I'm not really disagreeing with you; your scenario is a plausible one. I just don't think it's likely. I think the voter mix in 2004 will be quite different than what we have seen before.
Your analysis was based on what typical voters do. I think it's quite likely that we will have a different set of voters in 2004.
I think it could be a blow-out either way, but more likely for Bush.
Well, no one is a bigger "Bushie" than I, and politically I think some of the things that repulse me were wise. However, he is flirting with turning off enough of the base to hurt him. In 2000, he benefitted from "broken glass" Republicans sickened by Clinton, and a John Kerry or a Howard Dean simply won't bring those same folks out in the same numbers.
However, a Hillary . . . .