Novak: A Democratic debacle

Townhall.com ^ | 10/09/03 | Robert Novak

[Pokey78]

WASHINGTON -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide victory in the California recall, an election treated as a ludicrous aberration by the bipartisan political establishment, could exert overriding political significance nationally.

California instantly is in question as a solid electoral anchor of Democratic presidential strength. Without California, chances of defeating George W. Bush next year are nil. Short of that transforming development, the tawdry performance by Democrats in the brief recall campaign creates anxiety among thoughtful party loyalists outside California who looked askance at tactics used in the country's most populous state.

For weeks, California Democrats have been confiding to me that the recall of Gov. Gray Davis was inevitable and the election of the popular actor was probable. Yet, Davis's inner circle and the state party leadership could think only of personal attacks on Schwarzenegger to avoid a Democratic debacle.

The decisive element of the recall election was the breaking of a vicious cycle that seemed to doom the California Republican Party to perpetual defeat. The model was the 2002 GOP primary for governor, where the party's conservative base rejected two candidates who could have defeated an unpopular Davis and nominated one who could not.

California never has been solidly conservative, and its electorate is less conservative than ever. Even Ronald Reagan as governor signed a bill to legalize abortion and was open-minded on homosexual rights. The decline of Caucasian voters into minority status and the continuing influx of Latinos created Democratic pretensions of inviolability and sent Republicans into a slough of despair.

The recall mechanism resolved the Republican dilemma by effectively nominating a candidate without a primary election. Schwarzenegger, who as a young body builder wore a Milton Friedman "Free to Choose" T-shirt during workouts, came across to voters as an economic libertarian conservative who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. That model spells big trouble for Democrats.

One prominent Democrat with extensive experience in California campaigns is worried on two counts. First is the potential creation of a moderate California Republican Party. Second is the vicious effort to destroy Schwarzenegger personally.

Those eleventh hour attacks cannot be laid at the door of the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times as Democratic leaders now seek to do. As soon as petitions for the recall were distributed, Democratic operatives were whispering to me about bundles of dirty linen in Arnold's closest. Everybody knew what Bob Mulholland, the poison-tongued state Democratic Party spokesman, was talking about when he predicted that Schwarzenegger would be facing "real bullets" in the campaign.

Apart from mourning the loss of the governor's office, Democrats have to consider the angry, bitter and ultimately failed campaign. Predictably, Davis in the last week was calling for criminal prosecution of Schwarzenegger based on mainly anonymous accusations of sexual misbehavior on which the one-year statute of limitations had expired. The bitter posturing of State Democratic Chairman Art Torres was sickening to many loyal Democrats.

Leading up to Tuesday's balloting, the California Democrats looked like an over-confident majority. Ending up with the feckless Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as the only alternative to Davis and Schwarzenegger was an illustration of politics by the absent-minded. Sacramento lobbyist Ritchie Ross, running Bustamante's campaign, sunk his candidate's chances when millions were accepted from Indian tribal gambling interests.

During a California reporting trip in June, I became convinced that Davis would not survive the recall. After a second visit last month, I felt Schwarzenegger would win even with conservative State Sen. Tom McClintock making it a three-way race. Pro-Arnold emotion shown at the state Republican convention Sept. 12-13 indicated that the party faithful wanted a victory more than ideological purity. For once in California, the Republicans were the pragmatists.

All this happened with the political establishment -- including the Bush White House -- as an uneasy bystander. The instruments of direct citizen participation that were devised early in the 20th century by such progressives as California's Hiram Johnson always have been hated by the professional politicians. The passage of Proposition 13 property tax reduction in the state in 1978 and the recall of Gray Davis worked just as Johnson envisioned. The benefits that may be bestowed on the Republican Party constitute a major side effect.

[Neville72]

That's a silly proposition.. If McClintock would have withdrawn Arnold would have gotten 90% or better of McClintock's vote and would have made that 60% figure.

[The KG9 Kid]

"... Moderate meaning you take half the (R) platform and half the (D) platform and run with it. Is this good or bad for conservatism in the long run?"

Weren't our friends in all the other states fearful of the belief that whatever is politically in fashion in California now would be the status quo where they lived five years later?

What you had before was California as a factory mass-producing liberal insanities and distributing it to all points East.

We threw a wrench in the works for you last night.

[ladyinred]

A real grassroots revolution happened here yesterday, with democrats, republicans, and independents joining together, forgetting our differences and ousting the corrupt Davis machine into oblivion!

[Fledermaus]

What interested me was the sheer numbers that totally abandoned Davis and the Dems.

Check out the exit poll on the Fox News' website. It's a great read.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99394,00.html

[dennisw]

Big congrats to your state on getting rid of Gray Davis and bringing in Schwarzenegger.

[JennysCool]

Hear hear, lady! Your tag is apt!

[PGalt]

Good article by Novak. Thanks for posting it.

[WOSG]

The lesson: A moderate plus conservative GOP alliance can squash the left like a bug on the sidewalk on election day.

