LA Times Recall Poll Methodology (Important Information Regarding Today's Recall Poll)

The LA Times ^ | September 12, 2003 | The LA Times

[Pubbie]

Earlier this week, Field Research Corp. released a poll on the election to recall Gov. Gray Davis. Today, The Times Poll comes out with somewhat different results.

The two polls are more alike than different. Both found the same lineup among the top candidates to replace Gov. Gray Davis — Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the lead with support from 30% of likely voters surveyed, Arnold Schwarzenegger in second place with 25% and state Sen. Tom McClintock in third place.

[DiamondDon1]

I forgot to mention that the poll had to be supplemented by Latinos again, just like last time...To stem criticism, they got an outside firm to get a good cross-section of Latinos.

The question that arises is why are they having trouble with JUST the Latino portion of the poll?

Bustamante is a Latino...Supplementing the Latino portion...Coincidence???

Me thinks not.

DD

[ElkGroveDan]

You guys are killing me!

[KQQL]

If the LA Times is underestimating the strength of support for Recall, then that means they are underweighting the number of Conservative Republicans that will show up.

Not correct....LA Times poll ...polled more conservatives than SURVEY USA and the FIELD POll...

and that's why their poll is screwed up....if MCClintock is at 18%..then why is the RECall at 50%... FIELD POLL and SURVEY USA have good track record in CA...

[FairOpinion]

"Of the likely voters in The Times Poll sample, 38% identified themselves as conservatives. In the Field Poll, only 32% identified themselves as conservatives. That difference could partially explain McClintock's better showing in the Times survey."

I.e. There is no "McClintock surge" -- the Times just interviewed more conservatives with the specific intent to give the impression of a McC surge, to keep the conservatives voting for him.

[Pubbie]

SurveyUSA had McClintock at 16%.

[NormsRevenge]

There ya go again. Impugning the Manure Movers. Da noive!

What next? Mom and apple pie. LOL

[South40]

I'd say the same thing about your ilk shoving this liberal disaster down our throats, however I'm consistent with my stated principles, how 'bout you?

You're confused. I've never shoved anything down your throat. Your personal life means nothing to me and I'm not a part of it in any way.

I do have a question for you though.

How, when he remains double digits behind, is mcclintock going to prevent a bustamante win?

[DiamondDon1]

Not to barge into a stimulating debate (which means I barge in...)

Not correct....LA Times poll ...polled more conservatives than SURVEY USA and the FIELD POll...

and that's why their poll is screwed up....if MCClintock is at 18%..then why is the RECall at 50%... FIELD POLL and SURVEY USA have good track record in CA...

One explanation for the poll numbers is that Independent Voters (according to the Slimes) want McClintock more than Arnold (28 percent to 14 percent) which looks wierd.

According to their number conservatives favor Arnold (39 percent to 38 percent)...also wierd.

Moderates (whatever that means) perfer Arnold (21 percent to 10 percent) as would be expected.

So who are these Independents that want McClintock, and who are these Conservatives favoring Arnold?

This poll is like throwing darts, at a rotating dartboard, in a hurricane...

DD

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

How, when he remains double digits behind, is mcclintock going to prevent a bustamante win?

Voter turn out.

They said the same defeatest things based on the polls for Prop 13 and 187. Reagan was supposed to lose. When you actually have a candidate who can motivate people on issues, they turn out, and it doesn't show in the polls because all polls are run by liberals. (Remember how many seats the GOP was supposed to lose in 02?)In fact, I'd say Tom the guy to beat if it wasn't for the misguidance of the base on the lie that (R)nold is a sure thing.

[South40]

There ya go again. Impugning the Manure Movers. Da noive!

My alologies to manure movers everywhere. They're far more an "es-steamed" crowd than the average Mcclintock supporter.

[South40]

Dream on! I'll remind you of that post on Oct. 8th.

[jmaroneps37]

McClintock can only help one of two men to become the next governor of mexifornia, and he aint one of'em!
He can be a hero, step aside and wait for his time ( which just isn't now!) or; he can elect an agent of a foreign contry. If busta-my-wallet is elected on Oct7, on Oct 8th he will informally surrender our largest state to mecha.
The formal surrender will be on cinco demayo.

[DiamondDon1]

Oh Fair...

I.e. There is no "McClintock surge" -- the Times just interviewed more conservatives with the specific intent to give the impression of a McC surge, to keep the conservatives voting for him.

