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Novak: A Democratic debacle
Townhall.com ^ | 10/09/03 | Robert Novak

Posted on 10/08/2003 9:28:07 PM PDT by Pokey78

WASHINGTON -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide victory in the California recall, an election treated as a ludicrous aberration by the bipartisan political establishment, could exert overriding political significance nationally.

California instantly is in question as a solid electoral anchor of Democratic presidential strength. Without California, chances of defeating George W. Bush next year are nil. Short of that transforming development, the tawdry performance by Democrats in the brief recall campaign creates anxiety among thoughtful party loyalists outside California who looked askance at tactics used in the country's most populous state.

For weeks, California Democrats have been confiding to me that the recall of Gov. Gray Davis was inevitable and the election of the popular actor was probable. Yet, Davis's inner circle and the state party leadership could think only of personal attacks on Schwarzenegger to avoid a Democratic debacle.

The decisive element of the recall election was the breaking of a vicious cycle that seemed to doom the California Republican Party to perpetual defeat. The model was the 2002 GOP primary for governor, where the party's conservative base rejected two candidates who could have defeated an unpopular Davis and nominated one who could not.

California never has been solidly conservative, and its electorate is less conservative than ever. Even Ronald Reagan as governor signed a bill to legalize abortion and was open-minded on homosexual rights. The decline of Caucasian voters into minority status and the continuing influx of Latinos created Democratic pretensions of inviolability and sent Republicans into a slough of despair.

The recall mechanism resolved the Republican dilemma by effectively nominating a candidate without a primary election. Schwarzenegger, who as a young body builder wore a Milton Friedman "Free to Choose" T-shirt during workouts, came across to voters as an economic libertarian conservative who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. That model spells big trouble for Democrats.

One prominent Democrat with extensive experience in California campaigns is worried on two counts. First is the potential creation of a moderate California Republican Party. Second is the vicious effort to destroy Schwarzenegger personally.

Those eleventh hour attacks cannot be laid at the door of the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times as Democratic leaders now seek to do. As soon as petitions for the recall were distributed, Democratic operatives were whispering to me about bundles of dirty linen in Arnold's closest. Everybody knew what Bob Mulholland, the poison-tongued state Democratic Party spokesman, was talking about when he predicted that Schwarzenegger would be facing "real bullets" in the campaign.

Apart from mourning the loss of the governor's office, Democrats have to consider the angry, bitter and ultimately failed campaign. Predictably, Davis in the last week was calling for criminal prosecution of Schwarzenegger based on mainly anonymous accusations of sexual misbehavior on which the one-year statute of limitations had expired. The bitter posturing of State Democratic Chairman Art Torres was sickening to many loyal Democrats.

Leading up to Tuesday's balloting, the California Democrats looked like an over-confident majority. Ending up with the feckless Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as the only alternative to Davis and Schwarzenegger was an illustration of politics by the absent-minded. Sacramento lobbyist Ritchie Ross, running Bustamante's campaign, sunk his candidate's chances when millions were accepted from Indian tribal gambling interests.

During a California reporting trip in June, I became convinced that Davis would not survive the recall. After a second visit last month, I felt Schwarzenegger would win even with conservative State Sen. Tom McClintock making it a three-way race. Pro-Arnold emotion shown at the state Republican convention Sept. 12-13 indicated that the party faithful wanted a victory more than ideological purity. For once in California, the Republicans were the pragmatists.

All this happened with the political establishment -- including the Bush White House -- as an uneasy bystander. The instruments of direct citizen participation that were devised early in the 20th century by such progressives as California's Hiram Johnson always have been hated by the professional politicians. The passage of Proposition 13 property tax reduction in the state in 1978 and the recall of Gray Davis worked just as Johnson envisioned. The benefits that may be bestowed on the Republican Party constitute a major side effect.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calgov2002; gwb2004; robertnovak
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1 posted on 10/08/2003 9:28:07 PM PDT by Pokey78
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To: Pokey78
Thank you, Gov. Hiram Johnson...
2 posted on 10/08/2003 9:34:51 PM PDT by ambrose
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3 posted on 10/08/2003 9:35:13 PM PDT by Support Free Republic (Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
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To: Pokey78
"...the...creation of a moderate California Republican Party."

Yep, I'd say we've got that here big-time.

4 posted on 10/08/2003 9:36:11 PM PDT by doingtherightthing ((I voted for Tom and Bustamante didn't win after all, did he south40?)
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To: Pokey78
For weeks, California Democrats have been confiding to me that the recall of Gov. Gray Davis was inevitable and the election of the popular actor was probable.

SOMEBODY LEAKED TO NOVAK!!!!!!!!!!!!! This calls for a special prosecutor.

5 posted on 10/08/2003 9:36:32 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (mislead, misled, lie, lied, failed, failure,leaked, revenge, etc., etc., etc..)
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To: Pokey78
Thanks for posting this.

Part of our problem is the professionalism of the electorial staff, the statisticians, lobbyists, and campaign managers who package issues on both sides. Elections end up being close, and then the ability of one side or another gerrymander the districts so a close election will almost always express the success of the previous gerrymander.

only when the gerrymander is outdated from growth, or a vast shift in the electorate can the professionalism be overcome. The state boundaries are less succeptable to gerrymandering, so the Senate is now our most variable federal government body, the opposite of the founders intent.