Here's hoping we can tag the Dem nominee as a loony leftist in 2004. Should make a fun election.

[Carry_Okie]

The decisive element of the recall election was the breaking of a vicious cycle that seemed to doom the California Republican Party to perpetual defeat. The model was the 2002 GOP primary for governor, where the party's conservative base rejected two candidates who could have defeated an unpopular Davis and nominated one who could not.

How many times do I have to debunk this bull?

Gerry Parsky was given his job by Karl Rove because he was supposed to be an effective fundraiser. Parsky refused to do so for Simon because of a personal vendetta against William Simon Sr. Parsky witheld funds for donor tracking, refused to buy computers to organize GOTV, forced Sal Russo to sign the Log Cabin letter that upset Simon's conservative base, stipulated the consulting firm Simon had to hire to run his campaign (remember "Fire Gray Davis"?) and that Simon accept Ed Rollins as a consultant (who produced that stupid fundraising letter).

With all that, and the fact that Davis foisted an organized effort within the administration and in the media to defraud the public about the deficit, Simon only lost by 350,000 votes, while 1.5 million Republicans stayed home.

This popular whizdumb has to stop.

[dk/coro]

Sir, IMO you have a decision to make. Do you want to continue to go down in flames -- politically -- wrapped in conservative purity...?

Or, do you wish to participate in winning campaigns...where the more moderate -- and electable -- members of our conservative caucus contribute to the incremental success of the long-term agenda.

Strident advocacy of the "Cause" may make you feel good in front of the mirror, as you hike up your pants. But the reality of American Politics precludes excessive movement into the deep waters of the Far Right without a life-ring. Simply not do-able, if you want to make a REAL contribution to functioning conservatism in the dynamics of daily political discourse.

In three weeks McClintock will be ancient history. And it could be argued that he is just another career political mechanic -- albeit, ours -- whose "principle" could have cost us the election. But, in any case, heavy lifting still needs to be done in Sacramento by the electable candidate who WON !!

[Lancey Howard]

BUMP!

[Reagan Man]

>>>That's a silly proposition..

Not at all. It's been part of my phone and email discussions all day today. And its been mentioned by all the major media outlets.

>>>If McClintock would have withdrawn Arnold would have gotten 90% or better of McClintock's vote and would have made that 60% figure.

That works both ways. Remember, in that last Gallup poll McClintock was beating Bustamonte something like 54% to 37%. Without Arnie in the race, McClintock would have won.

[Reagan Man]

Thanks for the link.

Boy Davis took a good beating and he deserved it too.

[NormsRevenge]

Hiram Johnson FRom Governors of California website

[Reagan Man]

>>>Here's hoping we can tag the Dem nominee as a loony leftist in 2004. Should make a fun election.

If the Democrats were smart, they'd nominate Joe Lieberman. Not that he can win, but at least he's somewhat of a viable candidate, who supports the WoT in principle. The other nine eight candidates are all hard leftwing bozos.

[NormsRevenge]

How many times do I have to debunk this bull?

---

Amen

[faithincowboys]

I think it was splendid that Davis got re-elected in 2002. Can you imagine if a Republican had been elected after Davis lowballed the deficit and projected a rose-colored outlook,(kind of like in 2000)the Dems would have blamed the GOP for the deficit (like they do Dubya).

Also, Tom Mcclintock was very useful in this campaign, I think he was a great voice for conservatism in the debate. I think Arnold wouldn't have done has well had been the only Republican getting whacked by the Camejo, Hiffington and Bustamante. Mcclintock was the most articulate and competent voice in the debate and he enegized the base and the base being pragmatic went for Arnold. All in all, it all happened for a reason. I am also thrilled that we have so much footage of all the 9 dwarves and the Clintonistas with Davis, they look terrible. Their disregard for the will of the voters and allegiance to their partisan over the people is gonna do them in. It is more than likely that Dubya will have a better approval rating than Davis did (not hard to do) and they are going to have a Hell of a time making the case that he should go when they defended Davis in defiance of the will of 70% of the electorate.

[Fledermaus]

And add that Davis spent $70 million to defeat Simon.

[Jumper]

Mexicans are conservative by nature, by religion. They are democrats by hand-out and illegality. Once these people exert their sheer numbers they will affect positively the nation.

[Fledermaus]

Well said.

I look at it like elementary school. You can't shove fractions on the first graders. The left, DNC, Davis and Clinton folks have spent decades indoctrinating the population and they start with the young kids.

To me, I'll take 25-33% of my agenda knowing I can have a say on the rest rather than getting a big, fat zero. Once in the door, you start the education. You bring that common sense more and more into other programs and discussions.

I have much sympathy with the all or nothing crowd. The GOP has been horrible and taking advantages of their victories. They seem to cower when strong and attack when they are in a weak position.

If you read the exit poll Fox News did ( http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99394,00.html ) , it's surprising how the Dems will dump their own like Davis when it finally hits their pocket books or they too see the ridiculous agenda of paying off special interest.