Here are the two polls...

http://images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2003-08/9130937.pdf

http://images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2003-09/9363816.pdf

"Independents" were at 20 to 10 Arnold, now they are 28 to 14 McClintock.

"Conservatives" were at 35 to 24 Arnold, now they are 39 to 38 McClintock (we are helping conservatives understand...)

"Republicans" were at 39 to 21 Arnold, now they are 45 to 31 Arnold (McClintock was down 18 points, now down to 14 points...)

As has been pointed out by others...

Nothing to see here...no surge is taking place...move along...move along...

DD

[TheDon]

The recall will be successful and Arnold will be the new govenator with over 50% of the vote, assuming of course, that Tom takes one for the team.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

No problem, but remember, Tom has to be ahead of (R)nold beforehand.

I like reminders, you wouldn't believe the excel document out there of the names that will be reminded if your guy wins and raises taxes, destroying our economy.

[AndyTheBear]

"Independents" were at 20 to 10 Arnold, now they are 28 to 14 McClintock.

"Conservatives" were at 35 to 24 Arnold, now they are 39 to 38 McClintock (we are helping conservatives understand...)

"Republicans" were at 39 to 21 Arnold, now they are 45 to 31 Arnold (McClintock was down 18 points, now down to 14 points...)

The SurveyUSA poll has "Republicans" and "Conservatives" favoring Arnold at around 50% and McClintock around 25%.

Somthing here is fishy.

[DiamondDon1]

Somthing here is fishy.

Agreed...

I am for McClintock, but this fishwrap is smelling worse than the fish...

DD

[Tempest]

SurveyUSA 09/10/2003 SurveyUSA 08/26/2003
Remove Davis 62% Remove Davis 64%
Keep Davis 37% Keep Davis 35%

Schwarzenegger 39% (-6%) Schwarzenegger 45%
Bustamante 29% (0%) Bustamante 29%
McClintock 16% (+5%) McClintock 11%
Ueberroth 6% (0%) Ueberroth 6%
Huffington 3% (0%) Huffington 3%
Other 4% (0%) Other 4%
Undecided 3% (+1%) Undecided 2%

Certain Voters (MOE 3.7%)
-Ueberoth is out of the race

---

09/09/2003 Field Poll 08/15/2003 Field Poll
Yes on Recall 55% Yes on Recall 58%
No on Recall 40% No on Recall 37%

Bustamante 30% (+5%) Bustamante 25%
Schwarzenegger 25% (+3%) Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 13% (+4%) McClintock 9%
Ueberoth 5% (0%) Ueberoth 5%
Arianna 3% (-1%) Arianna 4%
Camejo 2% (0%) Camejo 2%

Likely Voters (MOE 4.5%)
W/O MCLINTOCK:
Schwarzenegger 33% - Bustamante 31%
-Ueberoth is out of the race

---

LA Times 09/12/03 08/00/03
For Recall 50% For Recall 50%
Against Recall 47% Against Recall 45%

Cruz 30% (-5%) Cruz 35%%
Arnold 25% (+3%) Arnold 22%
McClintock 18% (+6%) McClintock 12%
Ueberoth 8% (+1%) Ueberoth 7%
Arianna 3% (0%) Arianna 3%
Camejo 2% (0%) Camejo 2%

Likely Voters (MOE 3%)
-Ueberoth is out of the race

---

Stanford/Knowledge Networks poll
09/10/2003

Recall leads 62% - 38%
Arnold 40%
Cruz 28%
McClintock 8%
Ueberoth 7%
Arianna 1%
Others 7%

Likely Voters (MOE 4.3%)
-Ueberoth is out of the race


WOW!!! It's like the Florida recount! McClintock keeps asking for a recount and he just keeps on losing!!!

[NormsRevenge]

I'm shocked no one posted has yet posted the smiley face that was found in a cow pie. ;-)

[South40]

I like reminders, you wouldn't believe the excel document out there of the names that will be reminded if your guy wins and raises taxes, destroying our economy.

Firstly, he's not "my guy". He's anything but my choice for governor.

But he does stand the best chance of keeping bustamante from implementing his racist and socialist agenda.

It might be funny how many of you overlook that one point if it weren't so very pathetic.

And if you think he's going to destroy the economy you're further out there than your previous posts would suggest. You may not like his social policies (I don't either) but he is a fiscal conservative.

Vote for Mcclintock, elect bustamante.