination is to build on the 21 percent of the vote his father earned in Iowa in 2012, and the 23 percent Paul Sr. picked up in New Hampshire that year. In a divided primary field, that might not seem so difficult; 25 percent might be enough to win both states. And with wins in the first two contests, Paul might be able to ride the Big Mo’ to the nomination.
But right now, Paul isn’t anywhere close to where his father ended up in either state in 2012. Paul is polling at a little less than 9 percent in Iowa and nearly 11 percent in New Hampshire. That’s far closer to the percentage of the vote earned by Paul Sr. in both states during his 2008 bid for the presidency, which was far less relevant than his 2012 run.
I'm not confident this proves what it asserts as far as predicting next year's vote—there is plenty of time between now and the vote for enthusiasm for Rand Paul to manifest itself, with old Paul heads and others—but it's a depressing start for the campaign.
The race has just started folks—It will be a long path and my bet is who ever will be the next president isn’t even on the radar screen yet.
I’ll bet you a steak dinner it is the first guy who declared. I worked for President Reagan, so I know Reaganesque when I see t.
Cruz is Reaganesque all right—But remember he lost the first time in 1976. Had to wait 4 years to win. Maybe Cruz will need to wait til 2020. He has many great qualities. BUT Reagan was Governor of California—Maybe Cruz needs to be Gov. of Texas first???
where I live I’ve seen the ron paul revolution bumper stickers...now they will be replaced with the rand paul revolution...and right next the 9/11 was an inside job/F Bush bumper stickers
Rand Paul is careening all over the road.
I, for one, cannot take him seriously.
Yup....right wingnut 9/11 truthers are allways PAULestinians.
That was his second time in 1976. Then-Gov. Reagan first ran for President in 1968.
...”I’ll bet you a steak dinner it is the first guy who declared. I worked for President Reagan, so I know Reaganesque when I see t.”...
Ted Cruz is so great, but so are most of the other candidates who are running. I don’t think I have seen such a field of great candidates before. I wish all of these men and Carlie Fiorina could have high level positions of power in our government. Right now, I am conflicted about who should win in 2016 . I just hope one of them will.
can’t take him serious and when he comes out with comments like this yesterday only confirms to me how nuts the man is.
“Any law> that disproportionately incarcerates people of color is repealed”
How anyone would vote for this lunatic is beyond me.
I know one of one liber-tarian and guess what; Yes they have 911 inside job sticker with a Paul sticker.
Well, my son is a Ron Paul nut and he can’t stand Rand so there’s at least one that feels this way. I have 3 kids, one conservative like me, one flaming liberal, and one libertarian...how did this happen????...lol
Frank Luntz, pollster, was on FoxNews this morning showing some graphics of the Dem/Pubbie reactions to some of Paul’s statements in his announcement.
Luntz was all ga-ga on how great Paul was at saying the right things, etc.
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My assessment of Paul, so far, is the same as stated in the title of this thread: Playing to everyone.
Paul seems to be trying to be all things to all people. He is rather wishy-washy on issues, depending on the audience.
The next president must be a strong leader to start cleaning up the mess he/she will inherit. The real Obama economy continues to be hidden from view and will impact the first term of the new president. The real Obama foreign policy more and more is a complete disaster and the next presidents for decades will face worse crises than even Carter left.
FoxNews political commentator Chris Stirwalt said this morning that the SuperPacs for Ted Cruz have raised $31 million.
My real issue is that by ideology of most Libertarians, Paul is part of the open border crowd.
Paul winning pro-life, conservative, pro-marriage, strong on defense, Evangelicals?
Reason magazine is one messed up libertarian rag.
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