A cure?

one option is proportional representation, instead of first past the post, but that would help minor parties more than the electorate. I don't think it would be an improvement to have the decisions made in a smoke filled room by professional politicians assembling coalitions.

second option would be to come up with an algorithm that would "randomly" distribute districts along the political spectrum, so one district would have the most right wing electorate, (sutter county) another would have the most left wing (sanfrancisco?) and the rest would be distributed in between. I put that out, and suggest that some Freeper working on his polysci or applied math PHD might take up the challenge.
6 posted on 10/08/2003 9:39:10 PM PDT by donmeaker (Bigamy is one wife too many. So is monogamy.)
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To: Pokey78
Everybody knew what Bob Mulholland, the poison-tongued state Democratic Party spokesman, was talking about when he predicted that Schwarzenegger would be facing "real bullets" in the campaign.

He is Wormtongue.

7 posted on 10/08/2003 9:39:36 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space for rent)
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To: Pokey78
the potential creation of a moderate California Republican Party

Moderate meaning you take half the (R) platform and half the (D) platform and run with it. Is this good or bad for conservatism in the long run?

8 posted on 10/08/2003 9:42:20 PM PDT by Sir Gawain
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To: Pokey78
For once in California, the Republicans were the pragmatists.

Pragmatism is not a mortal sin.

9 posted on 10/08/2003 9:43:01 PM PDT by sinkspur (Adopt a dog or a cat from a shelter! You'll save at least one life, maybe two!)
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To: Jeff Chandler
Novak leaked it..he's gotta go.
10 posted on 10/08/2003 9:45:41 PM PDT by teeples (A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill)
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To: Pokey78
Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide victory in the California recall...

Let's be honest. Arnold's 48% was not an overwhelming victory by itself. If you add in McClintock's 13%, you reach 61% and that is a great majority of votes for one side. The Republican side. Not the Arnold side.

11 posted on 10/08/2003 9:46:36 PM PDT by Reagan Man (The few, the proud, the conservatives.)
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To: Sir Gawain
"Moderate meaning you take half the (R) platform and half the (D) platform and run with it. Is this good or bad for conservatism in the long run?"

However one might wish to characterize it -- "half a loaf is better than none", e.g. -- it represents a shift to the right. And less power for the left.

And those are both good things.

12 posted on 10/08/2003 9:49:20 PM PDT by okie01 (www.ArmorforCongress.com...because Congress isn't for the morally halt and the mentally lame.)
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To: Pokey78
Would have thought also that Terry McAulliffe's head would have been served on a platter by now. . .

Of course,there is 'no low', too 'low' for a committed rat; but I hate to see where this takes them as they prepare even more desperately, to discredit/undermine Arnold; and with even more contemptible passion; if possible; President Bush.

And I do wonder what Hillary's muse is saying to her now.

13 posted on 10/08/2003 9:54:53 PM PDT by cricket
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To: Sir Gawain
It certainly is better for California to get a 1/2 D 1/2 R governor instead of another three years of a pure, far left "D". Given that the state seems unwilling to elect a pure conservative a 1/2 way conservative is the best choice.
14 posted on 10/08/2003 9:59:20 PM PDT by Jack Black
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To: Sir Gawain
It certainly is better for California to get a 1/2 D 1/2 R governor instead of another three years of a pure, far left "D". Given that the state seems unwilling to elect a pure conservative a 1/2 way conservative is the best choice.
15 posted on 10/08/2003 9:59:34 PM PDT by Jack Black
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To: Pokey78
Words of advice for Democrats: You live by the Clinton, you die by the Clinton.

Hey Bob Mulholland, you worthless piece of human slime, so Arnold was going to face "real bullets"? How did you like both barrels right between your eyes last night?
16 posted on 10/08/2003 10:00:56 PM PDT by Fledermaus (I DONATED! HAVE YOU? DONATE NOW OR I'LL HAVE YOU TAKEN OFF THE DO NOT CALL LIST)
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To: sinkspur
Some think pragmatism is a heretical break from the "Holy Scripture" of rigid ideology, punishable by burning at the stake.
17 posted on 10/08/2003 10:01:58 PM PDT by My2Cents (Well...there you go again.)
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To: okie01; Pokey78; *calgov2002; AuntB; jam137; GmbyMan; DoctorZIn; fooman; PeoplesRep_of_LA; ...
All this happened with the political establishment -- including the Bush White House -- as an uneasy bystander.
The instruments of direct citizen participation that were devised early in the 20th century by such progressives as California's Hiram Johnson always have been hated by the professional politicians. The passage of Proposition 13 property tax reduction in the state in 1978 and the recall of Gray Davis worked just as Johnson envisioned.

The benefits that may be bestowed on the Republican Party constitute a major side effect.

OFFICIAL BUMP(TOPIC)LIST

18 posted on 10/08/2003 10:03:30 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (All we need from a Governor is a VETO PEN!!!)
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To: Pokey78
Yet, Davis's inner circle and the state party leadership could think only of personal attacks on Schwarzenegger to avoid a Democratic debacle.

Novak seems to be getting an inkling of what FReepers have known for years -- the Democrats have no ideas, no energy, no principles, no shame. All they have is pandering, attacks on their opponents and legal chicanery. There is no there there, anymore.

19 posted on 10/08/2003 10:08:06 PM PDT by JennysCool
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To: ambrose
Also Arnold talking yesterday about REDISTRICTING Kalifornia........
20 posted on 10/08/2003 10:08:24 PM PDT by jdontom
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