Bush campaign strategist says 'election will be tough'

The Dallas Morning News ^ | July 26, 2003 | By DAVID JACKSON / The Dallas Morning News

[MeekOneGOP]

Bush campaign strategist says 'election will be tough'

He believes divided electorate may make race as close as 2000

07/27/2003

By DAVID JACKSON / The Dallas Morning News

NEW YORK – One of President Bush's top campaign strategists warned fellow Republicans on Saturday that the 2004 race could be every bit as close as the overtime contest of 2000.

"Ladies and gentlemen, this next election will be tough," campaign manager Ken Mehlman told the summer meeting of the Republican National Committee. "It will be an incredible challenge. It will include difficult days."

Some of those days have already arrived, as Democrats pound Mr. Bush over unemployment, the rising death toll in Iraq, and the use of intelligence to justify the war on Saddam Hussein.

AP

Campaign manager Ken Mehlman told members of the Republican National Committee to take nothing for granted.

Mr. Mehlman and other campaign officials said they keys to a victory are defending Mr. Bush's successes in fighting terrorism and reviving the economy and building a strong organization down to the local level

As the RNC wrapped up the weekend meeting in the city that will host next year's convention, the Republicans face what many analysts see as a still-closely divided electorate, despite GOP successes in the 2002 congressional races and Mr. Bush's high-but-slipping approval ratings.

Democrats are seeking to dent that popularity by questioning whether Mr. Bush exaggerated intelligence to justify the invasion of Iraq. They are challenging the administration's credibility on a variety of fronts, such as the higher-than-projected budget deficits and costs of occupying Iraq.

"When George W. Bush ran for president three years ago, he promised us an era of responsibility in Washington," said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a presidential candidate. "Instead, we've got an era of irresponsibility unparalleled in our history."

Mr. Mehlman said many of the Democratic critics supported military action against Mr. Hussein, calling their criticism a reversal designed "for short-term political gain among Democrat primary voters."

"If they're willing to sacrifice principle on this, just imagine what they'll say and do to try to get elected," Mr. Mehlman said.

Mr. Bush's job approval ratings remain well over 50 percent, normally a threshold for re-election. But Republican officials said they want to ward off any notion of complacency, especially as the Democratic field narrows to a single challenger early next year.

"Our numbers look good today," Mr. Mehlman said. "But as we've predicted for some time, those numbers will come down. We must prepare for an election every bit as close and every bit as hard fought as the 2000 election."

To an extent, the Republicans are going up against history. No president who lost the popular vote, as Mr. Bush did against Al Gore, has won a second term in the White House.

Mr. Mehlman pointed out the Republicans have not re-elected a president and kept a congressional majority in the same election since 1924.

"The last time that happened, Calvin Coolidge was sitting in the Oval Office," Mr. Mehlman said.

As for the divided nature of modern politics, Mr. Mehlman pointed to states that went for one party or the other in at least three of the last five presidential elections. The result: 273 electoral votes for Republicans, 265 for Democrats. A candidate needs 270 to win.

Mr. Mehlman said that next year's election presents both "an opportunity" and "a challenge" and that Republicans need to be in position to seize the moment.

RNC officials said a new get-out-the-vote effort keyed their successes in November, when Republicans re-captured the Senate and increased their majority in the U.S. House. They said they will need an even better effort to translate that into a full Republican realignment.

"2004 will show us if the incremental gains in 2002 are enduring," said Nicolle Devenish, communications director for Mr. Bush's campaign. "And anyone who says they know the answer to that doesn't know."

E-mail djackson@dallasnews.com

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Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/latestnews/stories/072703dnnatgop.a91f3.html

[Lazamataz]

You better count on a tough election. The economy is still trash, and the exportation of white-collar jobs bodes very poorly for Messr. Bush.

[Lazamataz]

sadly you are right, I voted for him and I guess I will have no choose but to do so again. But I am starting to really hate republicans. But Democrats are pure evil.

It's really f***** depressing.

[MeekOneGOP]

I think the Administration is setting up quite well. Preparing for a tough battle.
It's the responsible thing to do.

[MissAmericanPie]

You are one of the old timers that I have so much respect for. When I first signed on F.R. I was in awe of everyone with a 1998/1999 sign up date. You guys had really done your part to pull something off that all the odds were against and was so powerful that everyone from Presidents to media talking heads read, quoted, and payed attention to.

You guys may be responsible for Fox News, and have awakened conservative voices all over the nation. I could never find the words to express my respect and admiration. I'm saddened to see so few, with those magical dates that should go down in the history books, posting anymore.

[Redleg Duke]

Well, like I said, don't let the door bump yer brain on the way out. The reason the RATS keep in power is primarily single-issue, conservative "purists" like you and the Libertarians. They get you to "vote your conscience" and "send a message".

Lenin had a name for you folks..."Useful fools"!

[rwfromkansas]

Heck, I would wish I could vote 10 times if Condi is VP...:)

But, probably Cheney is in and he is a good guy.

Unless he bows out for Condi.

[rwfromkansas]

Look, an economy will adjust when situations change. America is moving toward an information economy and leaving the industrial economy behind.

If America is to survive and jobs will be created, people will realize this and adjust to the new type of economy.

I have sympathy for those losing their jobs to people overseas. IT SUCKS THAT THIS IS HAPPENING. But, economically, it makes sense to do that and costs far more to keep the people here than to let them go. Thus, in that sense, it actually hurts our economic growth by keeping them here.

It is a tough situation, but macroeconomics does not allow for a simple "bring back the jobs" solution, unless you want to see the companies just go out of business or pay lower salaries to workers to survive with all workers based in America.

[ladyinred]

Everything you said, plus, the lying cheating media will help them at all costs to lie, cheat and steal.

[rdb3]

The GOP is now on record for supporting open borders, importing cheap goods from low labor countries, and out sourcing IT and service jobs.

Gotta link(s) to confirm your assertions?

[rdb3]

This used to be a site for conservatives, now it is a GOP site.

Well, the only answer for you then is to leave, right?

[jpsb]

Thank you very much.

[LS]

I'm not sure I follow: you aren't "disagreeing" with me, so much as saying that in fact the numbers could be WAY over on Bush's side?

[jmc813]

Someone should tell this Mehlman to go back to DU with the other malcontent paleoc, uh, er, never mind.

[speekinout]

I'm not really disagreeing with you; your scenario is a plausible one. I just don't think it's likely. I think the voter mix in 2004 will be quite different than what we have seen before.
Your analysis was based on what typical voters do. I think it's quite likely that we will have a different set of voters in 2004.

I think it could be a blow-out either way, but more likely for Bush.

[LS]

Well, no one is a bigger "Bushie" than I, and politically I think some of the things that repulse me were wise. However, he is flirting with turning off enough of the base to hurt him. In 2000, he benefitted from "broken glass" Republicans sickened by Clinton, and a John Kerry or a Howard Dean simply won't bring those same folks out in the same numbers.

However, a Hillary . . . .

[speekinout]

I'm one of the people who will work to get the GOP vote out in 2004. I haven't always agreed with what W's done, but there isn't a Dem candidate that I could tolerate.

[LS]

You know, while I write editorials and teach my students, I never have been able to connect with the GOP organizations, even though I've offered to help here in Dayton. Part of the problem is that we live in the absolute northernmost part of a county, but do all our work/business in the county right above us. Still, I think I'll make new efforts this year.

[speekinout]

I know what you mean. I live in a Dem county. It's been hard to find GOP orgs. to work with. I've been persistent, and finally found GOP groups to work with.

[jpsb]

I told you so.

[jpsb]

i told you so.